From: Amara D. Angelica (amara@kurzweilai.net)
Date: Sat Jun 23 2001 - 13:12:23 MDT
Dani Eder said:
>The latest list of the top 500 supercomputers in the
>world has just been published (www.top500.org). The
>sum of all 500 machines now is at 108 Tflops, which,
>using Moravec's estimate, is equivalent to 1.08 human
>brain power.
Ray Kurzweil estimates 20,000 TF/s for human
brain power, based on a nominal neural-firing speed
of 200 instructions per second for each connection
(100 TF/s x 200). This is 200 times higher
than Hans Moravec's figure, which doesn't include the
neural-firing speed.
Kurzweil estimates that "supercomputers will achieve
one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers
will do so by around 2020."
References:
Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines, p. 103 and
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?m=1
Moravec, Robots, p. 54 and
http://cart.frc.ri.cmu.edu/users/hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2000/Cereb
rum.html
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