56 Message 56: From extropians-request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Thu Aug 5 21:14:20 1993 Return-Path: Received: from usc.edu by chaph.usc.edu (4.1/SMI-4.1+ucs-3.0) id AA09784; Thu, 5 Aug 93 21:14:18 PDT Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: from panix.com by usc.edu (4.1/SMI-3.0DEV3-USC+3.1) id AA06280; Thu, 5 Aug 93 21:14:10 PDT Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Received: by panix.com id AA24997 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for more@usc.edu); Fri, 6 Aug 1993 00:10:57 -0400 Date: Fri, 6 Aug 1993 00:10:57 -0400 Message-Id: <199308060410.AA24997@panix.com> To: Exi@panix.com From: Exi@panix.com Subject: Extropians Digest X-Extropian-Date: August 6, 373 P.N.O. [04:10:53 UTC] Reply-To: extropians@gnu.ai.mit.edu Errors-To: Extropians-Request@gnu.ai.mit.edu Status: RO Extropians Digest Fri, 6 Aug 93 Volume 93 : Issue 217 Today's Topics: [1 msgs] Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 [1 msgs] DIET: Alcoholic beverages [1 msgs] HUMOR: AI is HERE AT LAST! [1 msgs] INVEST: Club? [1 msgs] INVEST:mutual funds [2 msgs] INVEST:mutual funds [1 msgs] META: 3 requests [1 msgs] Perseid meteor shower [2 msgs] SEARLE: Axioms, Tautologies, etc [1 msgs] forwarded message <199308051917.AA28862@jido.b30.ingr.com> from Mail Delivery Subsystem[1 msgs] investing [3 msgs] investing [3 msgs] Administrivia: No admin msg. Approximate Size: 54208 bytes. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 08:33:20 -0700 From: freeman@maspar.com (Jay R. Freeman) Subject: Perseid meteor shower Freeman Craig Presson says: > Well, you know very well that > you can't paint the moon matte black or cover it with flock paper by > 8/11 [...] Yeah, drat, I can't get to that till the following weekend -- how does my calendar fill up so fast? Grump grump grump ... :-) ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 08:49:23 -0700 From: freeman@maspar.com (Jay R. Freeman) Subject: Perseid meteor shower > Can anyone tell me if this shower will be visable in the Southern > Hemisphere? I know this is unlikely - given Perseus is in the Northern > Hemisphere. Certainly. The southern hemisphere will have a generally more oblique view of the passing rocks, but there should be plenty even so. The name "Perseid" stems from the fact that the "radiant" of the shower -- the point in the sky from which the meteor trails appear to emanate -- is in Perseus. That's not to say that meteor trails appear only in that constellation. Even from a place where Perseus is below the horizon, you can expect to see meteors. A plot of their trails would show divergence from that point below the local horizon where Perseus was. > According to my copy of _Norton's Star Atlas_ the peak of meteor > activity for the Perseus shower should be on August 12th - not 10th. > Does this change each year? And if so how do we know when the peak of > greatest activity will occur? The peak activity of the shower comes when the Earth is at a specific point in its orbit, where the swarm is densest -- closest to the orbit of the comet from which the meteors originally derived. The *date* at which that peak occurs wobbles through the calendar from year to year by a day or so, depending on how long it's been since we have had a leap year, with its extra day. This is the same reason why, e.g., the equinoxes and solstices do not come on the same date each year. The orbit of the swarm will be perturbed slowly over the centuries, no doubt, but the leap-year-day effect is surely the dominant confusion as to when the shower occurs, in the short term. -- Jay Freeman ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Aug 1993 12:17:46 -0400 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: investing Tony Hamilton - FES ERG~ says: > > Fundamentals are the only tools Peter Lynch ever used. Somehow, the > > guy made billions for his clients, year in, year out, like clockwork. > > > > Most so called "studies" are horribly flawed. They don't take into > > account the fact that most investors don't really understand what they > > are buying. > > You keep missing my point. Fundamental tools are _not_ all your Mr. Lynch > has. He has his wits. And, there is a _big_ difference. I'll admit that drooling idiots can't even manage to add. So what? No one here is stupid -- at least not many of us. > You can program > computers