From extropians-request@extropy.org Mon Sep 20 05:01:16 1993 Return-Path: Received: from usc.edu by chaph.usc.edu (4.1/SMI-4.1+ucs-3.0) id AA12600; Mon, 20 Sep 93 05:01:15 PDT Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: from ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.ed (ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu) by usc.edu (4.1/SMI-3.0DEV3-USC+3.1) id AA25918; Mon, 20 Sep 93 05:01:09 PDT Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: by ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu id AA04392; Mon, 20 Sep 93 07:56:17 EDT Received: from news.panix.com by ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu via TCP with SMTP id AA04387; Mon, 20 Sep 93 07:55:52 EDT Received: by news.panix.com id AA01437 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for exi-maillist@ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu); Mon, 20 Sep 1993 07:55:44 -0400 Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1993 07:55:44 -0400 Message-Id: <199309201155.AA01437@news.panix.com> To: Extropians@extropy.org From: Extropians@extropy.org Subject: Extropians Digest X-Extropian-Date: September 20, 373 P.N.O. [11:55:30 UTC] Reply-To: extropians@extropy.org Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Status: RO Extropians Digest Mon, 20 Sep 93 Volume 93 : Issue 262 Today's Topics: [4 msgs] "Timmy the Geek"....NOT! [1 msgs] American Letter Mail (not) [1 msgs] Anachro-, arachno-, a [1 msgs] Announcing a Second Bet, and Comments [2 msgs] Bobby Ray Inman wants ciphers restricted! (fwd) [1 msgs] ECON: Some actual data! [1 msgs] Galt Strike [2 msgs] Gang alerts [1 msgs] Gang alerts [1 msgs] Meta: farewell, michael [1 msgs] Retry flyer send [1 msgs] The Case Against Gun Control [1 msgs] Tim's wager [1 msgs] stealing from the post office [1 msgs] Administrivia: No admin msg. Approximate Size: 53935 bytes. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 18:20:35 PDT From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: Bobby Ray Inman wants ciphers restricted! (fwd) (Here's hoping this message makes it through this time.) From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: Bobby Ray Inman wants ciphers restricted! (fwd) To: extropians@extropy.org Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 11:16:28 PDT Tropes, Here's a message I sent earlier to the Cypherpunks mailing list. I have decoupled the two sendings (this one after the first) to hopefully head-off cross-posting. That is, this list is "blind cc:'ed". News on the crypto front continues to intensify, and I still urge Extropians to look carefully at cryptology as the basic "glue" for building an Extropian future. -Tim Forwarded message: >From tcmay Sun Sep 19 11:12:34 1993 From: tcmay (Timothy C. May) Message-Id: <9309191812.AA20377@netcom5.netcom.com> Subject: Bobby Ray Inman wants ciphers restricted! To: cypherpunks@toad.com Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 11:12:31 PDT Cc: tcmay (Timothy C. May) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11] Here's another one of those apparent "trial balloons," this time from an influential former Director of the NSA. As DIRNSA, Admiral Inman was the one who in the late 1970s proposed restrictions on the use of public key cryptography, at least according to Bamford in "The Puzzle Palace." Inman later was in the CIA, then MCC in Austin, and is now involved in venture capital in various ways. I believe his VC firm invested in Cylink, one of the four partners in Public Key Partners (the others being RSADSI, Stanford, and MIT). (Paranoids like us might look for links to Mykotronx....) Enough speculation for now. Here's the item: From: howard@hal.com (Howard Gayle) Newsgroups: talk.politics.crypto,alt.politics.libertarian,comp.org.eff.talk,alt.privacy.clipper Subject: von Mises Inst. Free Market article on Clipper Date: 19 Sep 1993 16:29:34 GMT Message-ID: <27i1de$edv@hal.com> Reply-To: howard@hal.com (Howard Gayle) Summary: Government subsidies imply government control. Keywords: Bobby Ray Inman, NSA, registration, EFF The September 1993 issue of "The Free Market" has an article by Gary McGath about Clipper. "The Free Market" is a monthly non-technical newsletter from the Ludwig von Mises Institute. Gary McGath is the publisher of the "Thomas Paine Review." Here's a quote: "Bobby Ray Inman, former director of the NSA, has even proposed `a registry of institutions which can legally use ciphers,' as he explained in his recent book. `If you get somebody using one who isn't registered, then you go after him.'" McGath also mentions the EFF: "The Electronic Frontier Foundation, which opposes the Clipper, still applauds legislation to subsidize network access. But by inviting the government to build their `highway,' EFF is inviting in the traffic