From extropians-request@extropy.org Mon Nov 1 11:09:28 1993 Return-Path: Received: from usc.edu by chaph.usc.edu (4.1/SMI-4.1+ucs-3.0) id AA14705; Mon, 1 Nov 93 11:09:23 PST Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: from news.panix.com by usc.edu (4.1/SMI-3.0DEV3-USC+3.1) id AA09827; Mon, 1 Nov 93 11:09:12 PST Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: by news.panix.com id AA19666 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for more@usc.edu); Mon, 1 Nov 1993 14:01:37 -0500 Date: Mon, 1 Nov 1993 14:01:37 -0500 Message-Id: <199311011901.AA19666@news.panix.com> To: Extropians@extropy.org From: Extropians@extropy.org Subject: Extropians Digest X-Extropian-Date: November 1, 373 P.N.O. [19:01:29 UTC] Reply-To: extropians@extropy.org Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Status: RO Extropians Digest Mon, 1 Nov 93 Volume 93 : Issue 304 Today's Topics: PPL: Custody [1 msgs] BOOK: _The Turing Option_ [1 msgs] Beating the stock market [3 msgs] Beating the stock market [2 msgs] Biochronic drug being tested! [1 msgs] EXTROPIAN CORRECTNESS [1 msgs] FOOD:Crosspollination at U of Wisconsin-was Beating the Stock Market[1 msgs] MEDIA: PGP in CompuServe Magazine [1 msgs] MEDIA: Russell Whitaker on TV (C4, UK, 2000 3 Nov 93) [1 msgs] META: A Proposal for Easy Ratings of Articles and Authors [2 msgs] META: Apologies for ::nosend problems! [2 msgs] Nightly Market Report [2 msgs] Administrivia: No admin msg. Approximate Size: 51387 bytes. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 01 Nov 93 02:44:48 GMT From: extropia@eternity.demon.co.uk (Russell Earl Whitaker) Subject: MEDIA: PGP in CompuServe Magazine -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- 1 Nov 93 Yesterday, 31 Oct 93, in London, some of us privacy advocates held another meeting of the UK Cryptoprivacy Association. One of our regulars brought in the latest CompuServe Magazine, the issue of November 1993. I was delighted to read an article (pp 19-25), "The Digital Deadbolt", strongly advocating the use of secure cryptography, including PGP 2.3. The article, written by Christopher J. Galvin, an associate editor of the publication, was truly an advocacy piece. For those on CompuServe (CIS) who were unfamiliar with the issues, cogent and useful reasons for using encryption were given, with pointers for finding the relevant software. I quote: ZIFFNET PUBLIC BRAND SOFTWARE APPLICATION FORUM (GO PBSFORUM) Pretty Good Privacy 2.3 - The controversial program PGP combines the convenience of the RSA public-key cryptosystem with the speed of conventional cryptography to protect e-mail and data files. Includes digital signatures, data compression before encryption and sophisticated key management. Manual included. Freeware. Library 1, "Hot Off the Presses," PGPRIV.ZIP (232,895 bytes). Further file references included text in the CYBER FORUM (GO CYBERFORUM) on anonymous remailers (Library 13, "MONDO 2000," PRIVAC (7,078 bytes)), and a NIST publication on public-key cryptology in ELECTRONIC FRONTIER FORUM (GO EFFSIG), (Library 3, "The Frontier Files," PUB_KE.EXE (125,472 bytes)). CompuServe claims a worldwide subscriber base of around 1 million accounts. Every account holder is sent a monthly copy of CompuServe Magazine. Based on this circulation alone, the article is a notable achievement in public access to strong encryption. What makes it even more notable is the bald admission in the article that "... PGP and RIPEM aren't circulating as far as they might. They've been removed from various CompuServe forum libraries and some university Internet sites by sysops and administrators concerned that export laws might be violated by online availability." Those who are puzzled as to why, then, PGP is listed in the same article as being available _through_ CompuServe should take note that it is not available _on_ CompuServe. Having had some CompuServe experience myself, I was struck by what I think might be the case