From extropians-request@extropy.org Mon Nov 15 15:55:26 1993 Return-Path: Received: from usc.edu by chaph.usc.edu (4.1/SMI-4.1+ucs-3.0) id AA27149; Mon, 15 Nov 93 15:55:23 PST Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: from apple-gunkies.gnu.ai.mit.edu by usc.edu (4.1/SMI-3.0DEV3-USC+3.1) id AA21193; Mon, 15 Nov 93 15:55:12 PST Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: by apple-gunkies.gnu.ai.mit.edu (5.65/4.0) id ; Mon, 15 Nov 93 18:45:12 -0500 Received: from news.Panix.Com by apple-gunkies.gnu.ai.mit.edu (5.65/4.0) with SMTP id ; Mon, 15 Nov 93 18:44:49 -0500 Received: by news.panix.com id AA13221 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for exi-remail@apple-gunkies.gnu.ai.mit.edu); Mon, 15 Nov 1993 18:44:39 -0500 Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 18:44:39 -0500 Message-Id: <199311152344.AA13221@news.panix.com> To: Extropians@extropy.org From: Extropians@extropy.org Subject: Extropians Digest X-Extropian-Date: November 15, 373 P.N.O. [23:44:08 UTC] Reply-To: extropians@extropy.org Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Status: RO Extropians Digest Mon, 15 Nov 93 Volume 93 : Issue 318 Today's Topics: [1 msgs] Extropians [3 msgs] Forged messages, et al. [1 msgs] I'm unsubscribing (from Hal) [1 msgs] I'm unsubscribing (from Hal) [1 msgs] INVEST: Efficient Market Hypothesis and Wacky P/E Ratios [2 msgs] INVEST: Efficient Market Hypothesis and Wacky P/E Ratios [1 msgs] Meta: PPL - challenge to Lefty [1 msgs] Need info on FDA, Nutrient Supplements, and Relevant Legislation[1 msgs] Nightly Market Report [2 msgs] Oceania opinion [1 msgs] Oceania opinion [1 msgs] Spontaneous Order and Socialism [1 msgs] Spontaneous Order and Socialism [1 msgs] VIACRYPT ADDRESS [2 msgs] Administrivia: No admin msg. Approximate Size: 52318 bytes. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 15 Nov 93 01:10:36 -0800 From: davisd@auburn.ee.washington.edu Subject: Need info on FDA, Nutrient Supplements, and Relevant Legislation I would appreciate if someone in the know could send me any information they have on the current status of the law with respect to the FDA and supplements, their new powers taking effect this January, their recent abuses in terms of banning supplements, and the status and language of the current bills which attempt to counter their abuses. Time is of the essence. Much thanks. Buy Buy -- Dan Davis ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 93 10:55:50-010 From: lowton@typhon.dra.hmg.gb (Andy Lowton) Subject: Forged messages, et al. Geoff Dale writes: > Yes, but leaving your private key on an insecure system (any system that > has users other than yourself, or at minimum that you don't own) is a > security risk. > > Thanx for the pointer, but it doesn't really solve the problem, for most folx. My answer was directed more at the 'user friendly' aspect of Perry's post, than at the security implications, but I agree with what you say about multi-user systems. In the context of the recently forged mail, I think that the ::password command would be a more convenient mechanism than digital signatures for the majority of people on the list. Having said that, I get a lot of messages with things like ':: help' in them. mr lotion ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 06:32:43 -0500 From: habs@panix.com (Harry S. Hawk) Subject: Meta: PPL - challenge to Lefty On the issue of only one PPL on this list. I think Ray (and others) maybe right in that the economies of this list make it hard for competeing PPL's to thrive. However, to the best of my recollection, Lefty has objected to all of the verdicts I have make. I don't claim to be perfect, and like to think I have gotten better. Of course Perry Metzger has also objected to many of my verdicts (for different reasons.) Since, by