From extropians-request@extropy.org Thu Dec 2 14:51:13 1993 Return-Path: Received: from usc.edu by chaph.usc.edu (4.1/SMI-4.1+ucs-3.0) id AA02370; Thu, 2 Dec 93 14:51:10 PST Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: from news.panix.com by usc.edu (4.1/SMI-3.0DEV3-USC+3.1) id AA25836; Thu, 2 Dec 93 14:50:56 PST Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: by news.panix.com id AA13576 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for more@usc.edu); Thu, 2 Dec 1993 17:41:37 -0500 Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 17:41:37 -0500 Message-Id: <199312022241.AA13576@news.panix.com> To: Extropians@extropy.org From: Extropians@extropy.org Subject: Extropians Digest X-Extropian-Date: December 2, 373 P.N.O. [22:41:00 UTC] Reply-To: extropians@extropy.org Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Status: O Extropians Digest Thu, 2 Dec 93 Volume 93 : Issue 335 Today's Topics: Re: Shower products. [1 msgs] Shoes [1 msgs] CHAT: Shoes for Industry [2 msgs] Copyright under Crypto Anarchy [1 msgs] META: Tit for Tat and List Etiquette [4 msgs] Meta: Improved Service [1 msgs] Random Thoughts [2 msgs] Shoes [5 msgs] Shower products. [5 msgs] Start-Up VirtSem: Charity for Entrepreneurs [2 msgs] Administrivia: No admin msg. Approximate Size: 58253 bytes. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 1 Dec 1993 21:29:25 -0800 From: kwatson@netcom.com (Kennita Watson) Subject: Shower products. Tim writes: David Freidman writes: ... > Is this a control that gets the desired temperature by mixing the water, as > in almost all American systems, or does the shower have its own water > heater, with the control setting its temperature, which would make it a > more convenient version of Tim May's solution? If the former, could you > check the brand name? It probably is not available here, but one never > knows. Wait, I haven't spoken up in this thread, so it wasn't me. At least I don't think I have. In any case, I'm pretty skeptical of any nozzle-based local heater (let alone a cooler!). The water is moving by too quickly for any system to locally alter the temperature by more than tiny fractions of a degree. I think the problem David wants to solve comes from having cold water in the pipes when he first turns on the faucet. I thought of a system involving a local heater that kept a small amount of water very hot for mixing with what first came through the pipes, so even the first spray would come out at the desired temperature (as determined by a thermostat setting, in my view). Once the cold water had flushed from the pipes, hot water from the main heater would flow and the local heater could cut out and store/heat some more water for the next time. I don't think it would save you for very long if you ran the main heater out of hot water, though. Kennita Kennita Watson | Do I want to live forever? Maybe not, but give kwatson@netcom.com | me one or two hundred thousand years to think HEx: KNNTA | it over. - KLW, 1993 ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Dec 93 21:54:57 PST From: Eli Brandt Subject: Shower products. > From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) > In any case, I'm pretty skeptical of any nozzle-based local heater > (let alone a cooler!). The water is moving by too quickly for any > system to locally alter the temperature by more than tiny fractions of > a degree. On-demand systems exist, though they aren't located in the nozzle itself. I've heard they degrade ungracefully when you exceed their capacity, though. Lesse, we're heating water maybe (115-60)5/9 ~= 30 degrees. Each gallon/min is about 4 L/min = 0.067 L/sec, so (67)(30)(4.184) ~= 8 kW per gallon/min. This seems plausible. Eli ebrandt@jarthur.claremont.edu ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 01:06:50 -0800 From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: Copyright under Crypto Anarchy >Tim- > >What's the Information Liberation Front? Is there a written agenda I could >look at ? > >-- >Best regards, > >Curtis D. Frye >cfrye@ciis.mitre.org >"If you think I speak for MITRE, I'll tell you how much they > pay me and make you feel foolish." No, it's just some people who find and scan various docs. We've got a source in Russia (apparently) who's got some Soviet defense secrets and is scanning them, then sending them through remailers, and so on. Some stuff on the Jasons--run by your own company, as you may know. We're gonna crack this egg wide open. --Tim May -- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: by arrangement Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 07:39:43 -0500 (EST) From: Harry Shapiro Subject: Random Thoughts a conscious being, David Friedman wrote: > > >Please elaborate, long description is appreciated. > >What criteria are to be used to decide whether you would like a book or not? > > It is an application of something that I think used to be called > multidimensional voting theory, back when I brushed against it long ago. This is something that Carl Feynman is activly working on at MIT. This is something we are planning to to in one form or another for the list. I call it collaborative filtering (CF) /hawk ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 06:45:32 -0600 (CST) From: derek@cs.wisc.edu (Derek Zahn) Subject: Random Thoughts David Friedman: > Consider an n-dimensional space, representing characteristics of books. No > assumptions are made initially about what characteristics, or even what > sort of characteristics, each dimension represents. A reader's ideal book > is a point somewhere in the space. A book is a point somewhere in the > space. Here's a similar scheme, originally designed for filtering netnews but applicable to any text: After reading a text, the user gives that text a rating. Ratings are both positive and negative and should average in the long run to zero. A vector is created from the text in the following simple way: A text's vector is in an N-dimensional space, where N is simply the number of all words in the language (or, to make it more tractable, a subset of the language). This vector is then multiplied by the rating and the result averaged in to the user's "preference vector". When considering the appropriateness of a new text, just take that text's vector and do a dot product with the preference vector (both normalized). This should give a rough indication of interest. Note that content-free words like "the" don't need any special treatment -- because their frequency should be independent of the ratings, their components in the preference vector will go to zero. The primary advantage of this scheme is its concreteness and relative ease of implementation (as well as fairly small computational cost). The disadvantage is, of course, that although I'm more likely to want a text that uses the word "future" a lot, there's no protection against boneheaded future-centered posts. But then again, I think we're still a ways away from figuring out a concrete system that formalizes such subjective things -- and the occurrence of negatively- weighted words such as "gaia" and "disaster" and "overpopulation" in future-centric texts would offset the positive "future" focus. Going further, note that we can take dot products of two users' preference vectors too, which should give some indication of mutual interests. This could be used as part of a computer dating service, for example. Also, if people start publishing their ratings and preference vectors, it is quite a simple matter to use the dot product of preference vectors to weight the significance of the published rating -- just multiply the dot product times the rating to get a personal interpretation of the rating. The system has the further advantage that, as long as the order of words in the vector is agreed upon (or, alternatively, that the words themselves appear in the vector representation at some additional storage cost), it is completely decentralized. Nobody needs to collect and correlate information from different users, and a multitude of services can spring up to deal with that one data structure -- for example, using principle components analysis and cluster analysis on many users' vectors to identify "regions" of interest -- I'm sure that something roughly analogous to extropianism would appear in such an analysis! derek ... and the applications for market research are obvious! ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 08:28:36 EST From: kwaldman Subject: Shower products. >In any case, I'm pretty skeptical of any nozzle-based local heater >(let alone a cooler!). The water is moving by too quickly for any >system to locally alter the temperature by more than tiny fractions of >a degree. > > I was in one shower where the nozzle had a large resistor in it which was connected to a power switch for heating. Needless to say I didn't flick the switch so I can't be sure how well this worked :-) [ This was in Guatamala so UL labels don't apply] Vayas con Dios (but only if you flick the switch :-) Karl -------- Karl M. Waldman BBN Systems and Technologies Arlington VA (soon to be New London Ct kwaldman@bbn.com send for my PGP public key ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 14:19:08 +0000 (GMT) From: Charlie Stross Subject: Shower products. Lo, Doug Barnes writes: >> >> KPJ Jaakkola writes: >> >> Is this a control that gets the desired temperature by mixing the water, as >> in almost all American systems, or does the shower have its own water >> heater, with the control setting its temperature, which would make it a >> more convenient version of Tim May's solution? If the former, could you >> check the brand name? It probably is not available here, but one never >> knows. >> >We had those in Taiwan (gas-powered). Actually, they heated the water >as it flowed, rather than storing it in a hot water heater. Does anyone >know the relative efficiency of heating the water on demand vs. heating >and storing? It's fairly efficient -- reduced heat loss -- but makes for a lousy shower. Similar flow-through water heaters are common in the UK, and you get used to them after a bit. The problem is if you open up the tap the water cools down; you get a constant energy input from the heater, but increased volume of water through it. What's needed is a feedback mechanism in the heater, that increases the heat as the flow