here: Ziffnet is a separate service from CompuServe (CIS), with CIS acting solely as a gateway. Ziff-Davis is a very large publishing house. Anyone who's been to trade shows around the world has run across the Ziff-Davis booth, where various of its magazines - the biggest names in the business - are given away as samples. It may be an ill-informed hunch on my part, but I suspect that Ziff-Davis is drawing on its statutory rights as a _publisher_ to make PGP available through one or more gateway services. If this is the case, I applaud them. And I congratulate CompuServe for having run Mr. Galvin's article. Christopher Galvin can be reached at 70003.5571@compuserve.com. Russell Earl Whitaker whitaker@eternity.demon.co.uk Communications Editor AMiX: RWhitaker EXTROPY: The Journal of Transhumanist Thought Board member, Extropy Institute (ExI) Co-organizer, 1st European Conference on Computers, Freedom and Privacy, London, 20 November 1993 -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: 2.3 iQCVAgUBLNRf6YTj7/vxxWtPAQEotgP/SU04KS325v8ca8ydCgr/358QsxmHhz// TtHkdhLRjvDLeWOEbG5LKY1VsVovU5YY1ru8h1xjrMqLiWvv4LQJanhg7I+D3Cpr J5xhM0IZSMotYKmCdY20SRdw918VA8JlNck+r1n40ozgdY8yOsAO6qdjOsolyquA OXShI0Gkzf8= =U0GH -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 01 Nov 93 03:30:19 GMT From: extropia@eternity.demon.co.uk (Russell Earl Whitaker) Subject: META: Apologies for ::nosend problems! Most of you may have noticed that I've sent a couple of articles by George Gilder - released by him to the net, of course - with subject lines simply "Forwarded article". My apologies! I've unsuccessfully tried using the ::nosend facility in both cases, and not only has that not worked (my own damned fault), but I've not sent descriptive subject lines. I'm going to work on my mailer now. -- Russell Earl Whitaker whitaker@eternity.demon.co.uk Communications Editor AMiX: RWhitaker EXTROPY: The Journal of Transhumanist Thought Board member, Extropy Institute (ExI) Co-organizer, 1st European Conference on Computers, Freedom and Privacy, London, 20 November 1993 ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 Oct 93 22:44:36 WET From: rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu (Ray) Subject: META: Apologies for ::nosend problems! Russell Earl Whitaker writes: > > Most of you may have noticed that I've sent a couple of articles > by George Gilder - released by him to the net, of course - with > subject lines simply "Forwarded article". My apologies! I've > unsuccessfully tried using the ::nosend facility in both cases, > and not only has that not worked (my own damned fault), but I've > not sent descriptive subject lines. > > I'm going to work on my mailer now. You forgot to tell Harry that you were using multiple addresses. You receive mail via extropia@eternity.demon.co.uk and the software expects to see messages from you at that site. However, you post from whitaker@eternity.demon.co.uk. The software can maintain multiple registered addresses, but you must let the list administrator know about them. I have entered whitaker@eternity.demon.co.uk into the list database, please let Harry know about any others. Commands should work now. -Ray -- Ray Cromwell | Engineering is the implementation of science; -- -- rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu | politics is the implementation of faith. -- ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 01 Nov 93 03:44:13 GMT From: extropia@eternity.demon.co.uk (Russell Earl Whitaker) Subject: MEDIA: Russell Whitaker on TV (C4, UK, 2000 3 Nov 93) Last week, I was asked to participate in a shoot for (London's) Channel 4 "Blow Your Mind", some of which will be inserted as a "vox pop" segment. The program airs Tuesday, 2 November 93, at 2000. It's an attempt to encourage teenagers to read. Sigh. Anyway, I don't often turn down offers to speak my piece: among the topics covered, I'll be shown (I hope) speaking about the possible future of electronic