his comments, Lefty is unhappy with the current list structure, I urge him to take the "law into his own hands" and create his own PPL. It will have to be consistant with Extropian views; it doesn' need the direct approval of the ExI board, but they could object to certain aspects of it if they felt so inclined. >From an economic standpoint it might not pay off, but on the basis of true self-interest, it should be, for him, very rewarding. I will enforce any judgement against any party who has agreed in advance to to judged by Lefty. Lefty could also force parties to use passwords, and use the passwords to, himself, enforce his PPL. To make it "more" rewarding, I will, once we go to pay for use, transfer 1/24th of a members sign-on/up fee ($.16 - $.5) to any PPL opperator who signs up at least 50 list members, on the provision that if any list member leaves that PPL and joins/rejoins an other, that a pro-rated amount of that money be transfered to the operator of that PPL. I know this is a small amount of money but it should make things more 'interesting." Of course, this offer is open to any list member who is also a member of ExI. I don't think Lefty is, but I will make an exception for him. /hawk -- Harry S. Hawk - Extropian habs@extropy.org In Service to Extropians since 1991 ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 09:11:29 -0400 (EDT) From: dex cowb0t -- l0tus 3ater Subject: I'm unsubscribing (from Hal) What is wrong????? Geeeeeeeeeze!!!!!!! I joined this list --expecting a very high s/n ratio --instead --- grumblings about forgery and JP ------------- Damn. I get about 25 messages a time ---perhaps one of them is worth extracting in a batch that large ---------Hell, READING for that matter!!!!!!! Just del 1-25 Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaa not that I am being helpful or anything. What happened to neat stuff ----- Clintontrash, Rightist/Leftist Satire, SCIENCE!!!!!!, neato-computer-stuff, ... OK ----I know what I am going to get (if you one of you guys are working in VMS) $loop: $mail jerk.txt to:in%"s662906m@vax.edinboro.edu" $goto loop whooooooooooooooooooooooooops GEORGEbushISgod Hahahahahahaha == HeroincocaineLSDpcpsmuggler Hahahahahahahahaha ---------fools ------ SHEEPLE!!!!!!!!!!!! ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 14:07:34 +0200 From: felix@hu.se (Felix Ungman) Subject: Spontaneous Order and Socialism Just a thought... Taken the literal definition, isn't Socialism the ultimate form of Spontaneous Order? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- True Name: Felix Ungman "Gen is god and your God is not" ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 93 08:46:13 GMT From: price@price.demon.co.uk (Michael Clive Price) Subject: Extropians > Or, as the Euclideans would have it, irrationality is the square > root of all evil. (Sorry.) > dV/dt Shouldn't that be the Pythogoreans? (Double-plus sorry) Mike Price price@price.demon.co.uk ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 10:25:10 -0500 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: Spontaneous Order and Socialism Felix Ungman says: > Just a thought... > Taken the literal definition, isn't Socialism the ultimate form of > Spontaneous Order? Isn't thermit the ultimate refrigerant? .pm ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 10:32:01 -0500 (EST) From: ptbast@ivy.WPI.EDU (Peter F Bastien) Subject: Oceania opinion Since you, the remaining people on this lists, normally seem to be quite intelligent and forward thinkers, I would like to solicit your opinions about the Oceania project. I recently received a copy of their constitution and the general "we need your help" message and I was wondering if in your opinion if they are worthwhile to get involved with. I'm looking for opinions concerning practicality, reasonability, realization of goals, parallels with other project, and projected problems. Please back up your opinion with fact and/or reference material. This is for my own personal interest and to hopefully get a worthwhile thread going. Pete Bastien ptbast@cs.wpi.edu ps: Does anyone know of a better spell checker than ispell for emacs? ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 10:53:10 +0500 From: Brian.Hawthorne@east.sun.com (Brian Hawthorne - SunSelect Strategic Marketing) Subject: VIACRYPT ADDRESS -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- John Clark asked: > Does anybody know the address of ViaCrypt or > where we can buy a copy? I just received email from "Tom Jones" with the ViaCrypt blurb. You can contact ViaCrypt directly: ViaCrypt 2104 W. Peoria Ave. Phoenix, AZ 85029 (602) 944-0773. They don't publish an email address, strangely enough. Tom may be able to help you. -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: 2.3a iQBVAgUBLOel0Hnyk/usVjP1AQFDNwIAkCOc1ZWQb/Ul/mEujcJqZzJ6uVizrZa+ 4e7N3ZokHui/A7JpMVXfk+oXJORewg+Jk5Fm+imIo1vrBAoMfzzd8Q== =jbLo -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 93 11:40:17 EST From: eli@suneast.east.sun.com (Elias Israel - SunSelect Engineering) Subject: INVEST: Efficient Market Hypothesis and Wacky P/E Ratios In my self-taught (and doubtless incomplete) study of economics, I've come to believe in the efficient market hypothesis. Not only does it seem to explain quite a bit, it makes a useful counter-argument whenever a statist claims that some new regulation will "improve" general utility in some way. However, recently I've been trying to learn a little about investment (I have a small sum to invest, and it seems the extropian and intelligent thing to do...) and I've been reading Lynch's _One up on Wall Street_. So far, it's quite interesting, if perhaps a little slow. But I ran across an item that made me wonder. At one point, during the 70's if I remember correctly, Perot's EDS was selling at a P/E ratio of 500, and perhaps should have had a P/E of 1000. Now, I can understand people speculating that a particular company's earnings will increase in the future, but how does the efficient market hypothesis account for people speculating that the earnings of a company are going to increase by three orders of magnitude? What rational person would buy a stock that might take up to a millenium to earn back the price of admission? Obviously, there's something about that stock at that time that I'm not getting. In what sense can it be rational for investors to assume that a stock price was going to stay that far out of line with the fundamentals for any length of time? Elias Israel eli@east.sun.com HEx: E ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 12:33:55 -0500 (EST) From: LEVY%BESSIE@venus.cis.yale.edu Subject: FILM: "Fearless" Tim may writes: > "Fearless" is a thought-provoking movie, starring Jeff Bridges and > directed by Peter Weir. I just saw it over the weekend, and I think Tim is right.... definitely worth seeing. It has strong Extropian appeal, because of the theme of overcoming death, and how that experience can alienate someone from others who have not been through it. Unlike one reviewer I read, I didn't think it was up to the standards of Weir's "The Year of Living Dangerously" -- I found it a bit cliche towards the middle -- but still a damn good film. This is the only movie I've seen recently where no one in the audience talked after the first five minutes -- it was that powerful. Unless you're extremely jaded, bring a handkerchief. -- Simon! ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 12:34:19 -0500 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: I'm unsubscribing (from Hal) *plonk* dex cowb0t -- l0tus 3ater says: > What is wrong????? Geeeeeeeeeze!!!!!!! I joined this list --expecting a very > high s/n ratio --instead --- grumblings about forgery and JP ------------- > > Damn. I get about 25 messages a time ---perhaps one of them is worth > extracting in a batch that large ---------Hell, READING for that matter!!!!!! ! > > Just del 1-25 Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaa > > not that I am being helpful or anything. What happened to neat stuff ----- > Clintontrash, Rightist/Leftist Satire, SCIENCE!!!!!!, neato-computer-stuff, . .. > > OK ----I know what I am going to get (if you one of you guys are working in V MS) > $loop: > $mail jerk.txt > to:in%"s662906m@vax.edinboro.edu" > $goto loop > > whooooooooooooooooooooooooops > > GEORGEbushISgod Hahahahahahaha > == HeroincocaineLSDpcpsmuggler > > Hahahahahahahahaha ---------fools ------ SHEEPLE!!!!!!!!!!!! ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 00:00:01 +0500 From: The Hawthorne Exchange Subject: Nightly Market Report The Hawthorne Exchange - HEx Nightly Market Report For more information on HEx, send email to HEx@sea.east.sun.com with the Subject info. News Summary as of: Mon Nov 15 00:00:01 EST 1993 Newly Registered Reputations: (None) New Share Issues: (None) Share Splits: (None) Market Summary as of: Sun Nov 14 23:58:00 EST 1993 Reputations of members of the Extropians mailing list: [ Note: Contact hex-request to have a reputation placed on this list. ] Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding Traded AMARA .10 .50 .50 10000 2000 0 ANTON .61 .63 .63 10000 1943 0 ARKU .18 .31 .30 10000 5301 0 BLAIR .01 1.20 .01 10000 26 0 BROOX .01 1.00 - 10000 - 0 DEREK .06 .19 .19 100000 18930 0 DROSE - .15 .10 10000 3000 0 DRS - .15 .15 10000 2600 0 DVDT .75 1.75 1.70 10000 10000 0 E .80 1.00 .90 10000 8011 0 ESR - - - - - 0 FCP .06 1.30 1.50 80000 15345 0 GHG .02 .30 .20 10000 8180 0 GODII .01 1.00 - 10000 - 0 GOEBEL .01 .25 .25 10000 767 0 H .40 .76 .76 30000 10290 0 HAM .60 .90 .90 20000 15918 0 HANNO .15 .24 - 10000 500 0 HFINN 1.50 6.00 .01 10000 1005 0 IMMFR .25 .70 .80 10000 1838 0 JFREE .02 .50 .50 10000 3200 0 JOHN .30 .40 .35 10000 600 0 JPP .26 .29 .26 10000 3500 0 KARL 1.00 - 1.50 10000 1100 0 KLAUS .01 .45 .45 100000 37004 0 KNNTA .12 .24 .26 100000 13000 0 LEFTY .31 .42 .40 10000 4751 0 MARCR - - - - - 0 MEEKS - - - - - 0 MLINK - .01 .01 1000000 112602 0 MWM - 1.50 .01 10000 1260 0 N 1.50 9.00 5.00 10000 4749 0 P 22.50 24.00 1.50 1000000 94 0 PETER - .01 .01 10000000 601 0 PRICE - .01 .01 10000000 1410 0 R .40 .80 .70 10000 6100 0 RJC .65 2.00 1.00 10000 5200 0 ROMA - - - - - 0 RWHIT - - - - - 0 SAMEER .30 .75 .61 10000 9810 0 SHAWN .55 .55 .01 10000 25 0 SWANK - 1.00 - 10000 - 0 TIM .10 .60 .50 10000 2104 0 WILKEN 1.00 10.00 1.00 10000 102 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 0 Other reputations: Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding Traded 1000 .05 .40 .20 10000 5000 0 110 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 0 150 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 0 1E6 .20 - .20 10000 8825 0 1E9 .01 .09 .20 10000 7000 0 200 .02 .20 .10 10000 5075 0 80 .01 - - 10000 - 0 90 .01 - .10 10000 2000 0 ACS .10 .15 .12 10000 3223 0 AI .01 .09 .10 10000 2400 0 ALCOR .25 .85 .60 10000 3675.00 0 ALTINST - .25 .05 10000 4000 0 ANARCHY .20 .90 1.00 10000 1100 0 BIOPR .01 .09 .05 10000 3000 0 BITD .01 1.00 - 10000 - 0 BLACK - .10 .10 100000 6000 0 CHUCK - - - - - 0 CORWIN - - - - - 0 CYPHP .20 .40 .30 10000 10000 0 D&M - - - 10000 - 0 DC1000 - .10 - 10000 - 0 DC200 - .15 .10 10000 1500 0 DC7000 - .10 - 10000 - 0 DCFLOP .15 - .15 10000 6000 0 DRXLR .75 .90 .80 10000 4545 0 EXI .10 .55 .25 10000 3025 0 FAB - - - - - 0 GOD - .10 .10 10000 3000 0 GUNS - .90 1.00 10000 3900 0 HART - 1.99 2.00 10000 9000 0 HEINLN .28 .30 .30 10000 6600 0 HEX 100.00 