rate goes up ... but I've never used one with such a mechanism. Oh yeah; years ago while I was a student in London, I lived in some pretty grotty accomodation. One such place had such a heater ... but the limescale in the water was so bad that it could no longer produce even warm water in winter; it just heated it a few degrees ground temperature (i.e. the temperature it was at while in the underground pipes). Ick. What a vile time that was ... -- Charlie (insulated hot water tank and a bath every 24 hours, these days) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Charlie Stross is charless@sco.com, charlie@antipope.demon.co.uk ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 14:55:02 GMT From: nancy@genie.slhs.udel.edu Subject: Shoes "Timothy C. May" writes: >Nancy L. and Kennita W. have been writing about shoes. (Is there a >pattern here? Is is sexist for me to note this? Banned under the >People's Nondiscrmination Directive? Oh well, Brian commented, and I'm >commenting, too, so...). No, there was nothing the matter (imho) with you noticing that. However..... >Kennita Watson wrote: > >> Murray Space Shoe in northern California will custom-make shoes from a >> plaster cast of your foot. They cost a lot (~$300), and I wouldn't >> call them dress shoes, but I don't think they could get any more >> foot-shaped. They've moved to the boonies, but I can find the number >> and give it to anyone who asks. > >I once had a pair of "Earth Shoes," which were touted in much the same >way the new "Spaces Shoes" are. The heel was lower than the >toe...supposed to do something "natural" to one's feet. I didn't like >'em, and they were unsightly, too. I've had Earth Shoes, too. (Maybe they're the shoes for neophiles?) I didn't think that the reverse heel did any good or harm--my only beef with them was that the soles weren't nearly as durable as the salesperson told me. Do you believe that any shoe that leaves enough room for your toes is "unsightly", or was there another problem with their appearance? > >Shoes are shoes. I mostly wear Teva sport sandals, even in the winter. >Heat loss through the feet is minimal, and it is usually through the >soles. The Tevas have thick insulating soles, so no problem. That's an interesting approach--I may check it out, since my feet have been getting wider, and I've been having trouble finding shoes that fit. (I think that the widening is a result of relaxation due to bodywork.) >Women's shoes suffer from a focus on tightness and stylishness. Shoes >that "fit" will tend to have boxy toe sections, given the geometry of >the foot, but this is a fashion faux pas. Actually, the shoes don't suffer a bit--women do. If you wanted to doubt the marketability of a product that people "ought" to want but probably don't, you'd have a point. On the other hand, there might be a niche market--and not just for women. Running shoes and such are the most comfortable shoes being made, and there are men who'd like them in more dignified colors, too. > >The solution is not as complicated as "made to fit" shoes: it is just >eschewing style issues and buying comfortable shoes. Actually, it isn't that simple--even running shoes are made with unduly oval toes. Also, it rather amazes me that running shoes aren't available in widths--all you can do is find out which companies make wider or narrower shoes. Some 5-7 years ago, I read an article to the effect that running shoe companies had reached the limit of technological improvement, and their next direction should be finding out how to make shoes that fit better--I don't think they've tried it yet, though. The approach you've got in the above paragraph makes perfect sense if you're a consumer with minority tastes, but if you're hypothesizing about possible companies, then it's better to have a princess-and- the-pea attitude and/or empathy about what other people might want. >Maybe it's just me, but a woman's feet are just about the last thing I >look at. Well, that's a market niche that you certainly won't be bothering with.... I think that what's irritating me about what you've written is that you seem to be implying that, since you aren't interested in women's shoes, no one else should be either. Is this actually what you meant? Nancy Lebovitz ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 16:19:21 +0000 (GMT) From: Charlie Stross Subject: Shoes nancy@genie.slhs.udel.edu writes: >Subject: Shoes >>Women's shoes suffer from a focus on tightness and stylishness. Shoes >>that "fit" will tend to have boxy toe sections, given the geometry of >>the foot, but this is a fashion faux pas. >Actually, the shoes don't suffer a bit--women do. If you wanted to >doubt the marketability of a product that people "ought" to want >but probably don't, you'd have a point. On the other hand, there >might be a niche market--and not just for women. Running shoes and >such are the most comfortable shoes being made, and there are men >who'd like them in more dignified colors, too. >> >>The solution is not as complicated as "made to fit" shoes: it is just >>eschewing style issues and buying comfortable shoes. >Actually, it isn't that simple--even running shoes are