publishing and online books. The nice folks at Apple UK loaned me a Newton as a prop. :-) There were some other interesting questions, a couple of which were "Who are your favorite writers?" and "Why do you think science fiction is the _real_ mainstream literature?". :-) You would be right if you guessed that the friendly production people allowed me to pre-frame a few of the questions. -- Russell Earl Whitaker whitaker@eternity.demon.co.uk Communications Editor AMiX: RWhitaker EXTROPY: The Journal of Transhumanist Thought Board member, Extropy Institute (ExI) Co-organizer, 1st European Conference on Computers, Freedom and Privacy, London, 20 November 1993 ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 Oct 1993 21:13:15 -0500 (EST) From: PATRICK WILKEN Subject: Beating the stock market It occurs to me that another metaphor for the stock market might be the art market. I love photography and recently picked up a portrait by a young artist whom I think clearly shows promise (like a promising new company). Since she hasn't produced much work yet and has yet to have a major solo exhibition I think her work is relatively undervalued much like a company that has recently been formed. Of course the surface details are different between art and stock markets, but I wonder if at a fundamental level analysis there is a real difference. What you are trying to do in both incidences is try to assess the wishes of a future market in terms of the quality of the product and artist/company in the present. I don't think the hardest part is assessing the quality of the company or the artist - I know I have a good picture, Apple clearly had a good product when it was starting out - where someone like Tim May shows good market sense is assessing the market and deciding that people will want whatever product (e.g. PCs) it is producing but the market just doesn't know it yet. -Patrick Wilken ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 Oct 1993 20:40:12 -0500 (EST) From: PATRICK WILKEN Subject: Biochronic drug being tested! I came across the article below in today's paper. I thought it might be of interest to some of you after the recent discussion involving SAD and other such matters. Cheers, Patrick ------------------------------------------------- SUNDAY AGE 31/10/93 ANTI-JET-LAG DRUG TO BE TESTED HERE Anne Crawford A Melbourne academic will soon conduct trials into a drug that could cure jet-lag and provide relief for people who suffer from sleep disorders. Dr Jenny Redman, a Monash University psychologist, has been commissioned by Servier, the French pharmaceutical giant, to trial the chemical compound, called S-20098, which would have billion-dollar potential if commercialised. Dr Redman said the drug, developed by Servier and tested on animals, and already proved effective in altering circadian rhythms - the body's biological "clock" that determines sleep. She said it was hoped it would alleviate the general feeling of malaise suffered by shift-workers and people with sleep or mood disorders such as "Seasonal Affective Disorder" (the "winter blues"). Elderly people in the early stages of Alzheimer's disease who had disrupted sleep patterns would also benefit from the "chronobiotic" drug. As well as helping tourists after long flights, the drug would have real benefits for politicians, performing artists and the members of the armed forces who needed to be alert as soon as they arrived at their overseas destination. "These people are known to have their performance impaired in the first few days after they arrive - they're not as good at making decisions, not as vigilant," Dr Redman said. She said S-20098, which was not a sedative, had to be taken at specific times of the day to be effective. Experiments on rats had shown that it advanced the body clock, reinstating the appropriate sleep-wake cycle. It was not clear why the drug worked but it appeared that it acted directly on receptors at the base of the brain she said. Dr Redman said she was approached by Servier to test S- 20098 because of previous work she dad conducted with La Trobe University researcher Dr Stuart Armstrong into melatonin, a natural substance that had similar effects to the synthetic drug. This research suggested that it was possible to reat sleep disorders, but Australian efforts to interst a drug company into backing research into commercialising a remedy for them had been unsuccessful, she said. Dr Redman said S-20098 did not have any known side-effects. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 Oct 1993 23:43:54 -0500 From: ddf2@postoffice.mail.cornell.edu (David Friedman) Subject: Beating the stock market Nick Szabo writes: >Perry, Tim May, David Friedman, et. al. have mentioned investing in >individual stocks based on an evaluation of the business's use of >technology (typically in their products). ... >(3) These strategies are often subjective, insufficiently explained >and therefore non-replicable. This also makes it difficult to >determine risk profiles, integrate the strategy into computerized >portfolio analysis, etc. Necessarily so. Anything that can be done in an objective, replicable, computerized, ... way is not going to yield above market returns. That is one of the lessons of efficient market theory. David Friedman Cornell Law School DDF2@Cornell.Edu ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 01 Nov 93 00:10:03 EST From: The Hawthorne Exchange Subject: Nightly Market Report The Hawthorne Exchange - HEx Nightly Market Report For more information on HEx, send email to HEx@sea.east.sun.com with the Subject info. News Summary as of: Mon Nov 1 00:10:03 EST 1993 Newly Registered Reputations: (None) New Share Issues: (None) Share Splits: (None) Market Summary as of: Mon Nov 1 00:00:03 EST 1993 Reputations of members of the Extropians mailing list: [ Note: Contact hex-request to have a reputation placed on this list. ] Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding AMARA .10 .50 .50 10000 1000 ANTON .61 .63 .63 10000 1943 ARKU .18 .31 .30 10000 5301 BLAIR .01 1.20 .01 10000 26 BROOX .01 1.00 - 10000 - DEREK .06 .19 .19 100000 18430 DROSE - .15 .10 10000 3000 DRS - .15 .15 10000 2600 DVDT .75 1.75 1.70 10000 10000 E .80 1.00 .90 10000 8011 ESR - - - - - FCP .06 1.30 1.50 80000 15345 GHG .02 .30 .20 10000 8180 GODII .01 1.00 - 10000 - GOEBEL .01 .25 .25 10000 767 H .40 .76 .76 30000 10290 HAM .60 .90 .90 20000 15918 HANNO .15 .24 - 10000 500 HFINN 1.50 6.00 .01 10000 1005 IMMFR .25 .70 .80 10000 1838 JFREE .02 .50 .50 10000 3200 JOHN .30 .40 .35 10000 600 JPP .26 .29 .26 10000 3500 KARL 1.00 1.50 1.50 10000 1001 KLAUS - .45 .45 100000 36004 KNNTA .12 .19 .26 100000 10100 LEFTY .31 .40 .40 10000 4751 MARCR - - - - - MEEKS - - - - - MLINK - .01 .01 1000000 102602 MWM - 1.50 .01 10000 1260 N 5.00 9.00 9.00 10000 4750 P 22.50 25.00 1.50 1000000 94 PETER - .01 .01 10000000 601 PRICE - .01 .01 10000000 1410 R .40 .80 .70 10000 6100 RJC .65 2.00 1.00 10000 5200 ROMA - - - - - RWHIT - - - - - SAMEER .30 .75 .61 10000 9810 SHAWN .55 .55 .01 10000 25 SWANK - 1.00 - 10000 - TIM .10 .60 .50 10000 2104 WILKEN 1.00 10.00 1.00 10000 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other reputations: Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding 1000 .05 .40 .20 10000 5000 110 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 150 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 1E6 .20 - .20 10000 8825 1E9 .01 .09 .20 10000 7000 200 .02 .20 .10 10000 5075 80 .01 - - 10000 - 90 .01 - .10 10000 2000 ACS .10 .15 .12 10000 3223 AI .01 .09 .10 10000 2400 ALCOR .25 .85 .60 10000 3675.00 ALTINST - .25 .05 10000 4000 ANARCHY .20 .90 1.00 10000 1100 BIOPR .01 .09 .05 10000 3000 BITD .01 1.00 - 10000 - BLACK - .10 .10 100000 6000 CHUCK - - - - - CYPHP .20 .40 .30 10000 10000 D&M - - - 10000 - DC1000 - .10 - 10000 - DC200 - .15 .10 10000 1500 DC7000 - .10 - 10000 - DCFLOP .15 - .15 10000 6000 