From extropians-request@extropy.org Tue Aug 31 01:02:11 1993 Return-Path: Received: from usc.edu by chaph.usc.edu (4.1/SMI-4.1+ucs-3.0) id AA12186; Tue, 31 Aug 93 01:02:09 PDT Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: from ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.ed (ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu) by usc.edu (4.1/SMI-3.0DEV3-USC+3.1) id AA27534; Tue, 31 Aug 93 01:01:58 PDT Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: by ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu id AA10039; Tue, 31 Aug 93 03:46:57 EDT Received: from news.panix.com by ude.tim.ia.ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu via TCP with SMTP id AA10034; Tue, 31 Aug 93 03:46:26 EDT Received: by news.panix.com id AA24532 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for exi-maillist@ung.gnu.ai.mit.edu); Tue, 31 Aug 1993 03:46:32 -0400 Date: Tue, 31 Aug 1993 03:46:32 -0400 Message-Id: <199308310746.AA24532@news.panix.com> To: Extropians@extropy.org From: Extropians@extropy.org Subject: Extropians Digest X-Extropian-Date: August 31, 373 P.N.O. [07:46:19 UTC] Reply-To: extropians@extropy.org Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Status: RO Extropians Digest Tue, 31 Aug 93 Volume 93 : Issue 242 Today's Topics: [1 msgs] AIT:Socialist computation [1 msgs] AIT:Socialist computation (forward from T.C.May) [1 msgs] Bits and Bytes Online v1 #8 [1 msgs] Nightly Market Report [1 msgs] Oceania? [1 msgs] SCIFI: Vernor Vinge in the news [1 msgs] TECH: HOME: Exulting [1 msgs] boom: how to buy a Buffalo Drum [1 msgs] Administrivia: No admin msg. Approximate Size: 51391 bytes. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 30 Aug 1993 20:18:49 -0400 (EDT) From: JAYMACHADO@delphi.com Subject: Bits and Bytes Online v1 #8 BBB III TTT SSS BBB Y Y TTT EEE SSS B B I T S B B Y Y T E S ONLINE EDITION BBB I T SSS AND BBB YYY T EEE SSS VOL 1, NUMBER 8 B B I T S B B Y T E S 8/30/93 BBB III T SSS BBB Y T EEE SSS ====================================================================== "There has been an alarming increase in the number of things you know absolutely nothing about." -Anon. ====================================================================== Falling Through The Cracks "This is a perfect example of how some things can fall through the cracks during a conversion." - Arthur Gillis, bank consultant and president of Computer Based Solutions, Inc. of New Orleans - commenting on an error in the conversion of Manufacturer's Hanover Trust's ATM machines to Chemical Bank's ATM system (MHT merged with Chemical). This error allowed customers withdrawing money from Chemical's ATM machines in May to withdraw a total of $357,000 without any money being debited from accounts. (SOURCE: Information Week, 8/23/93 pg. 14) ====================================================================== Big Business and Virtual Reality - Not Ready For Prime Time? [from an interview with Rich Gold, a researcher at Xerox Parc, in Information Week, 7/26/93, p. 46] Q: Why aren't they [big business] interested in virtual reality? A: The feeling at Parc is that tomorrow's secretary is not going to be wearing some sort of head-mounted display to type a letter. Q: You've been involved in virtual reality for a few years now. How would you characterize the state of the industry? A: Virtual reality is in about the same place today that artificial intelligence was, say, in the early 1970s. There was an initial burst of enthusiasm now it's becoming clear just how complex the whole area is, how complex our brains are. The world is so complex - a virtual cup, for example, is nothing like a real cup. People thought the challenge would be to render objects graphically, to make them look real, but it's not. The real challenge is to get them to act real. Q: Technological limitations aside, will people feel comfortable in a virtual world? A: It will happen over time, although it is a challenge. I've been at major companies involved in virtual reality and seen the engineers take off the goggles to look at the computer monitor in 2-D. That's partly because the virtual world isn't rich enough yet, partly due to a need to get one's bearings. Q: What separates virtual reality and ubiquitous computing? A: In a sense they're opposites. The core of ubiquitous computing is that you don't have to leave your normal world to compute. You build very small computers into many things - your desk, your phone, the devices you carry. You're still entering a computer world when you use them, but it's very transparent. The concept of ubiquitous computing is very hot here. One thing we're working on here is called the Tab, a very small pen-based computer that would replace Post-It notes. You could carry it and jot things on it, and it could use wireless technology to communicate with other devices. Q: Speaking of large corporations, when can we expect virtual reality to play a large role in that market? A: Corporations are where the money is, and if virtual reality can find a killer application, it will take off. But I don't see it happening soon. Molecular modeling, wind-flow simulations - these won't find a huge audience. But there are a lot of people working in this