101.00 100.00 10000 4188 0 KPJ - - - - - 0 LEARY .01 .50 .20 10000 1000 0 LEF .10 .35 .10 10000 5214 0 LIST .40 10.00 10.00 10000 5010 0 LP .25 .30 .50 10000 5625 0 LSOFT .50 1.00 .50 10000 9550 0 LURKR - .01 - 100000 - 0 MED21 .01 .30 .30 10000 5399 0 MMORE - 1.25 .10 10000 3000 0 MNSKY - 1.80 - 10000 - 0 MORE .38 1.25 .75 10000 2660 0 NEWTON - .50 .20 10000 1000 0 NLAW - .50 - 10000 - 0 NNLAW - .50 - 10000 - 0 NSS .02 .03 .01 10000 25 0 OCEAN .15 .18 .20 10000 6600 0 OOMPH - 15.53 22.00 20000 - 0 PENNY - .08 1.50 10000 2500 0 PGP - 1.00 1.00 100000 2100 0 PLANET .01 .02 .02 10000 4000 0 PPL .30 .45 .30 10000 4600 0 RAND .18 .20 .20 10000 3900 0 RAW - .05 - 10000 - 0 SHECKY - - - - - 0 SSI .15 .20 .20 10000 5200 0 TCMAY .20 .38 .38 10000 4900 0 TRANS .01 .90 .60 10000 3211 0 VINGE .01 1.00 .75 10000 3449 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 0 ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Nov 1993 00:00:02 +0500 From: The Hawthorne Exchange Subject: Nightly Market Report The Hawthorne Exchange - HEx Nightly Market Report For more information on HEx, send email to HEx@sea.east.sun.com with the Subject info. News Summary as of: Sun Nov 14 00:00:01 EST 1993 Newly Registered Reputations: (None) New Share Issues: (None) Share Splits: (None) Market Summary as of: Sat Nov 13 23:58:00 EST 1993 Reputations of members of the Extropians mailing list: [ Note: Contact hex-request to have a reputation placed on this list. ] Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding Traded AMARA .10 .50 .50 10000 2000 0 ANTON .61 .63 .63 10000 1943 0 ARKU .18 .31 .30 10000 5301 0 BLAIR .01 1.20 .01 10000 26 0 BROOX .01 1.00 - 10000 - 0 DEREK .06 .19 .19 100000 18930 0 DROSE - .15 .10 10000 3000 0 DRS - .15 .15 10000 2600 0 DVDT .75 1.75 1.70 10000 10000 0 E .80 1.00 .90 10000 8011 0 ESR - - - - - 0 FCP .06 1.30 1.50 80000 15345 0 GHG .02 .30 .20 10000 8180 0 GODII .01 1.00 - 10000 - 0 GOEBEL .01 .25 .25 10000 767 0 H .40 .76 .76 30000 10290 0 HAM .60 .90 .90 20000 15918 0 HANNO .15 .24 - 10000 500 0 HFINN 1.50 6.00 .01 10000 1005 0 IMMFR .25 .70 .80 10000 1838 0 JFREE .02 .50 .50 10000 3200 0 JOHN .30 .4 0 .35 10000 600 0 JPP .26 .29 .26 10000 3500 0 KARL 1.00 - 1.50 10000 1100 0 KLAUS .01 .45 .45 100000 37004 0 KNNTA .12 .24 .26 100000 13000 1000 LEFTY .31 .42 .40 10000 4751 0 MARCR - - - - - 0 MEEKS - - - - - 0 MLINK - .01 .01 1000000 112602 0 MWM - 1.50 .01 10000 1260 0 N 1.50 9.00 5.00 10000 4749 0 P 22.50 24.00 1.50 1000000 94 0 PETER - .01 .01 10000000 601 0 PRICE - .01 .01 10000000 1410 0 R .40 .80 .70 10000 6100 0 RJC .65 2.00 1.00 10000 5200 0 ROMA - - - - - 0 RWHIT - - - - - 0 SAMEER .30 .75 .61 10000 9810 0 SHAWN .55 .55 .01 10000 25 0 SWANK - 1.00 - 10000 - 0 TIM .10 .60 .50 10000 2104 0 WILKEN 1.00 10.00 1.00 10000 102 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 1000 Other reputations: Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding Traded 1000 .05 .40 .20 10000 5000 0 110 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 0 150 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 0 1E6 .20 - .20 10000 8825 0 1E9 .01 .09 .20 10000 7000 0 200 .02 .20 .10 10000 5075 0 80 .01 - - 10000 - 0 90 .01 - .10 10000 2000 0 ACS .10 .15 .12 10000 3223 0 AI .01 .09 .10 10000 2400 0 ALCOR .25 .85 .60 10000 3675.00 0 ALTINST - .25 .05 10000 4000 0 ANARCHY .20 .90 1.00 10000 1100 0 BIOPR .01 .09 .05 10000 3000 0 BITD .01 1.00 - 10000 - 0 BLACK - .10 .10 100000 6000 0 CHUCK - - - - - 0 CORWIN - - - - - 0 CYPHP .20 .40 .30 10000 10000 0 D&M - - - 10000 - 0 DC1000 - .10 - 10000 - 0 DC200 - .15 .10 10000 1500 0 DC7000 - .10 - 10000 - 0 DCFLOP .15 - .15 10000 6000 0 DRXLR .75 .90 .80 10000 4545 0 EXI .10 .55 .25 10000 3025 0 FAB - - - - - 0 GOD - .10 .10 10000 3000 0 GUNS - .90 1.00 10000 3900 0 HART - 1.99 2.00 10000 9000 0 HEINLN .28 .30 .30 10000 6600 0 HEX 100.00 101.00 100.00 10000 4188 0 KPJ - - - - - 0 LEARY .01 .50 .20 10000 1000 0 LEF .10 .35 .10 10000 5214 0 LIST .40 10.00 10.00 10000 5010 0 LP .25 .30 .50 10000 5625 0 LSOFT .50 1.00 .50 10000 9550 0 LURKR - .01 - 100000 - 0 MED21 .01 .30 .30 10000 5399 0 MMORE - 1.25 .10 10000 3000 0 MNSKY - 1.80 - 10000 - 0 MORE .38 1.25 .75 10000 2660 0 NEWTON - .50 .20 10000 1000 0 NLAW - .50 - 10000 - 0 NNLAW - .50 - 10000 - 0 NSS .02 .03 .01 10000 25 0 OCEAN .15 .18 .20 10000 6600 0 OOMPH - 15.53 22.00 20000 - 0 PENNY - .08 1.50 10000 2500 0 PGP - 1.00 1.00 100000 2100 0 PLANET .01 .02 .02 10000 4000 0 PPL .30 .45 .30 10000 4600 0 RAND .18 .20 .20 10000 3900 0 RAW - .05 - 10000 - 0 SHECKY - - - - - 0 SSI .15 .20 .20 10000 5200 0 TCMAY .20 .38 .38 10000 4900 0 TRANS .01 .90 .60 10000 3211 0 VINGE .01 1.00 .75 10000 3449 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 0 ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 12:12:18 -0600 From: pgf@srl02.cacs.usl.edu (Phil G. Fraering) Subject: Extropians Bo, my earlier comments weren't personal; there may be in fact some CRT display danger, there may not. BUT: the reason I was aggravated with you was that you had managed to confuse, in one post, electrons, beta rays, current discharges (fast and slow), and various types of electromagnetic radiation. All of these things behave differently, even if some of them are the same particle at different energies. Radio waves and gamma rays are the same particle, for instance. If you want to know a little more about the differences between all of these, there are physics books at your local library. Until you learn about this, please, keep your voice down a little! Our mail spools have finite space. Phil ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 93 10:27:27 PST From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: INVEST: Efficient Market Hypothesis and Wacky P/E Ratios Elias Israel writes: > So far, it's quite interesting, if perhaps a little slow. But I ran > across an item that made me wonder. At one point, during the 70's if > I remember correctly, Perot's EDS was selling at a P/E ratio of 500, > and perhaps should have had a P/E of 1000. Now, I can understand people > speculating that a particular company's earnings will increase in the > future, but how does the efficient market hypothesis account for people > speculating that the earnings of a company are going to increase by three > orders of magnitude? What rational person would buy a stock that might > take up to a millenium to earn back the price of admission? Simple way such a high P/Es can spontaneously appear: Foobar Corp. has earnings of $1.00 a share. Stock is selling for $12.00, for a P/E of 12. Earnings take a tumble, stock drops also, but not percentage-wise. Earnings are $0.10 a share, stock is $5, P/E is 50. And so on, as earnings drop to mere pennies a share or even vanish or even become a loss. (Which happens fairly often..."bad quarters," restructurings, whatever. The "difference of two large numbers" effect comes into play.) The reason the stock price doesn't drop proportionately? - the earnings can easily fluctuate to zero...the stock price won't (the company has a book value, other investors, future prospects, etc.) - the stock price is mostly what _other people_ will pay for it, not some multiple of the earnings per share. > Obviously, there's something about that stock at that time that I'm not > getting. In what sense can it be rational for investors to assume that > a stock price was going to stay that far out of line with the fundamentals > for any length of time? The "fundamentals" of a company are much more than just the earnings. The "book value" (breakup value, assets, cash in the bank, etc.) usually sets a floor on the stock price. Also, competitors