DRXLR .75 .90 .80 10000 4545 EXI .10 .25 1.54 10000 3025 FAB - - - - - GOD - .10 .10 10000 3000 GUNS - .90 1.00 10000 3900 HART - 1.99 2.00 10000 9000 HEINLN .28 .30 .30 10000 6600 HEX 100.00 101.00 100.00 10000 4088 KPJ - - - - - LEARY .01 .50 .20 10000 1000 LEF .10 .35 .10 10000 5214 LIST .40 10.00 .75 10000 5000 LP .25 .30 .50 10000 5625 LSOFT .50 1.00 .50 10000 9550 LURKR - .01 - 100000 - MED21 .01 .30 .30 10000 5399 MMORE - 1.25 .10 10000 3000 MNSKY - 1.80 - 10000 - MORE .38 1.25 .75 10000 2660 NEWTON - .50 .20 10000 1000 NLAW - .50 - 10000 - NNLAW - .50 - 10000 - NSS .02 .03 .01 10000 25 OCEAN .15 .18 .20 10000 6600 OOMPH - 15.53 22.00 20000 - PENNY - .08 1.50 10000 2500 PGP - 1.00 1.00 100000 2100 PLANET .01 .02 .02 10000 4000 PPL .30 .45 .30 10000 4600 RAND .18 .20 .20 10000 3900 RAW - .05 - 10000 - SHECKY - - - - - SSI .15 .20 .20 10000 5200 TCMAY .38 .40 .38 10000 6200 TRANS .01 .90 .60 10000 3211 VINGE .01 1.00 .75 10000 3449 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 Oct 93 23:10:03 EST From: The Hawthorne Exchange Subject: Nightly Market Report The Hawthorne Exchange - HEx Nightly Market Report For more information on HEx, send email to HEx@sea.east.sun.com with the Subject info. News Summary as of: Sun Oct 31 23:10:03 EST 1993 Newly Registered Reputations: (None) New Share Issues: (None) Share Splits: (None) Market Summary as of: Sun Oct 31 23:00:03 EST 1993 Reputations of members of the Extropians mailing list: [ Note: Contact hex-request to have a reputation placed on this list. ] Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding AMARA .10 .50 .50 10000 1000 ANTON .61 .63 .63 10000 1943 ARKU .18 .31 .30 10000 5301 BLAIR .01 1.20 .01 10000 26 BROOX .01 1.00 - 10000 - DEREK .06 .19 .19 100000 18430 DROSE - .15 .10 10000 3000 DRS - .15 .15 10000 2600 DVDT .75 1.75 1.70 10000 10000 E .80 1.00 .90 10000 8011 ESR - - - - - FCP .06 1.30 1.50 80000 15345 GHG .02 .30 .20 10000 8180 GODII .01 1.00 - 10000 - GOEBEL .01 .25 .25 10000 767 H .40 .76 .76 30000 10290 HAM .60 .90 .90 20000 15918 HANNO .15 .24 - 10000 500 HFINN 1.50 6.00 .01 10000 1005 IMMFR .25 .70 .80 10000 1838 JFREE .02 .50 .50 10000 3200 JOHN .30 .40 .35 10000 600 JPP .26 .29 .26 10000 3500 KARL 1.00 1.50 1.50 10000 1001 KLAUS - .45 .45 100000 36004 KNNTA .12 .19 .26 100000 10100 LEFTY .31 .40 .40 10000 4751 MARCR - - - - - MEEKS - - - - - MLINK - .01 .01 1000000 102602 MWM - 1.50 .01 10000 1260 N 5.00 9.00 9.00 10000 4750 P 22.50 25.00 1.50 1000000 94 PETER - .01 .01 10000000 601 PRICE - .01 .01 10000000 1410 R .40 .80 .70 10000 6100 RJC .65 2.00 1.00 10000 5200 ROMA - - - - - RWHIT - - - - - SAMEER .30 .75 .61 10000 9810 SHAWN .55 .55 .01 10000 25 SWANK - 1.00 - 10000 - TIM .10 .60 .50 10000 2104 WILKEN 1.00 10.00 1.00 10000 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other reputations: Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding 1000 .05 .40 .20 10000 5000 110 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 150 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 1E6 .20 - .20 10000 8825 1E9 .01 .09 .20 10000 7000 200 .02 .20 .10 10000 5075 80 .01 - - 10000 - 90 .01 - .10 10000 2000 ACS .10 .15 .12 10000 3223 AI .01 .09 .10 10000 2400 ALCOR .25 .85 .60 10000 3675.00 ALTINST - .25 .05 10000 4000 ANARCHY .20 .90 1.00 10000 1100 BIOPR .01 .09 .05 10000 3000 BITD .01 1.00 - 10000 - BLACK - .10 .10 100000 6000 CHUCK - - - - - CYPHP .20 .40 .30 10000 10000 D&M - - - 10000 - DC1000 - .10 - 10000 - DC200 - .15 .10 10000 1500 DC7000 - .10 - 10000 - DCFLOP .15 - .15 10000 6000 DRXLR .75 .90 .80 10000 4545 EXI .10 .25 1.54 10000 3025 FAB - - - - - GOD - .10 .10 10000 3000 GUNS - .90 1.00 10000 3900 HART - 1.99 2.00 10000 9000 HEINLN .28 .30 .30 10000 6600 HEX 100.00 101.00 100.00 10000 4088 KPJ - - - - - LEARY .01 .50 .20 10000 1000 LEF .10 .35 .10 10000 5214 LIST .40 10.00 .75 10000 5000 LP .25 .30 .50 10000 5625 LSOFT .50 1.00 .50 10000 9550 LURKR - .01 - 100000 - MED21 .01 .30 .30 10000 