area, so who knows what will happen five years from now? ====================================================================== The Free Form Law of Information Information can exist in multiple forms (voice, video, text, images, etc.). Everyone assimilates information differently. End systems need to be able to adapt to every individual in order to maximize the information retained. (Frank J. Ricotta Jr., "The Six Immutable Laws of Information," Information Week, 7/19/93, p. 63) ====================================================================== Are You A Target? The revolution in telecommunications and computer database technology has dramatically improved the ability of business to access and sell personal information, but the move toward "audience targeting" has spurred a debate about how much consumer data should be available to direct mail companies. The direct mail industry favors the status quo, privacy advocates are pressing for restrictions, and the government is moving on the issue. (Lambeth Hochwald," The Privacy Keepers," Folio, 7/1/93, p. 62.) ====================================================================== Market Predictions Sales of new computer products will expand from $800 million this year to about $3.5 billion by 1998, according to a study by International Data Corp. The report predicted that 10 million organizers, personal digital assistants and electronic notepads would be sold over the next five years. (source: Tampa Tribune 7/25/93 B&F10, Newsbytes) According to a report from Market Vision, a market research group, less than 1% of the total market for multimedia has been tapped. They project that by 1997 multimedia will generate $9 billion in revenue for the computer industry and $15 billion in consumer-related products. The top applications will be video games, movies on demand, interactive movies, electronic photo albums, home shopping, personal data management and e-mail. Quality consumer titles will be priced below $50, making them attractive entertainment values. (SOURCE: Newsbytes 8/13/93) A study called "Online Services: 1993 Review, Trends & Forecast," says that although business and professional on-line services still represent 95 percent of the business (worth $4.5 billion), consumer services like Compuserve, Delphi, and America Online are showing the fastest growth, and are on there way to becoming billion dollar industries. North American is where the online action is, accounting for 56% of the world's total sales volume. (SOURCE: Newsbytes 8/11/93) ====================================================================== NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES: +LOW COST LASER PRINTER. The Okidata OL400e laser printer, expected to have a street price of $499, represents a new low price point for laser printers. The 300 dot-per-inch, 4 page-per-minute output, is upgradeable via memory add-ons and a built-in PCMCIA peripheral slot. (CONTACT: Okidata: 609/235-2600, fax 609/778-4184) +PC MODEMS: 28,800 BPS, ANYONE? Practical Peripherals announced it would begin shipping 28,800 bps modems under the emerging V. Fax standard in the fourth quarter of 1993. The V. Fax standard is not due to be ratified until mid-1994. In the meantime, prices continue to drop on 9600 and 14.4K modems, with Hayes and Boca Raton announcing price cuts. (SOURCE: Newsbytes 8/25/93) +THE UNCOPIER. Ricoh Co. has developed a technique for erasing photo- copied documents by lifting the toner off. The process reverses what happens when an image is photocopied -- it applies a chemical "peel- off" solution to the paper, then melts the toner and peels it off the page with a heated roller. The resulting page can then be used again to make more copies. Production should begin within two years. (SOURCE: Wall Street Journal 8/20/93 p. B2, Edupage) ====================================================================== Y.A.H.D.S.D. Yet another high density storage device was announced by a consortium of 8 Japanese firms and researchers at Tohuku University. The prototype, capable of storing 100X more data than conventional disks, uses clean room technology and a layerered pure cobalt-nickel-chrome hard disk to increase magnetic retention ability by 60%. The device will cost less than conventional drives to mass produce. According to Newsbytes, the private firms that participated in this project include "Nikko-Kyoseki, Nichiden-Anelba, Asahi Glass, Alps Electric, Kobe Seikosho, Hitachi Kinzoku, Fuji Electric, General Research Institute and HOYA." Just wanted to get those cool Japanese names in. (SOURCE: Newsbytes, 8/23/93) ====================================================================== DIGital Media "The use of desktop videoconferencing is going to be a one-on-one kind of thing - just one or two people at [different] sites working together on a document." (Nick Odowick, videoconferencing specialist, Northrup Corp., quoted in BYTE, September 1993, p. 80) = = = = = = = = = = = = = Fox News is using digital technology to rescue 55 million feet of decaying newsreel film archives, the equivalent of 5,000 feature- length movies. A lens scans the film and converts it to digital form for storage on recorders from Kodak and Sony. (SOURCE: New York Times 8/25/93 C2, Edupage) ====================================================================== Media Wars I Round and round it goes... and who gets to deliver the multimedia- flavored snack food to a waiting populace, nobody seems to know. Hi-tech bread and circuses, fun for the entire post-nuclear family. Here are some of the latest doings as a variety of of business interests jockey for position: Bell Atlantic got the judicial go-ahead to try and tap into a multi- million dollar market providing interactive services such as video games, home shopping and movies-on-demand. The court found unconstitutional a law barring telephone companies (telcos) from providing content, as opposed to merely acting as the plumbing the information comes through. Telephone companies say this provides them with the financial incentive to upgrade their systems to full fiber optic connectivity, while opponents say this will stifle innovation and slow the development of the third-party content providers on which the success of this new medium depends. * Continental Cablevision Inc., the third-largest cable TV company in the US, will offer Internet access via a PC/Modem hookup directly into their cable lines, bypassing local phone hookups while providing download speeds of up to 10 million bits per second. That'll do - for starters. Other multimedia services are planned, including TV quality video and hi-fi digital music feed. Internet hookup will be courtesy of Performance Systems International Inc. (PSI). Continental's networks are being expanded to supported LAN standards like Ethernet and emerging standards like FDDI (fiber distributed data interface). A special modem will be required for access, marketed by both PSI and local cable operators. Part of the agreement provides several cable channels dedicated to PSI's Internet customers in areas served by Continental. Upgrades to emerging standards are planned, and PSI hopes to sign on at least 50 other cable operators during 1994. The system will debut later this year in the Boston area. * The telcos have the upper hand financially, having easy access to vast pools of investment-grade money, while cable companies need to invest $20 billion to $40 billion on infrastructure upgrades for planned hi-tech offerings like telepresence and virtual dry cleaning. * Following in AMD's footsteps, IBM plans to create their own clone of Intel's microprocessor chips in an effort to regain their dominance of the personal-computer business. IBM is currently one of Intel's best customers. An added twist is that IBM's new product will be in direct competition with the PowerPC chip, a collaborative effort between IBM, Motorola and Apple. * IBM and Blockbuster Video Would like to sell you made while you wait CDs. Using satellites and computer technology, your selections would be downloaded from a database, and put on a CD for you. Color artwork and credits would be mailed to you separately. Every store would theoretically have access to the entire record catalog. You could be buying a movie, a music or audio video, or some computer software, the delivery method would be the same. * Of course the big financial news in this area is the recent $12.6 billion merger of AT&T and McCaw Cellular Communications. The nation's biggest long-distance network and biggest cellular carrier will soon be as one, in a strong position to provide seamless service to the mobile computing and wireless communications markets. This is a major shakeup for the telecom industry. The deal will take about a year to consummate and to receive regulatory approval. PDAs are expected to play a major part in this new entity's bid for success. AT&T owns controlling interest in the EO line of Personal Communicators. * Round and round it goes... and where it stops let's have a word from our sponsor. (SOURCES: Edupage, Newsbytes, Wall Street Journal, Philadelphia Inquirer, Atlanta Constitution, and my own feverish imagination) ====================================================================== V/R Superstar "The technological battlefield of the future will be adding layers between the user and the raw machine to make the interface as invisible as possible," said Pierluigi Zappacosta, president and founder of mouse pioneer Logitech, Inc. In Japan, he said, research under way aims at enabling computers to distinguish between "yes" and "no" from human brainwaves. ... "It's not so strange to think computers will allow us to make our next evolutionary step by expanding our brain power - we will become part of it and it part of us." A number of developers, Logitech included, remain convinced that virtual reality represents the next evolutionary step for the interface. While also limited to entertainment use so far, virtual reality is causing a great deal of enthusiasm as an interface, Zappacostas said. "Virtual reality has raised the interface to the level of superstar." (Stephen P. Klett, Jr., "Innovative input," ComputerWorld 8/23/93, p.28) ====================================================================== Social Computing A recent report from Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research, Inc. predicts a new computing architecture, called "social