cops. "The only way to keep our communications free of governmental intrusion is to keep them free of governmental involvement." -- Howard Gayle HAL Computer Systems, Inc. 1315 Dell Avenue Campbell, California 95008 USA howard@hal.com Phone: +1 408 379 7000 extension 1080 FAX : +1 408 379 5022 -- -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1993 21:29:32 -0400 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: stealing from the post office Carl Feynman says: > It seems to me that the postal service is really quite efficient and > reliable, when you consider how cheap they are. If the market were opened > to competition, I think they would do well. This makes it all the more > stupid that their monopoly is still protected by force. Sorry, Carl, but this is wrong. One would expect that increasing automation would have reduced the labor required to move letters around. Instead, featherbedding and similar practices have increased labor costs as a fraction of the postal budget dramatically over the years. A barcoded letter should be able to go from end to end almost untouched by human hands until hit hits the letter carrier -- instead, its touched over and over again to make union folks happy. OCR, barcoding, etc, have not resulted in the expected cost reductions. Furthermore, mail is being delivered ever slower, there are now only deliveries once a day when there used to be two, and the post office is so bad at even overnight mail that people willingly pay more to avoid using them. They also still lose money, no matter what they do. They need a personel reduction done with an axe. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Sep 93 19:46:00 -0500 From: michael.morgan@ehbbs.com (Michael Morgan) Subject: Non-lethal weapons (w On 09-17-93 09:44, Richard Kennaway wrote to Michael Morgan regarding: "Non-lethal weapons (was r"... RK> The government already has one: the police and penal system. Ok, it RK> does kill some people, but that's going to be a problem with any RK> supposedly non-lethal weapon. The criminal system is totally ineffective. Five years ago the SCOTUS found that police forces are not there to deter crimes, but to clean up after them. RK> What problem is a non-lethal weapon supposed to solve, anyway? Who is RK> this "we" that needs a stunner? Most defensive uses of handguns don't RK> actually result in deaths, or even injuries. That's a good point. A lethal weapon's main use is to deter. But you still have to be willing to pull the trigger and face those twelve smiling jurists. RK> A non-lethal weapon would also make a dandy tool for kidnapping and RK> no-knock searches. Avoids the PR problems of killing innocent people. A weapon is a weapon. Even a stick is a weapon when used for those purposes. ... Evangelists: the higher the hair, the closer to God. --- Blue Wave/QWK v2.10 ---- +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | Ed Hopper's BBS - Home of uuPCB - Usenet for PC Board | | Node 1 - USR HST - 404-446-9462 Node 2 - V.32bis - 404-446-9465 | +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Sep 93 19:10:00 -0500 From: michael.morgan@ehbbs.com (Michael Morgan) Subject: Meta: farewell, micha On 09-16-93 22:35, Dave Krieger wrote to Michael Morgan regarding: "Meta: farewell, michael m"... Christ, you guys give up way too easy. B^) Much easier than my Christian antagonists. DK> Michael, I'm ::excluding you on the basis of the following moronic DK> statement: > [after re-posting the same Eshleman summary of logical fallacies that > Perry posted in #93-8-378, ending with "shifting the burden of proof".] >I asked questions about the ethics of anachrocapitalism. I think the >burden of proof lays upon the believers of anachrocapitalism. DK> Sorry, Michael; but here, on _our_ list, the burden of proof lies with DK> assholes like you who come in to preach the consensus of "conventional DK> wisdom". I don't remember preaching anything. I asked questions. Perhaps the questions are too difficult for you? DK> We've been pursuing Bertrand Russell's commandments, with or DK> without explicit knowledge of them, and our intelligent dissent has DK> led us to a world-view different than that of the rest of the world. DK> We have left numerous plain markers along the path we took (namely, the DK> reading list) so that any who also choose intelligent dissent may DK> follow. Where did I ever indicate that such an action was wrong? DK> The ideas we discuss here are complex. It does take entire books to DK> answer some questions; only an idiot claims that all questions have DK> simple answers. I agree. But I'd expect a believer in anything to be able to support it better than you have. DK> And, yes, I'm switching to decaf. Probably too late. B^) ... Puns are bad, but poetry is verse! --- Blue