may want to buy the company, and so on. The 50-to-1 P/Es seen on some biotech and high-tech stocks reflect future expectations of earnings (which can easily zoom from a nominal profit of $.05 a share to a much larger value--in one quarter). The 500-1 ratio cited for EDS probably reflected a temporary earnings crash. (Ironically, I met Perot in 1970--yes, 1970--just after he'd lost more than a billion dollars in the decline of his stock. He was still pretty cheerful.) --Tim May -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 12:29:34 -0600 From: pgf@srl02.cacs.usl.edu (Phil G. Fraering) Subject: Extropians dV/dt: >Or, as the Euclideans would have it, irrationality is the square >root of all evil. (Sorry.) Mike Price: >Shouldn't that be the Pythogoreans? (Double-plus sorry) Hanno Protagonists: Those were really bad. Someone should bean y'all with something. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 93 10:33:01 PST From: mlinksva@netcom.com (Michael R Linksvayer) Subject: VIACRYPT ADDRESS > ViaCrypt > 2104 W. Peoria Ave. > Phoenix, AZ 85029 > (602) 944-0773. > > They don't publish an email address, strangely enough. Tom may > be able to help you. Their email address is 70304.41@compuserve.com Mike Linksvayer mlinksva@netcom.com ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 13:48:59 -0500 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: Oceania opinion Peter F Bastien says: > Since you, the remaining people on this lists, normally seem to > be quite intelligent and forward thinkers, I would like to solicit your > opinions about the Oceania project. I recently received a copy of their > constitution and the general "we need your help" message and I was > wondering if in your opinion if they are worthwhile to get involved > with. I'm looking for opinions concerning practicality, reasonability, > realization of goals, parallels with other project, and projected > problems. Please back up your opinion with fact and/or reference > material. This is for my own personal interest and to hopefully get > a worthwhile thread going. Sorry, just opinion: any project that requires a billion dollars to complete should not be worrying about raising $25000 for fancy models. I also dislike making charitable contributions. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Nov 1993 14:06:33 -0500 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: INVEST: Efficient Market Hypothesis and Wacky P/E Ratios Elias Israel - SunSelect Engineering says: > However, recently I've been trying to learn a little about investment > (I have a small sum to invest, and it seems the extropian and intelligent > thing to do...) and I've been reading Lynch's _One up on Wall Street_. > So far, it's quite interesting, if perhaps a little slow. But I ran > across an item that made me wonder. At one point, during the 70's if > I remember correctly, Perot's EDS was selling at a P/E ratio of 500, > and perhaps should have had a P/E of 1000. Now, I can understand people > speculating that a particular company's earnings will increase in the > future, but how does the efficient market hypothesis account for people > speculating that the earnings of a company are going to increase by three > orders of magnitude? What rational person would buy a stock that might > take up to a millenium to earn back the price of admission? Why did tulip bulbs briefly cost more than new homes in Holland? Madness. The markets aren't ever perfectly efficient -- all thats guaranteed is that statistically the market is efficient most of the time over most items in the marketplace. Eventually, though, you are guaranteed that arbitrage will mean that the price will go into line with reality. Perry ------------------------------ End of Extropians Digest V93 #318 *********************************