made with unduly >oval toes. Also, it rather amazes me that running shoes aren't >available in widths--all you can do is find out which companies make >wider or narrower shoes. I'd stipulate that running shoes aren't necessarily the most comfortable. I habitually wear running shoes, but I have one pair of shoes I wear in preference for heavy-duty foot-work: Dutch army-surplus paratroop boots. Designed for big men who jump out of aircraft and land in fields, then have to walk thirty miles in a day with a pack on their back. And they have to be able to do it and arrive in condition to walk another 30 miles the next day. And do it in snow. So the boots are waterproof, and fleece lined, and let your toes breath, and grip the ankle really supportively, and are built to military standards of ruggedness. I have one such pair of boots. I've had them for three years, and they look good as new (although they'll need re-heeling in about a year :). They ain't stylish and you wouldn't want to run a hundred metre sprint in them; but at the end of a hard day's walking (be it around the shopping mall or over a mountain) you've still got a pair of feet on your legs, instead of a pair of pulped and bleeding lumps of meat. -- Charlie -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Charlie Stross is charless@sco.com, charlie@antipope.demon.co.uk ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 16:24:37 GMT From: nancy@genie.slhs.udel.edu Subject: Re: Shower products. This isn't as sophisticated as having a thermostat-controlled tap, but one large improvement would be having bathtubs that don't conduct heat very well. I've used a plastic tub in a hotel, and it didn't steal the heat the way porcelein does--I have no idea why plastic tubs aren't standard. Could it be building codes? Nancy Lebovitz ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 09:01:59 -0800 From: Romana Machado Subject: CHAT: Shoes for Industry Tim May gifts us with his wisdom: >Women's shoes suffer from a focus on tightness and stylishness. Shoes >that "fit" will tend to have boxy toe sections, given the geometry of >the foot, but this is a fashion faux pas. Not any more! As far as I can tell, the latest fashion is tending to granny boots, and beginning to resemble combat boots, the ultimate sensible shoe! >The solution is not as complicated as "made to fit" shoes: it is just >eschewing style issues and buying comfortable shoes. In truth, fellow Extropians, I got all excited reading Allure magazine (a self-transformation monthly) just yesterday: The Real Thing With all the trendy granny boots and work boots stomping around this season, we decided to go to the source for a more authentic version. From Gohn Bro.'s catalog of Amish and plain clothing come hightop shoes with an au courant capped toe (* nyah, Tim *) and the flexibility of well-worn ice skates. As for fit, sending pencil outlines of your feet along with the order form takes the guesswork out of sizing. $96.98 plus shipping from Gohn Brothers, (219)825-2400 >Maybe it's just me, but a woman's feet are just about the last thing I >look at. > >--Tim May I can help you modify this absurd behavior for the right price. Besides, I'm going to need those pencil outlines. Call me anytime. --Mistress Romana "Call me Imelda" ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 09:11:28 +1100 From: onomoto@netcom.com (Young and Loud) Subject: Shower products. Nancy: >[...] I've used a plastic tub in a hotel, and it didn't steal the >heat the way porcelein does--I have no idea why plastic tubs aren't >standard. Could it be building codes? Seeing as washing greasy plasticware after say.. spaghetti is such a joy, I'd guess that cleaning a plastic tub would be significantly worse than the other unpleasant task. Since I just got out of the tub, what I would like to see is some "emergency reservoir" of hot water (or at least an indicator) warning me that I've been spending too much time reading tech manuals, and if I don't hurry I'm gonna be shivering for a bit. -o ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 02 Dec 93 12:04:24 EST From: trestrab@GVSU.EDU (BETH TRESTRAIL) Subject: META: Tit for Tat and List Etiquette Utilizing game theory to analyze conflict situations can be very helpful, but please keep in mind that the optimal strategy in a given situation will vary in accordance with whether you assess the game in terms of positive, zero, or negative sum outcomes. If you characterize interaction on the list as zero sum, then tit for tat is an appropriate strategy. An attitude of "Your loss is my gain" fans the flames higher, as participants seek to be "the winner" of a flame war. On the other hand, if you believe the list to be positive sum the only reasons justifying participation in zero or negative sum outcome games are coercion or a positive expectation. Several members of this list have recently been _forced_ to interact with L.Detweiler because silence on their part would have been construed by some as acquiescence to his defamatory idiocy. Positive expectations are rather difficult to achieve in zero or negative sum games, however. I guess I would cite the recent Donald debacle as