Wave/QWK v2.10 ---- +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | Ed Hopper's BBS - Home of uuPCB - Usenet for PC Board | | Node 1 - USR HST - 404-446-9462 Node 2 - V.32bis - 404-446-9465 | +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Sep 93 19:13:00 -0500 From: michael.morgan@ehbbs.com (Michael Morgan) Subject: Anachro-, arachno-, a On 09-16-93 22:35, Timothy C. May wrote to Michael Morgan regarding: "Anachro-, arachno-, and a"... Great post. B^) TCM> (Since you can't tell the players in the capitalism game without a TCM> scorecard, here's a handy one.) TCM> I enjoyed seeing Michael Morgan's "anachrocapitalism," whether TCM> deliberate or unintentional: It's completely unintentional. I don't have that word in my spelling checker yet. I really should take a little longer in proofreading my posts. ... I put spot remover on my dog. Now he's gone! --- Blue Wave/QWK v2.10 ---- +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | Ed Hopper's BBS - Home of uuPCB - Usenet for PC Board | | Node 1 - USR HST - 404-446-9462 Node 2 - V.32bis - 404-446-9465 | +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 21:12:06 CDT From: derek@cs.wisc.edu (Derek Zahn) Subject: Tim's wager Tim May: > My BET: I will bet $10 that a "members only" new list software system > (with nonmembers getting access to the old software, or unfeatured > software, as I have discussed at length) will produce the following: > > * The product of (number of members) x (fee for membership) > $2000 > > If my scheme is adopted, and this is satisfied within one year of the > announcement of the new plan (it takes time for conversion, after > all), then I win. If the scheme is adopted, and the revenue is less > than $2000, I lose. I'll take that bet. ("toy" bets like $10 are in my opinion a much better use of betting in a forum such as this than $1000 showdowns) How about this: If sales are tied to ExI membership, we'll work out a reasonable way of computing "fee for membership". If not, it's just as you state. One minor point: As is implied above, monies received, say, from the Electronic International Communist Conspiracy to run their own list or from Microsoft to quickly build it into Chicago don't count. This is a service to the Extropians mailing list. And of course it's up to Hawk & co. to choose and implement pricing and marketing strategies -- no fair claiming that it _could_ have grossed $2000 if only they'd followed your advice... Who will hold the money? I assume that no lurker will turn us in to the FBI... I think it's close, but 1) $2000 seems just a little out of reach given the size and nature of the market; 2) I really would like to see such a venture tried; I think it would be fascinating. It's almost worth $10 to remind me to pay attention, and often people perform better when they're being bet on. The pricing issue is certainly an interesting one... seems to me that $20 / yr or a $10 add-on to an ExI membership is probably about right. The best way to maximize income is probably to impose rather draconian message length limits, requiring the ::resend feature to get the longer messages (making this a "shareware" list). However, if it was too draconian, the risk is run of a competing list being formed. Personally, I'd love to lose this bet; the evolution of the capabilities of the Net is one of my favorite things. Here's why I don't think it'll make it: The current software, especially the digest (which of course a mail junkie like me doesn't get) really isn't that inconvenient. The new software doesn't really give that many wonderful features... ::exclude seems to be the most popular (after ::help no doubt). Why shouldn't I just add a filter to my mail program to do ::exclude's myself and just get everything? If I keep archives of interesting stuff, ::resend becomes pretty much redundant (though archives of member photos, autobios, essays available only via the new list software might be an incentive to pay). Still, the potential of richer email is enormous. The widespread availability of sophisticated mail user interfaces and the adoption of headers to carry out-of-band information along with messages (or the automation of message body generation) will help things in the medium term (and digicash in the long term), but it's unclear how fast the "default" view of email will change in the short term. My position in the bet will be for sale as soon as we clearly have a bet going. Opening price: $13. derek ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1993 22:18:06 -0400 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: Meta: farewell, michael I know this is in bad taste to say publically, but until someone presents me with evidence that he's got something of value to say, I'm "::excluding" michael morgan. Think of this as a market indicator. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1993 22:26:03 -0400 From: Duncan Frissell Subject: ECON: Some actual data! T.>Well, I did some browsing on the Dept. of Commerce service here on T.>the internet Actual info. Great! T.>For the most part, you guys are right. Things really _are_ getting T.>better here. We told you so. We told you so. T.>In 1992, the US exported some $448 billion in "stuff" (the only thing T.>the figures said was that it excluded military exports. That seems to be the figure for "goods" which include manufactured goods, agricultural products, mining products, and petroleum products. T.>Well, anyway, it does concern me that it appears as though we are T.>siphoning large sums of money out of this country due to all the T.>excessive importing we do. The trade deficit is small relative to the economy as a whole although the balance of payments may be worse because of government payments overseas. In the last few years however, our economy has been doing relatively well as you discovered. Too bad about George. Duncan Frissell Congratulations! You are among the 50% of Americans capable of reading this message. The government designed, owned, and operated school system obviously failed in your case. --- WinQwk 2.0b#0 ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 19:36:34 PDT From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: Announcing a Second Bet, and Comments The betting window is closed. Nick Szabo was the first to respond and I have accepted his acceptance. Others can find their own betting partners. I'll respond to Derek Zahn's points, though: > I'll take that bet. ("toy" bets like $10 are in my opinion a much > better use of betting in a forum such as this than $1000 showdowns) Like I said above. > How about this: If sales are tied to ExI membership, we'll work out > a reasonable way of computing "fee for membership". If not, it's just The "ExI Membership required" situation is problematic. Nick counteroffered a complicated calculation, which I haven't yet deciphered. I favor my initial calculation. I don't think it'll make much of a difference, inasmuch as several things have to happen for the bet to be resolvable. If the bet gets that far, I'll let others (not me, not Nick) judge. Perhaps Robin Hanson. > Who will hold the money? I assume that no lurker will turn us in > to the FBI... Nick and I will hold our own money. Our reputations are far more valuble than $10, so renegging seems unlikely. And tying up the cash with a third party (who is as likely to "defect" as we are!!) when the bet may never be resolvable (e.g., the scheme may not be adopted as stated). > I think it's close, but 1) $2000 seems just a little out of reach > given the size and nature of the market; 2) I really would like to > see such a venture tried; I think it would be fascinating. It's > almost worth $10 to remind me to pay attention, and often people > perform better when they're being bet on. Exactly. Bets add piquancy, and force more careful considerations. ... > Here's why I don't think it'll make it: The current software, > especially the digest (which of course a mail junkie like me > doesn't get) really isn't that inconvenient. The new software > doesn't really give that many wonderful features... ::exclude Well, what better way to see how many people want the new software? Ray himself has asked this question. However, what people _say_ and what people _pay for_ are at odds, so to speak. Here's a second bet: I will bet $10 that if a new "Pledge Drive" is announced--this being effectively the alternative to charging for the List software or requiring ExI membership--then *less* money will be raised than was raised a year ago. Any takers? -"Timmy the Viking," oddsmaker and information arb -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 19:39:31 -0700 From: dasher@netcom.com (D. Anton Sherwood) Subject: American Letter Mail (not) thus spake Tim May: > Well, in fact there _is_ a law against competitors to the PS. > Private letter carrying is _banned_, period. Well, sort of. Way I heard, if anyone but a nonprofit organization delivers a letter, Uncle Sam claims a tax of 25c (presumably 29c now, it was a few years ago that I heard this from Gunderloy). *\\* Anton Ubi scriptum? ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1993 21:53:51 -0500 From: "Phil G. Fraering" Subject: Announcing a Second Bet, and Comments Tim, I have a third proposal re: pay-per-view and begathons: It appears that the list software is intended to have as one of its major features the addition of user-programmed "agents." Consider that when I use Perry's agents this could be interpreted that I have subscribed to Perry's Extropian service. Suppose I subscribe to Perry's Extropian Mailing List Clearinghouse. Probably I should pay money to Perry. Should Perry be obliged to pay money to ExI or whoever the appropriate entity is? This may be a third accounting scheme... comments, anyone? (Please! Comments?) pgf ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 19:55:57 -0700 From: dasher@netcom.com (D. Anton Sherwood) Subject: Galt Strike Holy shit. Andy Rooney just called for everyone with income over $100k/yr to go on strike in protest of soak-the-rich tax policy. *\\* Anton Ubi scriptum? ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 22:59:06 WET DST From: rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu (Ray) Subject: Galt Strike D. Anton Sherwood () writes: > > Holy shit. Andy Rooney just called for everyone with income over $100k/yr > to go on strike in protest of soak-the-rich tax policy. Looks like his career as a journalist/commentator is over - unless Rush Limbaugh gives him a job. -- Ray Cromwell | Engineering is the implementation of science; -- -- EE/Math Student | politics is the implementation of faith. -- -- rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu | - Zetetic Commentaries -- ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1993 23:06:23 -0400 (EDT) From: Cdt Pvt Dan Doughty Subject: Gang alerts Nick Szabo expressed his concerns at the latest gang trend, purchasing and displaying flashing blue and white lights on white sedans. I will personally add that you should not pull over. I was pulled over, I was in a bad neighborhood dropping off a friend, by a police officer. He was driving a white unmarked sedan with a dash light. He pulled me over, because I was a caucasian male, 18 years of age in a predominantly black neighborhood. I later faxed the police department regarding this affair. After a few days and another fax I found out the reason behind this problem. What had originally upset me was that the officer didn't identify himself(I was too freaked out to think of it), he searched me without my permission, and he asked me if my girlfriend was black. I found out later on that the racial question had to do with his attempt to find out if I knew anything about the area. As for the rest of it I was furnished no excuses by the Captain I talked with. I later received a letter from him that informed me that he had ordered that the practice of using unmarked cars in the area had been discontinued(except for special operations). Since then I have grown up a little and also have found out that I did not have to stop. You do not have to stop for an unmarked car. You can drive the speed limit all the way home or until a marked police car shows up to join the unmarked car. In fact I heartily encourage anyone in this situation to do so. This is my first post(everybody laugh at the newby) so I hope this fairly on target. Dan Doughty ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Sep 93 03:18:55 GMT From: whitaker@eternity.demon.co.uk (Russell Earl Whitaker) Subject: The Case Against Gun Control I posted, using "nosend": > THE CASE AGAINST GUN CONTROL > > DAVID BOTSFORD > [text elided] > > Message truncated because of excessive length. To get the entire article, > Send ::resend #93-9-963 to the list at the beginning of a message. > The total size of the message is 95591 bytes. > Hooray! It works! Congratulations, Ray and Harry, on some fine list software! I am most impressed. Russell Russell Earl Whitaker whitaker@eternity.demon.co.uk Communications Editor AMiX: RWhitaker EXTROPY: The Journal of Transhumanist Thought Board member, Extropy Institute (ExI) Co-organizer, 1st European Conference on Computers, Freedom and Privacy, London, 20 November 1993 ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 20:15:43 PDT From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May) Subject: "Timmy the Geek"....NOT! I am following up my own post: > > -"Timmy the Viking," oddsmaker and information arb > I want to explain why I did not use the obvious and euphonious "Timmy the Geek" pun, a parallel construction to the name of "Jimmy the Greek" (who was kicked off the air for saying some politically incorrect things). One of my pet peeves is when technical people--programmers, chip designers, physicists, etc.