5399 MMORE - 1.25 .10 10000 3000 MNSKY - 1.80 - 10000 - MORE .38 1.25 .75 10000 2660 NEWTON - .50 .20 10000 1000 NLAW - .50 - 10000 - NNLAW - .50 - 10000 - NSS .02 .03 .01 10000 25 OCEAN .15 .18 .20 10000 6600 OOMPH - 15.53 22.00 20000 - PENNY - .08 1.50 10000 2500 PGP - 1.00 1.00 100000 2100 PLANET .01 .02 .02 10000 4000 PPL .30 .45 .30 10000 4600 RAND .18 .20 .20 10000 3900 RAW - .05 - 10000 - SHECKY - - - - - SSI .15 .20 .20 10000 5200 TCMAY .38 .40 .38 10000 6200 TRANS .01 .90 .60 10000 3211 VINGE .01 1.00 .75 10000 3449 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 1 Nov 93 0:16:39 WET From: rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu (Ray) Subject: META: A Proposal for Easy Ratings of Articles and Authors The "rating"/"ranking" system has been a major "coming attraction" for a long time. Sasha has been working out the details of a rating system since about July and it may be here sometime near the end of November. I'm still polishing up the main list code in preparation for its release, and the accounting additions (for Pay for Use) but Sasha may have someone else who can work on the rating system. Rather than just averaging all of the ratings on a post which is similar to voting, a rating system should weigh each individual rating according to how similar other ``raters'' are to your view point. (Which can be computed by taking the distance between two vectors in rating space) The difference between your rating of the post and the rating computed from everyone else can be used to adjust your vector. (I'd call these "interest vectors" being a measure of what you are interested in relative to everyone else) The simplest system could define a vector for prefixes, e.g. tim's_vector=({AITVirtSem, 9.7}, {CRYPTO, 9.4}, {POLI, 5}, {ECON, 6.3}, {SPACE, 7.5}, {PHIL, 2.1}, etc) -Ray -- Ray Cromwell | Engineering is the implementation of science; -- -- rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu | politics is the implementation of faith. -- ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 Oct 93 22:16:58 PST From: szabo@netcom.com (Nick Szabo) Subject: Beating the stock market David Friedman: > Necessarily so. Anything that can be done in an objective, replicable, > computerized, ... way is not going to yield above market returns. That is > one of the lessons of efficient market theory. We must be suffering from incredible distortion in our communcations channel here! Considering the $billions spent on computers on Wall Street, much of it for use in the process of generating strategies and executing trade, considering the boatloads of mathematics used by both financial analysts and economists, consdering the finite nature or "bounded rationality" of both human and computer, considering the $billions that have been made off simple formulas like Black-Scholes and computerized synthetic assets, considering all the previous evidence I've given about different utility functions, consistent utility (or rationality) biases, inefficiencies introduced by central banks in attempts to control a state's currency, etc., the efficient market hypothesis in this "strong" form is seriously out of touch with reality. About on the same level as creationism, paganism, astrology, etc. Surely David Friedman has more to say than the above brief comment, which might be interpreted to imply that observation doesn't count, superstition reigns. (Perhaps appropriate on All Hallow's Eve! Where's Eric Raymond when we need him?) curious about what you really meant to say, Nick Szabo szabo@netcom.com ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 Oct 1993 22:37:58 -0800 From: John K Clark Subject: EXTROPIAN CORRECTNESS On 31 Oct 1993 "Phil G. Fraering" pgf@srl01.cacs.usl.edu Wrote: >1. John, although I'm in agreement with Harr}iy about what he >said, in your response you attributed something he said to >me. Please don't do that in the future. It causes confusion. Sorry, I should have noticed