From: Gordon Worley (redbird@rbisland.cx)
Date: Tue Jan 23 2001 - 15:00:16 MST
At 10:32 PM +0100 1/23/01, Joakim Almgren Gāndara wrote:
>The Singularity is sometimes referred to as a "wall" that we can't see
>beyond, a point in time where we can no longer predict anything. Isn't the
>"wall" situated a bit _before_ the Singularity? Isn't the "wall" in fact an
>event horizon?
The wall is always moving. Today it is situated just a tinny bit
_after_ the Singularity. Why? Do we know what the Singularity is?
Yes. Have we begun to *speculate* on what its effects might be?
Yes. Do we know (in the sense that we know that the Singularity is
coming) what will happen afterward? No. So, right now we can make
guesses at what it might be like to be posthuman on a Singularity
computer, but those are just guesses. The wall is the point that we
can't see beyond. At the moment, short term effects of the
Singularity can be quasi known and guesses are made at the long term,
but in 10 years we may already be able to see technologies that will
come after the Singularity. Before Vinge thought of the Singularity,
maybe it was AI that seemed to be the point where everything would
change, or nanotech, or whatever. As much as the Singularity will
change things, the past trend suggest that something even more
amazing lies beyond that. Luckily for this list, the person that
figures out whatever the next thing is probably is sitting somewhere,
reading my post right now. Either that, or ve has yet to be born.
At any rate, my main idea is that the wall is moving all of the time.
Today the Singularity seems like it will change everything, and it
indead may, but as we get closer to it and as other technologies
develop, it may not be as socking as it seems now, since we will have
already thought up more shocking stuff (and have moved on to the sl5
list).
-- Gordon Worley http://www.rbisland.cx/ mailto:redbird@rbisland.cx PGP: C462 FA84 B811 3501 9010 20D2 6EF3 77F7 BBD3 B003
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