--fall into the trap of introducing themselves as "nerds," "geeks," and "dweebs." I never heard this when I was starting out...it seems to have taken off in popularity in the last ten years or so (possibly paralleling the nihilistic self-deprecations of the punks). Overheard at a party recently: Young woman: "So what is it you do?" Young man: "Oh, I'm just a computer geek." Young woman: "Oh," as she move on. Terms like "nerd" and "geek" are considered by society to be nearly the strongest social put-downs possible. Unlike the term "hacker," which has many resonances, several of them positive in tone, referring to oneself as a nerd or jerk or toad is undeniably a self put-down. I'm afraid these terms are not going to be "reclaimed" and made positive again (not that they ever _were_ positive terms, you understand). A nerd is a geek is a dweeb is a jerk. Anyway, call yourself whatever rings your bells, whatever moves your cursor. But I think it's "unextropian" to play into the hands of the ignorant by labeling oneself with such derogatory names. -Tim (This is not directed at "Future Nerd," who I'm sure chose his handle very carefully.) ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1993 23:30:05 -0400 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: Gang alerts Cdt Pvt Dan Doughty says: > Since then I have grown up a little and also have found out > that I did not have to stop. You do not have to stop for an > unmarked car. You can drive the speed limit all the way home or > until a marked police car shows up to join the unmarked car. Just one point -- the laws on this are non-uniform and may differ from state to state. Check in your state to find out what the rules on this are. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 23:30:21 EDT From: jkhastings@aol.com Subject: Retry flyer send Just in case the mail failure messages are a result of "cc:" on the wonderful AOL internet gateway, I'm sending this out again with a single recipient. America On-Line claims that by the end of this week, they'll have new computer capacity installed to handle the 100% increase in internet e-mail over the last 4 months. Sorry if you've seen this before, but just to be sure: ------------------------------------- ----------------- "State Evader" comes out of the Green Dragon Tavern BBS (213) 365-1132 pseudonym closet to shamelessly promote his upcoming speeches at the H.L. Mencken Forum and the Libertarian Party of CA Region 62 Los Angeles Westside: -------------------------------------------------- ---------- State Evader = J. Kent Hastings Assistant Director of the Agorist Institute, "Tec htics" columnist for the Tactics of the Movement of the Libertarian Left newsletter, internet cyph erpunk, and ham radio operator WA6ZFY. Both speeches will be on the topic: "Cyber Cash: Free Market Money Comes of Age" I will talk about untraceable digital cash, public-key cryptography, spre ad-spectrum radio, unmanned vehicles, and the latest government actions that threaten everyone's privacy: The Clipper/ Skipjack key escrow agents and the subpoenas served to the Austin Code Works and ViaCrypt for all PGP, RSA export info. -------------------------------------------------------------- Mencken info: (310) 289-3234 (reserve now!) L.P. info: (310) 477-6491 -------------------------- Mencken location: The Old Spaghetti Factory 5939 Sunset Blvd near Hollywood Freeway in L.A. Wednesday September 22, 1993 6:30 Libations, 7:00 Dinner, 8:00 Speaker, 10:00 Adjournment First time "virgins" reserved: $3 -------------------------------------------------- L.P. of CA Region 62 L.A. Westside: Chris's Italian Restaurant 10105 Venice Blvd. at Clarington Ave Thursday, September 23, 1993 Cocktails 6:30, Dinner 7:00, Talk 8:30 Not sure if admission is charged. ---------------------------------------------- Kent - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1993 23:54:18 -0400 From: ddf2@cornell.edu (David Friedman) Subject: ECON: Trade balance (was Some actual data!) This seems to have bounced the first time I sent it, so I am trying again. >Well, anyway, it does concern me that it appears as though we are ciphening >large sums of money out of this country due to all the excessive importing (Tony Hamilton) I have not noticed any substantial response to the implicit assumptions of this post, so will make one. My apologies if I am repeating what someone else has already said. The following material is lifted from my Price Theory text, and is an attempt to explain what trade deficits are about. TRADE BALANCES, EXCHANGE RATES, AND FOSSIL ECONOMICS In recent years, foreign trade has been a popular topic with newspaper writers and television commentators. The peculiar thing about the public discussion, which largely centers on the issue of trade deficits and American "competitiveness," is that most of it is based on ideas that have been obsolete for more than a hundred and fifty years-at least since David Ricardo discovered the principle of comparative advantage. It is rather as though discussions of the space program started out by assuming that the earth was sitting still in the middle of the universe, with the sun, the other planets, and the stars rotating around it. The discussion of trade earlier in this chapter provides the essential ideas necessary to understand why most of what you see on the subject in the