a case in point. My personal rule of thumb is to seek out positive sum interactions and avoid the other two whenever possible. YMMV. Jeff trestrab@gvsu.edu trestrail@delphi.com ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 9:49:38 PST From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: Shoes > >Maybe it's just me, but a woman's feet are just about the last thing I > >look at. > > Well, that's a market niche that you certainly won't be bothering with.... > I think that what's irritating me about what you've written is that > you seem to be implying that, since you aren't interested in women's > shoes, no one else should be either. Is this actually what you meant? > > Nancy Lebovitz Yes. I'm saying that by enslaving themselvs to what the Fashions Gods have told them is what they ought to wear--and the Fashion Gods are mainly gay males, as we all all know--they end up wearing ridiculously tight shoes or Nazi-like "Doc Martens" (sp?) army boots....as a fashion statement, no less. I won't debate the shoe issue anymore except to say that several modern vendors are exploiting the "comfortable shoe" niche. Rockport, for example, offers a light shoe that wears well, has non-pointy toes, and is similar to a running shoe (although I've never found running shoes to be as comfortable as others seem to think). Rockport was acquired by Reebok several years back. --Tim May -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 12:51:27 -0500 (EST) From: Harry Shapiro Subject: Meta: Improved Service This is to note I am now offering improved service for add and drops. I state in the Welcome Msg. that all requests will take up to 5 business days to process. Now that I am using Ray's latest piece of software, add and drop requests are being processed AS SOON AS I READ THEM. This is almost always within 24 hours, and often within 6 hours. However for other requests, and during the period of time I travel, etc. it may still day 5 business days to process your request. /hawk -- Harry S. Hawk habs@extropy.org Electronic Communications Officer, Extropy Institute Inc. The Extropians Mailing List, Since 1991 ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 10:05:17 PST From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: META: Tit for Tat and List Etiquette Jeff writes: > If you characterize interaction on the list as zero sum, then > tit for tat is an appropriate strategy. An attitude of "Your loss > is my gain" fans the flames higher, as participants seek to be > "the winner" of a flame war. Axelrod's "The Evolution of Cooperation" shows that tit-for-tat is also an effective strategy for positive-sum games. In our modern economy, a store that gives me bad service is crossed-off my list, a store that gives me good service is rewarded by repeat business. A form of tit-for-tat. And yet our economy is a postive-sum game. > On the other hand, if you believe the list to be positive sum the > only reasons justifying participation in zero or negative sum outcome > games are coercion or a positive expectation. Several members of > this list have recently been _forced_ to interact with L.Detweiler > because silence on their part would have been construed by some as > acquiescence to his defamatory idiocy. Positive expectations are > rather difficult to achieve in zero or negative sum games, however. > I guess I would cite the recent Donald debacle as a case in point. > > My personal rule of thumb is to seek out positive sum interactions > and avoid the other two whenever possible. YMMV. I certainly view the Extropians list as a postive sum game. That is, I input my time and expect others to as well, with nearly everyone coming out ahead in the process. However, I dislike the implication in the List rules that boorish behavior should be me with stony silence or by the filing of formal charges. This seems to be "too Christian" to me. Fortunately, we have not anything on this List remotely as bad as the Detweiler Perversion (who makes the Pandit Perversion look tame). Maybe it's the atmosphere of this list, as opposed to the less-ideologically-centered Cypherpunks list, but maybe it's the threat of expulsion hanging over the heads of those who would be rude. --Tim May -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 13:26:45 -0500 (EST) From: Arthur Hlavaty Subject: Shoes The shoe industry, like most of the appearance biz, is much more oppressive to women than to men, but men don't get off completely either. I guess in family terms it's like "abusive" vs. merely "dysfunctional." Arthur D. Hlavaty hlavaty@panix.com "The Mason's face is ajar."