with fundamental variables, such as your PE ratios, quarterly > report figures, and so forth and so on, and they _will_ do no better than > the dartboard. I'm not talking about using computers. You can't get a computer to recognise handwriting as well as a six year old can. I'm talking about just sitting down and studying the firms yourself. It works. Its not even that hard. Yeah, sometimes you are wrong -- but if you are careful, its not hard to be right a lot more of the time. > > > > Mutual funds will take investments of far far less. > > > > > > And thus are the only way to go for low-risk, sorta-decent returns. > > > > Not if you do decent research. > > My assumption in that statement was a lack of resources to do "decent > research". Don't forget, Perry, time is money. If I only have $3K to invest > (and given the things I'm doing with my money right now, that wouldn't be > too far off in my case!), I'm not going to spend 3 months researching > stocks so I can figure out what to do with it. You can get a decent mutual fund guide, pick a dozen candidates, write for information, and have enough to pick one, all with only maybe a few hours work. Its not hard. It really isn't. It doesn't require years of work. It doesn't require vast resources. > available to me which can maximize my profit from that $3,000, while > allowing me to spend that time making money in other ways. Of course, I > can guarantee 20-25% on any of my investments with no thought, thanks to > things like employee stock participation plans and such. I could probably > do as well on the market, but we're only talking $750 here, which isn't much > over, say, a 3-6 month period. Well, I'd say that thats pretty good profit, and if you would quit bitching about it and take it, you'd do even better next time when you had 3750 dollars, better the time after than when you had 4500, and better still a few years later when you had tens of thousands around. Compound interest, you know. Quit bitching and get with the program. > Like I said above, in order to get some > really good returns, I estimate I'd need more along the lines of $10-$30K to > have the flexibility needed, and to maximize my time spent managing that > money. I suspect from what you've said thus far that you will never have $20k to invest. You are unwilling to invest small amounts, unwilling to spend any time, unwilling to save. If you would simply save what you can and invest what you have, and quit complaining about the returns, you will quickly find you have plenty. If you never take the first steps, you will never complete your journey. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 9:49:52 PDT From: thamilto@pcocd2.intel.com (Tony Hamilton - FES ERG~) Subject: investing > > available to me which can maximize my profit from that $3,000, while > > allowing me to spend that time making money in other ways. Of course, I > > can guarantee 20-25% on any of my investments with no thought, thanks to > > things like employee stock participation plans and such. I could probably > > do as well on the market, but we're only talking $750 here, which isn't much > > over, say, a 3-6 month period. > > Well, I'd say that thats pretty good profit, and if you would quit > bitching about it and take it, you'd do even better next time when you > had 3750 dollars, better the time after than when you had 4500, and > better still a few years later when you had tens of thousands around. > Compound interest, you know. Quit bitching and get with the program. Sheesh, Perry, are you paying attention? My point is that I _do_ get with the program, _without_ needing to spend all my time researching stocks. Read the above paragraph again. The point is that many people can do this well without the need for serious investing. And Perry, I don't know what "a few years later" is to you, but compound interest doesn't make "tens of thousands" out of $3K in a few years at 20%. If I have $3K in the bank today, and all I have to show for it is $7500 in 5 years, I've done something terribly wrong (that is at 20% compounded annualy). That's another big myth about common investing, that it will make you lots of money. In this $3K example, I could have done far more with that money today than let it turn into $7.5K in 5 years. Heaven forbid I should make _less_ than 20%! > I suspect from what you've said thus far that you