media is nonsense. So far, we have examined those ideas in the context of two individuals or two nations, trading goods for goods; we have said nothing about issues such as exchange rates, money prices, or the balance of trade. In this section, I will try to show more clearly how the logic of comparative advantage works itself out in modern international trade. It is useful to start with the frequently made claim that the United States is not competitive in international trade, and that the reason is that our production costs, and thus the prices at which we try to sell our goods, are too high relative to the cost of goods abroad. A fundamental problem with this claim is that American costs are in dollars and Japanese costs are in yen. In order to compare them, we must first know how many yen you can get for a dollar-the exchange rate. Until we understand how the exchange rate is determined, we cannot say to what extent the high cost of an American car in Japan, measured in yen, is a result of the number of dollars it takes to produce a car, and to what extent it is a result of the number of yen it takes to buy a dollar. How is the exchange rate determined? Some people wish to trade dollars for yen; some wish to trade yen for dollars. The equilibrium price, as we will see in more detail in the next chapter, is the price at which buyers choose to buy as much as sellers choose to sell. If more yen are supplied than demanded, the price falls; if fewer, the price rises. When the two numbers are equal, the price is at its equilibrium level, just as on any other market. Why do people want to trade dollars for yen, or vice versa? To simplify the analysis, we will start with a situation where there are no capital flows-Japanese do not want to buy U.S. government debt, or U.S. land, or shares in U.S. corporations, nor do Americans want to buy similar assets in Japan. The only reason for Japanese to want dollars is in order to buy American goods; the only reason Americans want yen is to buy Japanese goods. Suppose that at some particular exchange rate, say 200 yen to the dollar, most goods are cheaper in Japan than in the United States-America is "not competitive." In that case lots of Americans will want to trade dollars for yen in order to buy Japanese goods and import them, but very few Japanese will want to sell yen for dollars, since practically nothing in America is worth buying. The supply of yen is much lower than the demand, so the price of yen goes up. Yen now trade for more dollars than before, and dollars for fewer yen. The fewer yen you get for a dollar, the more expensive Japanese goods are to Americans, since Americans have dollars and the Japanese are selling for yen. The more dollars you get for a yen, the less expensive American goods are to the Japanese. The exchange rate continues to move until prices are, on average, about the same in both countries-more precisely, until the quantity of dollars offered for sale by Americans equals the quantity that Japanese wish to buy. Since the only reason people in one country want the other country's money is to buy goods, that means that the dollar value of U.S. imports (the number of dollars we are selling for yen) is now the same as the dollar value of U.S. exports (the number of dollars they are buying with yen). Americans are now exporting those goods in which we have a comparative advantage (our production cost for those goods, relative to our production cost for other goods, is low compared to the corresponding ratio in Japan) and importing those goods in which the Japanese have a comparative advantage. One implication of this analysis is that trade automatically balances. If the quality of one country's goods improves or their cost falls, the result is not an imbalance of trade but a change in the exchange rate. Improved production makes a country richer, but it does not make it more competitive. This raises an obvious question: if trade automatically balances, how is that the United States has a trade deficit? To answer that question, we must drop the assumption that there are no capital flows, that the only reason Japanese want dollars is to buy United States goods. Suppose that, for some reason, the United States is an attractive place to invest. Foreigners-Japanese in our example-wish to acquire American assets: shares of stock, land, government bonds. To do so, they must have dollars. Demand for dollars on the dollar-yen market now consists in part of demand by Japanese who want dollars to buy American goods and in part of demand by Japanese who want them to buy land or stock. At the equilibrium exchange rate, American imports (supply of dollars) equal American exports plus Japanese investment (demand for dollars). America now has a trade deficit; our imports