computing," which will emerge as new interactive technologies such as hand held computers, intelligent telephones and interactive TVs begin to collide with unmet needs in American society. This will bring about new relationships between producers and consumers as they are brought into direct contact each other electronically. The report states that this alone "reshuffles the competitive deck," and that suppliers failing to embrace the new architecture will be abandoned by "cable-ready" customers increasingly impatient with the frustrations of modern life, with counterintuitive interfaces and clumsy controllers. Consumers just want the goods delivered in a timely and entertaining manner - the time being NOW of course - and at a reasonable cost. The report acknowledges that activity in the marketplace resembled a "frenzied mating dance," but also foresees that some trends will emerge from the chaos: Within five years a new generation of TVs, telephones and hand held electronic devices, derivatives of PC hardware, will support two way communication. A variety of PDAs and specialized information devices will be manufactured for specific tasks (such as notetaking for classes, research work, reading, or letter writing). One device may perform a variety of functions previously done by several others. Wireless and traditional networks will offer "anywhere, anytime" communications. Commercial Information services and BBS systems will explode in number and move towards mainstream use as user friendly interfaces are developed. "The Market is driven by, 'Make my job easier, make me smarter faster and make me have more fun in the limited time that I have,'" said Carl Lehmann, director consumer media and electronics at BIS Strategic Decisions in Norwell, Mass. Lehman also said that a true mass market - defined as being in use in over 30% of US homes - is at least a decade away. (SOURCE: Gary H. Anthea, "New devices to propel technology into social fabric," ComputerWorld 8/23/93, p. 78) ====================================================================== Bits and Bytes Bookshelf Virtual Light by William Gibson [Bantam Spectra, 1993. 325 pp. $21.95 - William Gibson is kind of the guy who defined the cyberpunk genre with his award winning novel Neuromancer (1984). In that novel and the two that followed, Gibson created the Sprawl - an urban battlefield where "the street finds it's own use for things." A world of corporate intrigue and Japanese Biotech, a world where virtual reality, the worldnet and more are givens, a film noir world that Raymond Chandler would've felt at home in, yet strangely familiar. Since this was Gibson's first work (not counting his 1992 collaborative effort with Bruce Sterling called The Difference Engine) to be set outside the world he had so painstakingly imagineered, I wondered how he would escape the shadow of his well known 'trilogy'. I needn't have worried - Bill Gibson is a master craftsman, and Virtual Light is his best written novel yet. If this issue seems like it was thrown together at the last minute - it was, and you can thank William Gibson for that! I spent a good portion of my free time immersed in his book this week. Now I'm a fast reader, but some texts are designed to be savored. Mr. Gibson is a poet in cyberpunk's clothing. In a style that can be described as future-gothic, he spins a tale, hard-boiled and luminous, and it cuts closer to the bone than previous efforts since the future described is *almost* familiar - too close for comfort in some cases, which makes it harder to just laugh it off as "mere" science fiction. Set in the year 2005, life goes on pretty much like it does now, except that earthquakes have leveled Tokyo and San Francisco, and California is divided into two states. The coming world depression occurs more or less on schedule, and virtual reality and teleprescence are givens. The proliferation of cable TV has made possible a surge in strange new religious cults using televison as their pulpit, and offering hope in strange and twisted times. It's hard to describe in a few paragraphs what this book is a about. There is a plot here, about stolen virtual-reality glasses, and plenty of action, but Gibson's prose is the driving force here, immersing you in a universe at once familiar and disorienting, making you think about the present in new ways. This novel has some points to make, a moral agenda and quite a tale to tell. It looks as if William Gibson has found a new world to explore. Mobile Robots: Inspiration to Implementation by Anita Flynn and Joseph Jones [A.K. Peters, 1993. 