will never have $20k > to invest. You are unwilling to invest small amounts, unwilling to > spend any time, unwilling to save. If you would simply save what you > can and invest what you have, and quit complaining about the returns, > you will quickly find you have plenty. If you never take the first > steps, you will never complete your journey. Perry, this whole discussion is about investing in the stock market. We never made any assumption that you _must_ invest in stocks to make money. In fact, I am not unwilling to invest, I simply have better ways to leverage my time and money at this time. Why do you take my comments out of context and suddenly turn this discussion into one about my alleged inability to make money? 1st, we aren't talking about that, and 2nd, I have no idea how you gathered that I don't "have plenty". Stating that I may have no more than $3K to invest in stocks right now does nothing to indicate what my financial position is. And Perry, you keep asserting how easy it is to just do some simple research and find good buys in the stock market. It's all relative to how much time you spend, and how well you understand the data. But you can't get a good feel for how well you've done unless you compare the results with other alternatives. I can't tell you how many "intelligent" investors I know who do no better than mutual funds! And yet, they wasted all that time managing their money themselves. I won't argue cases, Perry, but I would argue that it is "so simple". Until you do a full statistical analysis, and analyze the results versus other known methods of increasing wealth, and take time and effort into account, you can't begin to make such assertions. Tony Hamilton thamilto@pcocd2.intel.com HAM on HEx ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 14:44:31 EDT From: Brian.Hawthorne@east.sun.com (Brian Holt Hawthorne - SunSelect Engineering) Subject: investing With all this discussion of investing, is anyone interested in starting an Extropians Investment Club? Boundlessly optimistic, Rowan ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 1993 12:49:51 -0600 (MDT) From: rcarter@nyx.cs.du.edu (Ron Carter) Subject: DIET: Alcoholic beverages Andrew I Cohen writes: >Recently many of us may have heard pop media outlets trumpetting >the benefits of moderate alcohol consumption. (60 minutes did >a piece on how the French have a lower level of coronary disease, >and this was pegged to their regular consumption of red wine.) >I wonder if there is any merit to those claims. Keep in mind that European diets vary greatly from most US diets; there have been findings that increased garlic, cinnamon etc. intake might have a positive effect on high blood pressure, etc. It might be hard to isolate only one aspect of a European diet that is the singular positive health "helper". >I usually have a glass of wine with dinner, but that's all. Alas -- >am I bringing myself to a premature grave? Is there any evidence >that alcohol consumption in such moderate quantities is foolish? The most I know is that my Internal Medicine MD, normally a very conservative person when it comes to medicine, has advised to me strongly to take my half an aspirin a day, as well a daily beer/ glass of red wine. I take the aspirin, but no alcohol, as I am trying watch caloric intake, and it makes me sluggish as well. -- Regards, Ron | rcarter@nyx.cs.du.edu | Denver, Colorado, USA ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 12:06:35 PDT From: thamilto@pcocd2.intel.com (Tony Hamilton - FES ERG~) Subject: investing > With all this discussion of investing, is anyone interested in starting > an Extropians Investment Club? Sounds like a good idea to me. Only, would the charter be to make money, or invest in extropian stocks? I'd like to see it as first and foremost a money-making club, and secondly a good place to at least keep an eye on the interesting extropian technologies that might prove to be good investments at some point. Sound right? Curious: never been part of an investment club. I know they provide a good forum for discussing investments, giving advice, and asking questions, but do these clubs actually manage group investments as well? If they do, how do they come to consensus on what to invest in, and how long to stay in? My normal style is to play it fairly fast and loose. I can't help but think that I may have a