--Firesign Theater ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 13:30:16 -0500 (EST) From: Harry Shapiro Subject: META: Tit for Tat and List Etiquette a conscious being, Timothy C. May wrote: > also an effective strategy for positive-sum games. Agreed. > behavior should be me with stony silence or by the filing of formal > charges. This seems to be "too Christian" to me. > Filing charges in "not" stony silence. It is action; it is tit for tat, and under a PPLs, I suspect few will allow you to open fire unless your life is in danger. Filing charges I think is "broken" in that it is based on equal treatment under the law, while not every poster on this list is equal (by any view from quality of post to $$ donated). > Detweiler Perversion (who makes the Pandit Perversion look tame). Detweiler would have been booted from this list long ago.... /hawk ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 11:16:53 -0800 From: freeman@maspar.com (Jay R. Freeman) Subject: META: Tit for Tat and List Etiquette I agree with Tim May that boorish behavior should not be met with stony silence, but I must quibble with the likely concomitant inference that replying with flame thrower set for thermonuclear holocaust is "unchristian" (or equivalent secular term). After all, if someone is spoiling for a fight, surely it would be uncharitable not to provide one... -- Jay Freeman, First Extropian Obnoxious Rodent ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 13:15:45 -0600 From: cpresson@ingr.com (Craig Presson) Subject: CHAT: Shoes for Industry In <#93-12-27>, Timothy C. May writes: [...] |> Maybe it's just me, but a woman's feet are just about the last thing I |> look at. Yep, mostly just you. Gotta vid them peds, mon. Then glim up the superstructure. -- cP "Treat every woman as if she is armed until you personally know otherwise by inspection." -- Craig's Rules for Travellers, #236 ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1993 13:56:39 -0500 From: nzr20@amdahlcsdc.com (Nicholas Russon) Subject: Shoes Tim said: > I won't debate the shoe issue anymore except to say that several > modern vendors are exploiting the "comfortable shoe" niche. Rockport, > for example, offers a light shoe that wears well, has non-pointy toes, > and is similar to a running shoe (although I've never found running > shoes to be as comfortable as others seem to think). Rockport was > acquired by Reebok several years back. And a bitterly sad day it was for those of us whose feet are wide. Rockport (pre-Reebok) tended to provide a wider shoe than most other shoe manufacturers. I visited an outlet shortly after Reebok had bought them, and I got a good deal on several pairs of "old style" shoes. Since then, I haven't found Rockports to be anywhere near as wide-fitting as they used to be. Incidentally, just how far are we going to stray out of our normal (?) areas of discussion? -- Nicholas nzr20@amdahlcsdc.com | Our universities are so determined Russon nzr20@amail.amdahl.com | to impose tolerance that they'll n.russon@ieee.org | expel you for saying what you think nicholas.russon@canrem.com | and never notice the irony. Amdahl CSDC Mississauga Ont. 905-542-6530| (John Perry Barlow) ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 11:56:37 PST From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: Start-Up VirtSem: Charity for Entrepreneurs this past week. If you can tear your self away from the fascinating postings on shoes for industry, shower nozzles, and mescaline, here's something I think needs to be said: * Many would-be entrepreneurs have a model for obtaining financing that is fundamentally flawed. Many of them assume that venture capitalists and/or otherwise well-off investors will buy into their vision and give them money to further research this vision, to work on it, and to make token efforts toward bringing some kind of product to the market. A harsh view? Yes. But mostly an accurate one, based on my many years of hanging around at least some segments of the would-be entrepreneur culture in Silicon Valley. Without getting into specifics of groups and names, these folks have interesting--even compelling--long-range visions. The problem is that their short-range implementations are lacking. Investors have no "exit strategy," in the terms Jamie Dinkelacker described a while back. Instead, what they mostly want is for someone to pay them a reasonable salary (usually nothing outrageous--maybe $50K a year for each of them) while they work on their ideas. Well, that ain't gonna work. First, $50K a year times a couple of people times a few years means they blow $200-400K with nothing to show for it. Usually there's nothing to show for it except that they've had fun (harsh, I know), they've "done it wrong" another couple of times, and they're ready to move on to something else. To the potential investor, this is unacceptable. Even $200K--a mere pittance for a start-up--takes a while to save up and is not easy to see vanish. Ask yourself how long it will take you to _accumulate_ $200K free and clear for investment....perhaps you earn $70K a year and are able to save $20K a year of it by foregoing the trips to Cancun every year that your friends are taking, the ski weekends, and so on. Well, it'll take you about 5-7 years to save this, depending on interest rates, etc. For this amount, you can then fund two people with a "vision" for a little over a year and a half...then it's gone. Am I against funding entrepreneurs? No, I just did put some money with some folks who are taking on a risky technological development. But I hope I am buying some "steak" and not just some "sizzle." The model of the entrepreneurs who get funded and then go on to change the world, as with Intel and Apple, is a