are more than our exports. Seen from the standpoint of a firm trying to export American goods, the reason for the trade deficit is that our costs are too high-we cannot export as much as we import. But that "reason" confuses a cause with an effect. The fact that our dollar costs are high compared to Japan's yen costs is a statement not about our costs but about the exchange rate. The real reason for the trade deficit is the capital inflow; indeed, the capital inflow and the trade deficit are simply two sides of an accounting identity. If the exchange rate were not at a level at which the United States imported more than it exported, there would be no surplus of dollars in Japanese hands with which to buy capital assets from Americans. One implication of this analysis is that terms such as "trade deficit" and "unfavorable balance of payments" are highly deceptive. There is nothing inherently bad about an inflow of capital. The United States had a capital inflow, and consequently an "unfavorable balance of payments," through most of the nineteenth century; we were building our canals and railroads largely with European money. Whether our present trade deficit should be viewed as a problem depends on what you think the reason for it is. If capital is flowing into the United States because foreigners think America is a safe and prosperous place to invest, then the trade deficit is no more a problem now than it was a hundred and fifty years ago. If capital is flowing into the United States because Americans prefer to live on borrowed money and let their children worry about the bill, then that is a problem; but the trade deficit is the symptom, not the disease. David Friedman Cornell Law School David Friedman Cornell Law School ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Sep 93 20:58:50 PDT From: szabo@netcom.com (Nick Szabo) Subject: Online services Phil Fraering: > Suppose I subscribe to Perry's Extropian Mailing List Clearinghouse. > Probably I should pay money to Perry. > > Should Perry be obliged to pay money to ExI or whoever the appropriate > entity is? It makes sense for him to pay the billing software provider. For example, "newbies" might pay-per-view to see Perry's Extropians FAQ, and the list software by playing intermediary and handling billing can take a cut. From the customer's point of view, I am unlikely to pay small amounts for various services, unless it's in Thornes, due to the inconvenience of paying bills. For example my forwarding just expired and it's a huge hassle contacting all my creditors saying that I've moved again. What a pain. Credit card, phone, auto finance, etc. companies need to learn how to do secure billing at my techbook.com or netcom.com address; I'd pay extra for the service. I'm even less likely to pay large amounts due to my small budget. And I'll repeat my concern about privacy: I don't like giving people dossiers on myself, for example a list of reading material I have purchased. (For the same reason I don't use Smart Shopper Cards, have stopped using credit cards to buy books, etc. Even better approaches can be obtained from Duncan Frissel for a price, but for my purposes cash is fine for just about every purchase). Also, these schemes are vulnerable to the pirating of pay-per-view info via anon remailer. You might be able to sell the same information only a few times, but it will decay pretty fast. Thus for example Perry may not be able to collect much for his FAQ. Fresh news, previously unreleased material, etc. still has some value for the first few sales (eg Clarinet, stock quotes, etc.) If billing has _very_ low transaction costs at both ends, thus small per-view costs, that will also minimize piracy. Another good reason to use Thornes. As a writer, I've found rates so poor and priting/publishing so inconvenient and full of compromise that it makes more sense to seek large audiences Usenet, eg 50,000+ readers of sci.space, rather than go through all the trouble of getting published for the typical pennies. This of course rehashes many of the issues with AMIX which is doing poorly for similar reasons. AMIX's advertising is also terrible, for example I've never seen ads or announcements for them on Usenet or in any of the popular net trade publications I peruse. As a writer I've tried to contact AMIX to get directions on how to publish, to no avail. Not that I really care very much -- I get a vastly larger audience for my writing on Usenet than on AMIX and the difference in pay is trivial. But if it was convenient I'd be happy to send them some stuff based on the many highly praised essays I've already written for exi-essay, sci.space, etc. Nick Szabo szabo@netcom.com ------------------------------ End of Extropians Digest V93 #262 *********************************