hard time giving money to club-managed investments. Anyone else have thoughts on that, or experience with these clubs? Tony thamilto@pcocd2.intel.com HAM on HEx ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Aug 1993 15:14:39 -0400 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: investing Brian Holt Hawthorne - SunSelect Engineering says: > With all this discussion of investing, is anyone interested in starting > an Extropians Investment Club? Might be a good idea. .pm ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Aug 93 15:32:21 -0400 From: Tim Freeman Subject: investing Brian Holt Hawthorne - SunSelect Engineering says: > With all this discussion of investing, is anyone interested in starting > an Extropians Investment Club? Would it have to be anything more than a mailing list? If not, then perhaps somebody should simply create the list and advertise it here. Tim ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 1993 15:19:34 -0500 From: extr@jido.b30.ingr.com (Freeman Craig Presson) Subject: forwarded message <199308051917.AA28862@jido.b30.ingr.com> from Mail Delivery Subsystem Tim, I Can't get this through to Genie, don't know how the list is doing it: ------- Start of forwarded message ------- ----- Unsent message follows ----- Received: by jido.b30.ingr.com (5.65c/1.921207) id AA26503; Wed, 4 Aug 1993 13:53:14 -0500 Date: Wed, 4 Aug 1993 13:53:14 -0500 From: extr (Freeman Craig Presson) Message-Id: <199308041853.AA26503@jido.b30.ingr.com> To: starr@genie.slhs.udel.edu Subject: forwarded message <199308041847.AA26488@jido.b30.ingr.com> from Mail Delivery Subsystem Reply-To: extropy@jido.b30.ingr.com (Freeman Craig Presson) Your SMTP process is a smartass: vrfy starr 250 Nice address ;-) - ------- Start of forwarded message ------- >From MAILER-DAEMON Tue Aug 3 13:26:44 1993 Return-Path: Received: by jido.b30.ingr.com (5.65c/1.921207) id AA26488; Wed, 4 Aug 1993 13:47:52 -0500 Message-Id: <199308041847.AA26488@jido.b30.ingr.com> From: MAILER-DAEMON (Mail Delivery Subsystem) To: extr Subject: Returned mail: Cannot send message for 1 day Date: Wed, 4 Aug 1993 13:47:52 -0500 ----- Transcript of session follows ----- While talking to genie.slhs.udel.edu: >>> MAIL From: <<< 451 Nameserver timeout during parsing ----- Unsent message follows ----- Received: by jido.b30.ingr.com (5.65c/1.921207) id AA24807; Tue, 3 Aug 1993 13:26:44 -0500 Date: Tue, 3 Aug 1993 13:26:44 -0500 From: extr (Craig Presson) Message-Id: <199308031826.AA24807@jido.b30.ingr.com> To: starr@genie.slhs.udel.edu In-Reply-To: <9308011009.AA04165@churchy.gnu.ai.mit.edu> Subject: Public School Failures, Myths, and Perestroika Reply-To: extropy@jido.b30.ingr.com (Freeman Craig Presson) Great speech. My experience with magnet schools vs. neighborhood public schools in Huntsville confirms this -- the slightest whiff of competition makes them run leaner and meaner and get serious about teaching the students and demonstrating to the parents that they have done so. -- cP ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 16:28:51 WET DST From: rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu (Ray) Subject: SEARLE: Axioms, Tautologies, etc starr@genie.slhs.udel.edu () writes: > > From: Arkuat > Subject: SEARLE: Axioms vs. Tautologies > > >I can't stand it anymore. > > > >Rand's rants to the contrary, "Existence exists" is not and cannot be an > >axiom. It is a tautology, a statement with null information content. > > For all the hostility to tautologies I have seen, I have seen not one single > distinction between an axiom and a tautology, nor any criticism of > tautologies that doesn't entail the fallacy of self-exclusion. An axiom is a statement believed to be true because of it's intrinsic merit, a tautology is a circular statement ("a sofa is a couch") > >When Euclid wrote the Elements, he did not include among his axioms such > >statements as "a point is a point", "lines are linear", or "a horse is a > >horse, of course, of course". > > Actually, that's exactly what I remember axioms being like when I was > learning them in school. I thought they were too obvious to be of any > significance whatsoever, and the proofs that followed from them seemed just > as obvious. So, I didn't pay much attention to them, and failed the tests. You didn't take enough math. When you get to higher math, the proofs are a far cry from "obvious". Fermat's Last Theorem is a prime example but there are thousands of other examples. Axioms do not say "X is X". > This, and imaginary numbers, soured me on mathematics. I once proposed to > turn in imaginary homework on imaginary numbers, to which my teacher responded > with the counter-offer of giving me an imaginary grade :-). Imaginary numbers are not really an axiom but a definition (in terms of other axioms). The imaginary number 'i' simply means "let this symbol represent the quantity square_root(-1)" There is no more faith involved than if I said "let x equal 2" > >|> I must conclude that Craig has failed to read where I have made clear > >|> some of the things he asks me for, such as an example of a metaphysical > >|> axiom which is testable: existence exists. > > > >This statement is not testable, as Ray has already pointed out. > > It most certainly is, as I have already pointed out. So is Mises' action > axiom: human action is purposeful behavior. So is Descartes' "cogito" > argument: Cogito, ergo sum, which translates badly to: "I think, therefore > I am." The test is whether they can be denied without their presupposition. To be testable, a thing must be falsifiable. Existence exists isn't physically testable. In math, axioms aren't "testable" but they can be proven logically inconsistent which is what you propose above. (e.g. to assume NOT(existence exists) is logically inconcistent, likewise NOT(I think, therefore I am)) All this proves is that Descartes and Mises's axioms are logical nonsense or that they convey zero information (they are truisms) > >The creationist/fundie tie-in is simply that they are always looking > >for ways to discredit science in general. "It's only a theory", they > >harp. If that's true, then their "theory" is just as good as anyone's > >and should be taught in schools, etc. > > As Rauch points out in "Kindly Inquisitors," this is only if all theories > are equal. They aren't. Craig got it wrong. The tie in of Beckman with American Spectator is two fold. 1) Beckman is a _radical_ advocate of Nuclear Power (I'm on his side). 2) Creationists require two ideas to be falsified before their theory can even get off the ground. a) that nuclear decay rates were faster in the past (so we can't uranium date the earth to 4 billion years) b) that the speed of light was a lot faster about 4000 years ago (so we can't look through telescopes to prove that the universe started 14 billion years ago) If you read alt.origins you will see so-called "scientific creationists" arguing these things all the time. -- Ray Cromwell | Engineering is the implementation of science; -- -- EE/Math Student | politics is the implementation of faith. -- -- rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu | - Zetetic Commentaries -- ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 15:33:09 MDT From: morgan@arc.ab.ca (Sean Morgan) Subject: META: 3 requests (I TRIED to do this off-line, but no dice) 1) How (exactly) do I get ::help? I have tried a couple of times before, and got nothing. One request went out the list (sorry). 2) Is it possible to get the digest articles sorted in the same order as the table of contents. That would make it easier to find an interesting article, read threads, etc. 3) Can we get the HEx nightly updates to drop the "***" lines. They make my digest reader (Easy View 2.33 on a Mac) choke, breaking the update up into 3 separate messages. -----------------+---------------+---------------------------------- Sean Morgan | Integrated | ALBERTA 3rd Flr, 6815 - 8 St NE 403/297-2628 | Manufacturing | RESEARCH Calgary, AB, Canada morgan@arc.ab.ca | Program | COUNCIL T2E 7H7 ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 14:43:37 PDT From: martino@gomez.Jpl.Nasa.Gov (Martin R. Olah) Subject: INVEST:mutual funds I would like to know if Perry or others would find it in their heart to mention the name of a few of these super-funds. I am not familiar with Paul Jones,or if he manages a mutual fund. I currently have some money with 20th Century, Janus and a few others. I have stuck to no-loads with a $1,000 minimum so far, but am willing to change if there are returns to justify it. I also like funds that have done well over 10 or even 20 years, since I prefer not to skip around too much. Also what are anyones thoughts on health care stocks? I got in last year and needless to say have taken quite a hit, but maybe the market over- reacted and this is actually a good time to get in. I guess the most important factor would be *which kind* of health care stocks. Thanks. -O Martin ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 18:20:50 WET DST From: rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu (Ray) Subject: HUMOR: AI is HERE AT LAST! There is a RACTER-like AI program running around in the sci.