model that's dangerous to try to emulate. Importantly, even in these cases, both companies used their VC funding to immediately ship products: Intel was shipping erasable PROMS, MOS RAMs, and CCDs within a year of financing, with the first year spent getting their wafer fab running and not spent on blue-sky dreaming about ultimate products and how the world would be changed. Ditto for Apple, which has already shipped the Apple I and only needed financing to pay for tooling on the Apple II and advertising. My recommendations: * Don't set out to change the world with a new operating system, a new language, a new way of viewing documents, etc. * Rather, set out to make and sell a product _as quickly as possible_. Shipping a product provides evolutionary learning (and a chance to correct the product and vision), an immediate cash flow, and keeps everyone more honest about what they're doing. * Only seek financing when you actually have a product nearly ready to go. (There are exceptions to this, of course.) Don't ask your friends and family, let alone strangers, to pay you a salary while you "find yourself" or read the literature and grope around for something to build and sell. * Don't quit your day job. Advice that applies to writers as well as to entrepreneurs. The odds are small that _any_ inventor will have a product idea that hits, via some counting arguments (not enough new products and sales for all the little ideas to succeed...at least this has been the way it's been in the past, a la Bayesisan arguments....there are only so many bestsellers and hit songs). This has nothing to do with "dynamic optimism." Save your dynamic optimism for when, by whatever means, you have really come across a product idea that looks really good, that seems likey to succeed, and that only needs some financing to get it finished and shipped. * Don't assume that because you're bright and creative that others should and will fund you. See the above arguments for why they won't. * Keep your operation as small as possible. The best software start-ups were one- or two-person operations. For example, "Think C" started small (remember "Lightspeed Pascal" and "Lightspeed C" in 1986?). Ditto for so many products I can't even digress into listing them here. (If you are already hiring marketing people long before having a final product, you are seriously fucked-up. No insults intended toward my many friends who have been in start-ups like this. By the way, this comment is not at odds with Jamie's comments about hiring the best marketing people you can get and then paying them very well. It's all in the timing and whether or not your product is manufacturable, is desired by customers, and so on. Companies with lousy products but huge marketing departments are not long for this world.) Well, that's enough of a rant for now. It's just that my pet peeve is seeing so many of my free-market-espousin,' libertarian-leanin,' altruism-hatin' friends look to charity for financing their visions. --Tim May -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 14:54:04 EST From: kwaldman Subject: Shoes >Rockport, for example, offers a light shoe that wears well, has non-pointy toes, >and is similar to a running shoe (although I've never found running >shoes to be as comfortable as others seem to think). >--Tim May Actually I always wear my fake wingtips by Rockport. Very comfortable! Nobody has noticed either (even during this weeks Extropian dinner in boston) Karl BTW: we need to add a new line to the the Welcome message describing Extropian shoes! Ha, Ha. -------- Karl M. Waldman BBN Systems and Technologies Arlington VA (soon to be New London Ct kwaldman@bbn.com send for my PGP public key ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Dec 93 12:08:11 PST From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: Start-Up VirtSem: Charity for Entrepreneurs (this line for the possible line-eater at work here) Something seems to have stripped-off the first few lines of my posting! Believe me, the lines were there when I posted the article. I'll try to reconstruct the lines and then send the complete article. I started by saying that the Start-Up VirtSem as been quiet of late, which is too bad, and that: > > this past week. If you can tear your self away from the fascinating > postings on shoes for industry, shower nozzles, and mescaline, here's > something I think needs to be said: > > * Many would-be entrepreneurs have a model for obtaining financing > that is fundamentally flawed. Many of them assume that venture > capitalists and/or otherwise well-off investors will buy into their > vision and give them money to further research this vision, to work on > it, and to make token efforts toward bringing some kind of product to > the market. > > A harsh view? Yes. But mostly an accurate one, based on my many years > of hanging around at least some segments of the would-be > entrepreneur culture in Silicon Valley. Without getting into specifics > of groups and names, these folks have interesting--even > compelling--long-range visions. > > The problem is that their short-range implementations are lacking. > Investors have no "exit strategy," in