you were quoting somebody, although in your original post you never said who you were quoting and this also causes confusion. In your second post you said this mysterious person was Harr}iy. How do you pronounce it ? John K Clark johnkc@well.sf.ca.us ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 1 Nov 93 6:45:23 GMT From: starr@genie.slhs.udel.edu Subject: PPL: Custody >From: Alexander Chislenko >Subject: PPL: Custody > >Me>> Could anybody explain me how the idea of custody would work under PPL? > > I don't mean to sound too critical, but I still don't understand how >it can work... I don't blame you. I answered the question from the external, third-person point of view, which isn't very informative no matter how much bad philosophers of science think it is in the social sciences. >Hmm... Suppose my child is smart enough to earn a lot of money and contract >the best agency to protect her 'right' to eat more than 10 chocolate bars a >day that I allow her - she just loves chocolate, and can't control herself; >for a good price she will sure find 'better' custodians who will let he do >it. Or an uncontrollable craving for chocolate is by itself a sign of >incompetence? - than what do we do with adults who have it? She'd be in chocoholic heaven. In my opinion, however, everyone can control themselves. Sasha made some observations about the difficulty of determining an age at which someone becomes competent. I agree that this is a difficult problem; I would even go so far as to argue that 'tis impossible, and the whole effort ought to be abandoned. Presume competence at all ages; it's just so easy to prove a newborn incompetent that it needn't go to court. Teenagers would be on the borderlines, public employee union reps would clearly be incompetent no matter what their age. > Would you give a driving licence to everybody who hasn't proven unable >to drive? Yep. My grandfather drove a truck for a living at age 12, back before driver's licences were imposed to collect revenue (the claim that their purpose is safety is statist disinformation). Never had an accident. >What about having babies? Are 13-year-olds allowed to try? They are in New Mexico. Sexual age of consent is 12 in the Netherlands. >If they can't handle the baby, when can they try next time? at 14 ? >Who determines that? Whenever. They decide for themselves. >Who takes care of abandoned babies/orphans? Anybody that wants to. >Some of them nobody may be interested in adopting. Will they die? Yep. > Also, who will enforce the restrictions? What restrictions? >(Bear in mind that different agencies may have different views on >the person's competence). What sort of thing do you have in mind? Tim Starr - Renaissance Now! Assistant Editor: Freedom Network News, the newsletter of ISIL, The International Society for Individual Liberty, 1800 Market St., San Francisco, CA 94102 (415) 864-0952; FAX: (415) 864-7506; 71034.2711@compuserve.com Think Universally, Act Selfishly - starr@genie.slhs.udel.edu ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 1 Nov 93 00:53:24 -0800 From: tribble@netcom.com (E. Dean Tribble) Subject: META: A Proposal for Easy Ratings of Articles and Authors I like your proposed rating scheme. It's all to easy to figure out how much better a better scheme could be (weighted reputation systems or some such), and not realize how much better a lesser scheme is than what we've got. Since few if any of us have operated in even a simple reputation scheme, I suspect we would learn a *lot* about them (relative to what other people know) by trying something straightforward and basic. dean ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 01 Nov 1993 09:48:41 -0500 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: Beating the stock market PATRICK WILKEN says: > Of course the surface details are different between art and > stock markets, but I wonder if at a fundamental level analysis there is > a real difference. What you