* groups (mostly sci.math, sci.physics, sci.space) with the handle S.H. It's pretty funny because it's actually a poor immitation of racter. It responds to posts including quotes, underling certain phases with ^^^^, etc. Still, some people are actually fooled by it and try to flame it. -- Ray Cromwell | Engineering is the implementation of science; -- -- EE/Math Student | politics is the implementation of faith. -- -- rjc@gnu.ai.mit.edu | - Zetetic Commentaries -- ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 15:20:58 PDT From: thamilto@pcocd2.intel.com (Tony Hamilton - FES ERG~) Subject: INVEST:mutual funds > too much. Also what are anyones thoughts on health care stocks? I got in last > year and needless to say have taken quite a hit, but maybe the market over- > reacted and this is actually a good time to get in. I guess the most important > factor would be *which kind* of health care stocks. Thanks. Martin, If the budget bill passes through congress, my guess is health care stocks will take another dive. This is because they will be hit hard by the drastic cuts in Medicare - which, by the way, are actually scaled down quite a bit from the Republican budget proposal. I'm no expert, but was watching CNN on this one. They explained that when Medicare gets cut, meaning less of it is available, generally the medical profession eats it. This is because the insurance companies keep the pressure on them to keep costs down, since the insurance industry is highly competitive. Certainly some of the cost is passed on to paying customers, but its still bad news for the medical industry. Like I said, though, I'm no expert, so if someone else has a different take on this, speak up. Tony Hamilton thamilto@pcocd2.intel.com HAM on HEx ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 18:27:31 EDT From: Brian.Hawthorne@east.sun.com (Brian Holt Hawthorne - SunSelect Engineering) Subject: INVEST: Club? > Would it have to be anything more than a mailing list? If not, then > perhaps somebody should simply create the list and advertise it here. I assumed simply a mailing list. If we decide to do more, we can later. In fact, If people want a separate list, I've got the software all set up to do it. Otherwise, we could just do it on the Extropians list with appropriate subject lines. So, should I turn on the mailing list, or should we do it here. I lean towards the former. Rowan ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Aug 1993 18:30:57 -0400 From: "Perry E. Metzger" Subject: INVEST:mutual funds Martin R. Olah says: > I would like to know if Perry or others would find it in their heart > to mention the name of a few of these super-funds. I am not familiar > with Paul Jones, or if he manages a mutual fund. You can't invest in any of the funds managed by the really big guys. Paul Tudor Jones has not accepted any new money in years. (He also used to take 30% of the profits as his management fee -- nasty, but worth it.) Many of the other really potent funds are available only to very big investors. However, you can manage to invest in pretty good no-load mutual funds even with only $1000. > I currently have some money with 20th Century, Janus and a few > others. I have stuck to no-loads with a $1,000 minimum so far, but > am willing to change if there are returns to justify it. Well, there is nothing wrong with sticking to no-loads with 1k minimum investments -- they are a fairly good way to go if you don't have a bundle to invest and you want to get decent returns. I suggest that you do wider research on funds, though. Myself, right now I'm looking into putting more of my money in funds that invest overseas, since many big equities managers are trying to cut their exposure to the U.S. market. > Also what are anyones thoughts on health care stocks? I got in last > year and needless to say have taken quite a hit, but maybe the > market over- reacted and this is actually a good time to get in. I'd