349 pp. $39.95] - Based on research from the Mobot Lab at MIT, this appears to be a very good beginner's manual for the aspiring robot maker. It covers the design and construction of mobile robots, sensors, power supplies and intelligence systems. Construction techniques for two simple robots, TubeBot and Rug Warrior, are shown, and techniques are outlined for building more sophisticated devices. Appendixes contain schematics and interface electronics, a program of behaviors, and lists of parts suppliers, magazines, journals and BBSs devoted to robotics. ====================================================================== On The Newsstand BYTE magazine is always a good read for us techno-weenies, but the September issue is especially useful. The cover story on video computing showcases new machines from Apple and Silicon Graphics with extensive multimedia capabilities. The Silicon Graphics Indy has a direct-to-digital camera with microphone built in on top of the monitor! (Sony has something similar in the works) Other articles include a test drive of three of the new personal digital assistants (PDAs) now hitting the market, several articles on electronic publishing, and a roundup of the best buys in high-speed drives. Byte's coverage is always comprehensive without being exhaustive; their new layout and contents page make it easy to take in as much or as little as you need on a given subject. Look for George Jetson on the cover. ====================================================================== Ren and Stimpy on the Information Explosion REN: Stimpy, your wealth of ignorance astounds me! STIMPY: They don't call me stupid for nothing! (Ren and Stimpy can be seen on Nickleodeon Cable Channel Sundays at 11 AM. Not for the weak-hearted) ====================================================================== ### ADMINISTRIVIA ### IN THE FUTURE...Watch this space for some announcements. REQUEST FOR CONTRIBUTIONS. This one too. In the meantime, feel free. THANKS! Thanks to all of you who have unsubscribed, and are now receiving B&B through the elven magic of the Internet. "They say the world is getting smaller every day, but I'd hate to have to paint it." (Steven Wright) Thanks to Elizabeth Lane Lawley(via alt.quotations), for the anonymous quote that heads up the issue. Thanks to someone (whose name I misplaced) for sending in the section titled Falling Through the Cracks. ACCESS. B&B is available for downloading on America Online in their telecom files area, and in Compuserve's telecom forum library. Delphi access is forthright and forthcoming. INTERNET ANONYMOUS FTP SITES: ftp.dana.edu in /journals INTERNET GOPHER ACCESS. - gopher.law.cornell.edu in the Discussions and Listserv archives/ Teknoids directory - gopher.dana.edu in the Electronic Journals directory ====================================================================== BITS AND BYTES ONLINE, is the weekly electronic newsletter for high- tech dumpster divers. E-mail Subscriptions are available at no cost from slakmaster@aol.com or jmachado@pacs.pha.pa.us. Put "SUBSCRIBE in the subject header and your email address in the body of the message. If you work for "the rail" send a similar message to my internal emailbox. To unsubscribe, send a message with "UNSUBSCRIBE" in the subject header and your email address in the body. See you next week. ====================================================================== Jay Machado = (Copyleft 1993 Jay Machado) *unaltered* = 1529 Dogwood Drive = ELECTRONIC distribution of this file for = Cherry Hill, NJ 08003 = non-profit purposes is encouraged. = ph (eve) 609/795-0998 = In fact, I dare you *not* to. The editor = ======================== is solely responsible for the contents, = = but makes no claims or assurances implicit = Calm down. It's only = or otherwise regarding the validity of = ones and zeroes. = opinions expressed herein. Changes in the = = texture of the fabric are the result of = - Sam Kass = natural processes and should not be seen = = as defects in the pattern. = =============== end of Bits and Bytes Online V1, #8.================== ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Aug 1993 20:34:35 -0500 From: extr@jido.b30.ingr.com (Freeman Craig Presson) Subject: TECH: HOME: Exulting I just changed out my 2400 baud modem for a 14.4 with all of the V-dots and M-this-n-that. I know 14.4Kbaud isn't cutting edge any more, but after years of reading extropians from home at 2400, this looks like VR. I just _had_ to log on here even before putting the skins back on my box. Blazing right by ya, -- F_cP ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Aug 1993 22:04:16 -0400 From: tburns@gmuvax.gmu.edu (T. David Burns) Subject: Intellectual Property, ppl, etc. Robin Hanson wrote: >If the total net for A & B is positive, but A's net is negative, then >a deal can be struck as long as B offers to pay A enough extra cash. Now I see what you were talking about before, one time deals that include all future intellectual goods. But there's a moral hazard problem and a calculation problem. How do you know the publisher won't shirk after the deal is struck? And how does either the publisher or the customer arrive at a good price for all future publications? This is a very lumpy good! >I think anarchy intrinsically imagines such a fragmentation of power >that such collective action problems become simply insurmountable. Some extreme forms of anarchism take this view, but Friedman's variant of anarcho-capitalism is flexible enough to include corporations, industry associations, etc. >Anarchy may thus just lose on intellectual property, but it may also >prevent collective action by protection agencies to enslave their >customers. That is, it may prevent states. A reasonable tradeoff I say. But it also requires collective action (probably by an association of protection