the terms Jamie Dinkelacker > described a while back. Instead, what they mostly want is for someone > to pay them a reasonable salary (usually nothing outrageous--maybe > $50K a year for each of them) while they work on their ideas. > > Well, that ain't gonna work. First, $50K a year times a couple of > people times a few years means they blow $200-400K with nothing to > show for it. Usually there's nothing to show for it except that > they've had fun (harsh, I know), they've "done it wrong" another > couple of times, and they're ready to move on to something else. > > To the potential investor, this is unacceptable. Even $200K--a mere > pittance for a start-up--takes a while to save up and is not easy to > see vanish. Ask yourself how long it will take you to _accumulate_ > $200K free and clear for investment....perhaps you earn $70K a year > and are able to save $20K a year of it by foregoing the trips to > Cancun every year that your friends are taking, the ski weekends, and > so on. Well, it'll take you about 5-7 years to save this, depending on > interest rates, etc. > > For this amount, you can then fund two people with a "vision" for a > little over a year and a half...then it's gone. > > Am I against funding entrepreneurs? No, I just did put some money with > some folks who are taking on a risky technological development. But I > hope I am buying some "steak" and not just some "sizzle." > > The model of the entrepreneurs who get funded and then go on to change > the world, as with Intel and Apple, is a model that's dangerous to try > to emulate. Importantly, even in these cases, both companies used > their VC funding to immediately ship products: Intel was shipping > erasable PROMS, MOS RAMs, and CCDs within a year of financing, with > the first year spent getting their wafer fab running and not spent on > blue-sky dreaming about ultimate products and how the world would be > changed. Ditto for Apple, which has already shipped the Apple I and > only needed financing to pay for tooling on the Apple II and > advertising. > > My recommendations: > > * Don't set out to change the world with a new operating system, a new > language, a new way of viewing documents, etc. > > * Rather, set out to make and sell a product _as quickly as possible_. > Shipping a product provides evolutionary learning (and a chance to > correct the product and vision), an immediate cash flow, and keeps > everyone more honest about what they're doing. > > * Only seek financing when you actually have a product nearly ready to > go. (There are exceptions to this, of course.) Don't ask your friends > and family, let alone strangers, to pay you a salary while you "find > yourself" or read the literature and grope around for something to > build and sell. > > * Don't quit your day job. Advice that applies to writers as well as to > entrepreneurs. The odds are small that _any_ inventor will have a > product idea that hits, via some counting arguments (not enough new > products and sales for all the little ideas to succeed...at least this > has been the way it's been in the past, a la Bayesisan > arguments....there are only so many bestsellers and hit songs). This > has nothing to do with "dynamic optimism." Save your dynamic optimism > for when, by whatever means, you have really come across a product > idea that looks really good, that seems likey to succeed, and that > only needs some financing to get it finished and shipped. > > * Don't assume that because you're bright and creative that others > should and will fund you. See the above arguments for why they won't. > > * Keep your operation as small as possible. The best software > start-ups were one- or two-person operations. For example, "Think C" > started small (remember "Lightspeed Pascal" and "Lightspeed C" in > 1986?). Ditto for so many products I can't even digress into listing > them here. > > (If you are already hiring marketing people long before having a final > product, you are seriously fucked-up. No insults intended toward my > many friends who have been in start-ups like this. By the way, this > comment is not at odds with Jamie's comments about hiring the best > marketing people you can get and then paying them very well. It's all > in the timing and whether or not your product is manufacturable, is > desired by customers, and so on. Companies with lousy products but > huge marketing departments are not long for this world.) > > Well, that's enough of a rant for now. It's just that my pet peeve is > seeing so many of my free-market-espousin,' libertarian-leanin,' > altruism-hatin' friends look to charity for financing their visions. > > --Tim May > > -- > .......................................................................... > Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, > tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero > 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, > W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. > Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. > Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. > ------------------------------ End of Extropians Digest V93 #335 *********************************