say that anything anywhere near an industry Hillary Rodham has any potential to touch is a speculative investment. There are likely to be big bucks to be made in them -- and the risk is more than I'm willing to take. Perry ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Aug 93 18:05:51 PDT From: GRAPS@galileo.arc.nasa.gov Subject: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 Hello extropi-oids: It's been quite a while since I posted to this list.. Maybe next time my funding runs out, I shouldn't accept every job that comes along and, perhaps, just work at one???? Anyway... At the Extropian Bay Area lunch today, a discussion popped up about Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (aka 1993e). Some of the e-folks had just recently heard about about this comet, while others hadn't heard about it yet. WHERE HAVE YOUR MINDS BEEN??!! Wrapped up in a computer monitor or something? :) :) So, I, your friendly extropian astronomer, am here to educate you about this delightful, explosive (if you like explosions or such- Keith H are you out there?), once-in-a-lifetime celestial event. --------------------------------------------------------------------- "Jupiter is Offering a Crash Course in Comets" (many excerpts from ref 1) Astronomers will be aiming virtually every telescope in the world towards Jupiter in late-July next year to see what happens when big chunks of a shattered comet punch into the backside of Jupiter at almost 40 miles/sec, exploding with energy equivalent to almost a billion megatons of TNT. For the first time since the invention of the telescope, a comet is hitting a planet. Next year's rare, lucky glimpse of the "before," "during," and "after" should provide an unprecendented opportunity to test theories on, among other things, the nature of comets, the nature of Jupiter, how planetary rings form, how craters form, and the dynamics of high-megaton atmospheric explosions. It's as close to a controlled laboratory experiment on a planetary scale as we're likely to come. The comet (perhaps 12 miles in diameter) almost hit the planet Jupiter on its last pass a year ago, David Levy (one of the discoverers) says. At that time, the planet's powerful gravitational forces ripped it into a swarm of mini-comets enveloped in an enormous cloud of dust and rubble. By the time Earth telescopes spotted it in March, the comet pieces had spread out like a string of pearls (also referred to as a "nuclear train"). Scientists counted 17 major pieces then, but further studies have revealed 21. Uncertainty about whether a collision will occur has all but disappeared in recent weeks, says Donald Yeomans of NASA's JPL. "There is almost no question that major chunks will hit Jupiter." Calculations by Yeomans and colleague Paul Chodas (see my information from them below) indicate a probability of more than 99 percent- a virtual dead certainty in astronomical terms. But Yeomans hedges. "Mother Nature sometimes thumbs her nose at us." In fact scientists emphasize that there are so many unknowns in their calculations that they can only make educated guesses about what's going to happen next July. Unfortunately, we won't be able to directly see the event from Earth. Astronomers calculate that the comet train will strike the far side of Jupiter on July 21-23, 1994, causing repeated flashes over two or three days. Jupiter completes one rotation every 10 hours, so the impact zone will soon spin into view and they/we can inspect the results. The impacts probably will, for a time, "crater" Jupiter's turbulent atmosphere as if it were a a hard surface, causing some of its previously unseen innards to "well up." The shock could linger in the form of a another semi-permanent storm similar to Jupiter's trademark, the Great Red Spot. The impacts could create a series of fireballs emerging from deep within Jupiter's clouds and blowing out the top, the largest perhaps 400 miles across- a mere dot on the vast face of Jupiter- with a flash "as bright as the surface of the sun," and a rain of debris leaving glowing trails all around. Scientists have estimated that the plume caused by the explosion will be 10-100 times brighter than the rest of the surface of Jupiter. If the bulls-eye were on the side facing Earth, Levy says, it would be visible in the daylight without a telescope. Astronomers will indirectly observe the event by