agencies) to put down mafias or rogue protection agencies. Tyler Cowen has written a clever critique of anarcho-capitalism along these lines (Cowen, Tyler. "Law as a Public Good: The Economics of Anarchy," Economics and Philosophy 8, (1992): 249-67). He argues that PAs can either be collectively too weak (mafia/rogue PA becomes government) or too strong (PAs become government). Sufficient power to discipline a rogue suffices also to become a government. I've written a reply, as yet unpublished. My idea is to claim that Cowen proves more than he wished, that his idea shows that anything short of embryonic totalitarianism is impossible. If proto-totalitarianism is the only possibility, then that is no criticism of anarcho-capitalism vis-a-vis limited government, since both are impossible. Then I argue for the possibility of collective self-constraint. Perhaps I should post it as an essay (nosend option? What has become of the essay list in the era of the new software?) when I finish revising it. Dan Sutter has a game theory paper forthcoming in JEBO. He sketches the game between a PA and an exiting customer, arguing that customers will not be allowed to exit. I criticize this idea in my paper also. But I noticed that critics of anarchy seem to get published more frequently, so I put in some shots at Friedman, Rothbard, etc. as well. Dave Burns ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Aug 1993 22:04:37 -0400 From: xiaozhou@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (Kate Xiao Zhou) Subject: AIT:Socialist computation (forward from T.C.May) I cc'd my AIT post to Tim May. Here is his reply. Dave Burns ----------snip, snip----------------------------- Dave, I think your points are right on target. Here are my comments, which I hope you'll forward to the Extropians list. > I think there is an affinity between AIT and the Mises/Hayek argument > against socialism. Could Mises's and Hayek's critique of socialist > calculation be put into AIT terms in a convincing fashion? You can't run a > 20 ton economy with a 2 pound planning board? Yes, I certainly believe the two are closely related. The "agents of bounded rationality" model (in which no assumptions about unlimited computing power or knowledge are made) is similar. Central planning fails for several reasons (looked at in an information-theoretic way, as opposed to the normal political/ideological way): 1. The planners do not--and cannot, practically--understand what all the various agents are doing, have planned, have desires for, etc. Just too much data, too little communication, etc. 2. The agents have conflicting goals, with no overarching model to resolve conflicts. (A mundane example: I want to move my belongings across town. In a market economy I simply offer to pay for this, and other agents can respond as they wish. In a fully centralized, planned economy, it is nearly impossible to do this, as my "need" will have to be evaluated, compared to other needs for "moving services," and ultimately rank-ordered. The likely outcome is that I will be told I can be scheduled in for a move in 1999, assuming the wheat harvest that year is good. Too many flows of useless information.) 3. Evolved systems (economies, genomes, strings, etc.) may have no simple rules, no simple reductionistic equations and laws. The "string" is just what it is, with almost no hope that simple rules (compressions) can be found. In markets, this is no big deal, as we don't care much about "why" someone wants to buy or sell, just what they'll pay. But in a system that is "scientifically rational" (as Marx thought his system was), every action must be justified. The moving example. From an AIT point of view, there often are not simple compressions, simpler representations, and so the Marxist planner is confounded. > I think the economy is very compressible - the role of institutions is to > make things into more predictable patterns, to reuse solutions in numerous > circumstances. But even if you could compress the essentials of the economy > down to an incompressible description, that object would still be beyond > human comprehension in its entirety. Humans could only > understand/manipulate local bits of it at a time - as in decentralized, > property oriented economies. As you note, both Hayek and von Mises made these kinds of points. Especially the "spontaneous order" section in Chapter 2 of Hayek's "Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume I, Rules and Order," University of Chicago Press, 1973. (Not in Kolmogorov-Chaitin terms, of course.) > The economy may be able to coordinate itself, but the human mind lacks the > capacity to consciously coordinate the economy. I suspect this is true, but I am leery of saying it is impossible to coordinate the economy, given large enough computers. (I'm not saying this is possible, or soon will be possible, or is desirable...I'm just saying it's far from proven.) Economies also have "logical depth," the AIT-related idea that Charles Bennett is most noted for (and which several of us discussed when the "AIT VirtSem was running a few months ago...I posted several of Bennett's papers and articles on this). The various agents are all interacting, evolving, and "deepening" the logical depth. A central planner who hopes to capture this complexity (AIT + logical depth) with a set of rules and formulas will fail. Applying modern information theory to markets is a good idea. I'd like to again recommend Cover and Thomas's "Elements of Information Theory." Tom Cover (rhymes with "clover") teaches at Stanford, and many of the B-School folks I've met at New Enterprise Forums there rave about his class, how it teaches them portfolio pricing and market theory from an information theory point of view. And the book devotes much space to the Kolmogorov and Chaitin formulation and results. -Tim May, who had a fantastic time at the Extropolooza Party yesterday and plans to resubscribe to Extropians soon. -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^756839 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. Note: I put time and money into writing this posting. I hope you enjoy it. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Aug 1993 22:05:02 -0400 From: xiaozhou@phoenix.Princeton.EDU (Kate Xiao Zhou) Subject: AIT:Socialist computation Tim May wrote: >Central planning fails for several reasons (looked at in an >information-theoretic way, as opposed to the normal >political/ideological way): > >1. The planners do not--and cannot, practically--understand what all >the various agents are doing, have planned, have desires for, etc. >Just too much data, too little communication, etc. > >2. The agents have conflicting goals, with no overarching model to >resolve conflicts. The Austrian argument explicitly does not address these two issue, primarily because they wished to make an internal critique of socialism, and socialists don't give a hoot about these two points. The true believer socialist (at least during the 20's - 30's when the debate took place) thought that the planning board would solve these problems easily. Agents' goals would be overridden, and a social ranking of goods would somehow be arrived at. Sheer coersion would make the planning board's whim a reality. Mises/Hayek claimed that even if this were so, without something like ownership and prices to guide decisionmakers in forming the structure of production, enormous waste would result (waste from the standpoint of the planning board). >> The economy may be able to coordinate itself, but the human mind lacks the >> capacity to consciously coordinate the economy. > >I suspect this is true, but I am leery of saying it is impossible to >coordinate the economy, given large enough computers. (I'm not saying >this is possible, or soon will be possible, or is desirable...I'm just >saying it's far from proven.) Well, this is what Mises and Hayek claimed to show. One of the strains of 'market socialism' that the debate spawned took exactly this tack, that the economy essentially was solving an enormous set of simultaneous equations, and that sufficient computer power would allow the planning board to solve the problem. Hayek's answer was that the equations could not be written (or the program) without distilling the producers' individual creativity, experience, local and temporary knowledge, judgement, and other tacit knowledge and skill. In Extropian terms, the planners have to create robust AI, then let the software agents buy, sell and own, with the outer world following their prices and production decisions. (Can software exploit hardware? ;) There are three possible socialist responses to the argument: 1) Ignore it (most did). 2) Give up Marx's claim that socialism would be more productive, efficient, and abundant (also quite popular). 3) Search for something that acts like a market but avoids individual ownership. (There are still people publishing about this. See Bardhan and Roemer, "Market Socialism: A Case for Rejuvenation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 6, Number 3, Summer 1992.) Actually, from 1940 to 1989 most people practiced 3a - pretend the Austrian argument is about equilibrium theory instead of reality, then point to nice, standard equilibrium models of market socialism. tburns@gmuvax.gmu.edu (T. David Burns) ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Aug 93 20:14:38 -0700 From: mcpherso@lumina.ucsd.edu (John McPherson) Subject: SCIFI: Vernor Vinge in the news I wrote: >FWIW, Vernor Vinge was featured in the San Diego Union Tribune >on Monday 23 Aug 93. [...] and a stylized illustration of Johanna >feeding a couple of the Tines. Vernor's picture and bio are >included [...] Dave Krieger wrote: | Could anyone with hardcopy of this feature be persuaded to key | it in and post it? I could be persuaded ... let's make a deal. (You're on the ExI editorial committee, right?) ExI still owes me either $21.90 or copies of the tapes: 1. "Spontaneous Orders and Future Evolution", and 2. "Recreational Drugs and Smart Drugs ...", which I ordered several months ago and still haven't received. I realize that Max had many things to do during the move, but I did remind him several times by email about this. Dave, could you help push this through? If someone at ExI either sends me the tapes or a refund, I'd be more than happy to key in Vernor's bio and to post it. Phil G. Fraering wrote: | ... Does anyone have the "illustration" John McPherson | mentioned in the article? Okay, I'll even throw in the illustration (artist is Tom Voss), and Vernor's picture. Do we have a deal? :-) (Perhap I should send it to someone with a scanner (Harry?) so that everyone on the list could have copies of the pictures) John McPherson mcpherso@lumina.ucsd.edu (619) 534-4717 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Life --> Individual --> Net Extropic --> Free --> Free Market Human Action Production Trade Economy ---------------------------------------------------------------------- hardcore signature virus: "As a juror in a Trial by Jury, you have the right, power and duty to acquit the defendant if you judge the law itself to be unjust." ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Aug 93 21:03:14 -0700 From: dasher@netcom.com (D. Anton Sherwood) Subject: Oceania? Gregory Crisp asks: > Wasn't that the name of the oppresive society (or one of the three at > least) in Orwell's _1984_? Isn't odd that the Libertarians would > choose a name that was associated not with liberty, but slavery? I asked Eric Klien about that. He said he liked the irony. *\\* Anton Ubi scriptum? ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Aug 93 21:04:04 -0700 From: dasher@netcom.com (D. Anton Sherwood) Subject: boom: how to buy a Buffalo Drum Since you asked-- I got my "Buffalo Drum" at Drum World, 969 Geneva Avenue (shortly to move around the corner to Mission Street), San Francisco; 415-334-75{59,78}. Drum World also sells real bodhrans, with skin heads, for twice the price. I called Drum World this morning and here is what I learned: Buffalo Drums are made in six radii: 22" (mine, $75), 16" ($55) down to 8". The maker is Remo, 12804 Raymer Street, North Hollywood, California 91605. I also saw my drum (same price) at PlaNetWeavers, 1573 Haight Street. Can't tell you more, as a machine answers their phone. Anton Sherwood DASher@netcom.com +1 415 267 0685 1800 Market St #207, San Francisco, California 94102 ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 31 Aug 93 00:10:03 EDT From: The Hawthorne Exchange Subject: Nightly Market Report The Hawthorne Exchange - HEx Nightly Market Report For more information on HEx, send email to HEx@sea.east.sun.com with the Subject info. News Summary as of: Tue Aug 31 00:10:03 EDT 1993 Newly Registered Reputations: (None) New Share Issues: (None) Share Splits: (None) Market Summary as of: Tue Aug 31 00:00:03 EDT 1993 Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding Market Value 1000 .20 .40 .20 10000 4000 800.00 110 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 175.00 150 .01 .10 .10 10000 1750 175.00 1E6 - .05 .02 10000 25 .50 1E9 .01 .05 - 10000 - - 200 .10 .20 .20 10000 4075 815.00 80 .01 - - 10000 - - 90 .01 - .10 10000 2000 200.00 ACS - .10 .05 10000 2724 136.20 AI .01 .50 .30 10000 1000 300.00 ALCOR - 2.25 2.00 10000 3173 6346.00 ALTINST - .25 .05 10000 4000 200.00 ANTON .25 .27 .26 10000 340 88.40 ARKU .27 .28 .27 10000 5001 1350.27 BIOPR .01 .10 .05 10000 3000 150.00 BLAIR 1.25 30.00 50.00 10000 25 1250.00 CYPHP - .08 .05 10000 1700 85.00 DC1000 - .10 - 10000 - - DC200 - .15 .10 10000 1500 150.00 DC7000 - .10 - 10000 - - DCFLOP - .10 - 10000 - - DEREK - .49 .49 100000 8220 4027.80 DRXLR .65 .85 .75 10000 4256 3192.00 DVDT .75 1.55 1.55 10000 9900 15345.00 E .58 .75 .75 10000 6787 5090.25 ESR - - - - - - EXI 1.54 3.20 3.00 10000 3025 9075.00 FAB - - - - - - FCP - 1.60 1.50 80000 16345 24517.50 GHG .02 .60 .60 10000 7180 4308.00 GOBEL .01 1.50 1.00 10000 767 767.00 GOD - .10 .10 10000 3000 300.00 H .76 .76 .76 30000 19290 14660.40 HAM .01 .50 .50 20000 15460 7730.00 HEINLN .01 .25 .05 10000 3100 155.00 HEX 100.00 101.00 100.00 10000 3263 326300.00 HFINN 1.50 6.00 6.00 10000 1005 6030.00 IMMFR .25 .80 .80 10000 1838 1470.40 JFREE .02 1.00 .10 10000 3000 300.00 JPP .26 .57 .30 10000 3500 1050.00 KARL .50 1.00 1.00 10000 500 500.00 LEARY .20 .50 .20 10000 1000 200.00 LEF .35 .50 .05 10000 3026 151.30 LEFTY .01 .45 .45 10000 3551 1597.95 LIST .40 10.00 .75 10000 5000 3750.00 LP - .30 .15 10000 4625 693.75 LSOFT .59 1.00 1.00 10000 7650 7650.00 LURKR - .01 - 100000 - - MARCR - - - - - - MED21 .01 .19 .02 10000 3400 68.00 MLINK - .01 .01 1000000 52602 526.02 MMORE .10 1.25 .10 10000 3000 300.00 MORE .75 1.25 1.25 10000 3160 3950.00 MWM .15 1.50 1.50 10000 1260 1890.00 N 20.00 25.00 25.00 10000 120 3000.00 NEWTON - .20 - 10000 - - NSS - .03 .01 10000 25 .25 OCEAN - .12 .10 10000 3100 310.00 P 22.50 25.00 25.00 1000000 94 2350.00 PETER - .01 1.00 10000000 600 600.00 PLANET .01 .02 .05 10000 1500 75.00 PPL .30 .65 .30 10000 1400 420.00 PRICE - 4.00 2.00 10000000 1410 2820.00 R .25 .70 .60 10000 6000 3600.00 RAND .05 .06 .05 10000 1500 75.00 RJC 2.00 999.00 .60 10000 5100 3060.00 ROMA - - - - - - RWHIT - - - - - - SGP - - - 10000 - - SHAWN .01 1.00 - 10000 - - SSI .22 .29 .22 10000 4700 1034.00 TCMAY .75 .82 .75 10000 4500 3375.00 TIM .50 2.00 .20 10000 1700 340.00 TRANS .01 .60 .02 10000 3011 60.22 VINGE .75 1.00 .50 10000 2000 1000.00 WILKEN 1.00 10.00 10.00 10000 101 1010.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 480946.21 ------------------------------ End of Extropians Digest V93 #242 *********************************