are trying to do in both incidences is try > to assess the wishes of a future market in terms of the quality of the > product and artist/company in the present. There are two differences. One of them is that there is no way to objectively assess the value of art, whereas there is a way to objectively assess the value of some stock -- if I bought the whole company out, what would my rate of return be, and is it such that I could reasonably arbitrage against current interest bearing securities? Art has no such measures -- much horrible art is highly valued (look at cretins like Robert Longo) and much good art will never see the light of day. The absolutely only way to tell what art is currently worth is to auction it. The other difference is that I intimately understand the issues in a technology company -- I grok the products in a way that most analysts wouldn't. I have no special knowledge of the art market -- I'm way outgunned. There is, by the way, a risk to stock investing that we haven't mentioned thus far, which is that of whole-market crashes. Right now, I know some people (who I don't entirely believe, but thats beside the point) who think that the U.S. stock market is overvalued. Given the way corporate profits have been doing recently it may or may not be a reasonable assessment. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 01 Nov 1993 10:00:44 -0500 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: Beating the stock market Nick Szabo says: > David Friedman: > > Necessarily so. Anything that can be done in an objective, replicable, > > computerized, ... way is not going to yield above market returns. That is > > one of the lessons of efficient market theory. > > We must be suffering from incredible distortion in our communcations > channel here! Considering the $billions spent on computers on Wall > Street, much of it for use in the process of generating strategies and > executing trade, The vast majority of the money spent is on automating the mechanics of trading, bookkeeping, etc. There are very few companies doing computer DIRECTED trading except in the crude sense of certain kinds of automated arbitrages in things like the currency markets. Many firms, like the one I work for, have no groups doing the other sort of thing at all. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 1 Nov 1993 09:01:31 -0600 From: cpresson@jido.b30.ingr.com (Craig Presson) Subject: BOOK: _The Turing Option_ In <01H4OZ126WSY8WWCYY@VENUS.CIS.YALE.EDU>, LEVY%54447@VENUS.CIS.YALE.EDU writes: |> I just finished reading _The Turing Option_, by Harrison & Minsky, and thought I'd |> share my impressions with the List. If anyone is interested in reviewing this book |> for _Exponent_, please let me know privately. I'll take that if the deadline is not too close. I have info from Minsky that I can allude to. ^ / ------/---- cpresson@ingr.com (Freeman Craig Presson) /AS 5/20/373 PNO; ISGS 9/373; ExI 4/373, NRA 5/373, etc. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 1 Nov 1993 09:33:11 -0600 From: cpresson@jido.b30.ingr.com (Craig Presson) Subject: FOOD:Crosspollination at U of Wisconsin-was Beating the Stock Market In <199310310117.AA01994@postoffice.mail.cornell.edu>, David Friedman writes: |> >I have done all of the above except lion and ram's balls (you haven't |> >had sheep balls, either, Harry :-). |> (Freeman Craig Presson) |> |> Why not? Rams are male, Ewes are female, Sheep are either. Oooops. He's right, ya know, Hawk. You had a 50-50 chance by asking for sheep's balls :-) [...] |> My wife and I cook and compile recipes from very early cookbooks. Our |> earliest source is 6th century, and most of our stuff 13th-15th century. Can you elaborate on the palatability of this stuff? ^ / ------/---- cpresson@ingr.com (Freeman Craig Presson) /AS 5/20/373 PNO; ISGS 9/373; ExI 4/373, NRA 5/373, etc. ------------------------------ End of Extropians Digest V93 #304 *********************************