measuring reflected light that bounces off Jupiter's nearest moons, Io and Europa. The effects may be visible in backyard telescopes and even binoculars. The visibility of the fireworks depends in part on the size and composition of the incoming objects. Astronomers are hoping to directly observe the event by using several space probes. The partially crippled Galileo will arrive at Jupiter 16 months too late to see the event up-close, but it should be able to observe it from-a-distance. Calculations from Paul Chodas show that Galileo will be able to see the impact on Jupiter's terminator. Gene Shoemaker (the other discoverer) is urging NASA to power up instruments aboard Voyager 2, now cruising beyond the planets. It could record the flash even across such a distance. --------------------------------------------------------------------- For all of you hard-core techies, who maybe want to see the numbers, I located the following "bulletins". The astronomers that I work with in my building are really excited about this event, and so everyone has graphs of impact simulations and other calculations relating to the event posted everywhere. --------------------------------------------------------------------- >From IAU Circular No 5800 and 5801 (ref 2), "Almost 200 precise positions of this comet have now been reported (mostly from CCD images by S. Nakano and T. Kobayashi in Japan and by E. Meyer, E. Obermair and H. Raab in Austria). These observations are mainly of the the center of the nuclear train, and this point continues to be the most relevant for orbit computations. The presumed encounter with Jupiter that created the train occurred during the first half of July 1992. The comet(s) has a period of roughly 2 years. ... more than half of the nuclear train could collide with Jupiter, over an interval approaching 3 days. Preliminary computations by A. Carusi, Rome University, show that surviving nuclei are likely to remain as satellites of Jupiter or be thrown closer to the sun on short-period heliocentric orbits (depending on which side of Jupiter they pass)." [A mini-solar system in the making!!!!] --------------------------------------------------------------------- >From Don Yeomans and Paul Chodas, JPL, (ref 3) "The following jovicentric impact circumstances for comet 1993e apply: Time of entry = 1994 July 20.4995 Atmospheric entry at Jupiter latitude = -46 degrees Atmospheric entry defined as 69,000 km at this latitude Relative velocity at entry = 60.5 km/s Sun-comet-Jupiter angle at entry = 66 degrees (night side) Orbital eccentricity at entry = 0.99877 Jovicentric periapses = 33,761 km Orbital inclination with respect to Jupiter equator = 84 degrees" --------------------------------------------------------------------- ref 1) July 19-25, 1993 The Washington Post National Weekly Edition Page 38. ref 2) May 22, 1993 Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams, Int'l Astronomical Union Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge MA 02138 ref 3) June 1, 1993 in NASAMail to D. Morrison, Space Sciences Division, NASA-Ames. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Amara Graps NASA-Ames Research Center MS 245-5 Moffett Field, CA 94035 graps@gal.arc.nasa.gov ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Aug 93 00:10:04 EDT From: The Hawthorne Exchange Subject: Nightly Market Report The Hawthorne Exchange - HEx Nightly Market Report For more information on HEx, send email to HEx@sea.east.sun.com with the Subject info. News Summary as of: Fri Aug 6 00:10:03 EDT 1993 Newly Registered Reputations: (None) New Share Issues: (None) Share Splits: (None) Market Summary as of: Fri Aug 6 00:00:02 EDT 1993 Total Shares Symbol Bid Ask Last Issued Outstanding Market Value 1000 .10 .20 .10 10000 2000 200.00 110 .01 .10 - 10000 - - 150 .01 .10 - 10000 - - 1E6 .02 .10 - 10000 - - 1E9 .01 .10 - 10000 - - 200 .10 .20 .10 10000 2000 200.00 80 .01 .10 - 10000 - - 90 .01 .20 .10 10000 2000 200.00 ACS .10 .15 .50 10000 1124 562.00 AI .01 .50 .20 10000 1000 200.00 ALCOR 2.00 3.80 2.00 10000 3031 6062.00 ALTINST - .15 .15 10000 2500 375.00 ANTON - 1.00 - 10000 - - ARKU - .15 - 10000 - - BIOPR .01 .20 .10 10000 1500 150.00 BLAIR .01 30.00 50.00 10000 25 1250.00 CYPHP .15 .17 .17 10000 100 17.00 DEREK - .42 1.00 100000 8220 8220.00 DRXLR 1.00 2.00 2.00 10000 2246 4492.00 DVDT .75 1.55 1.63 10000 9900 16137.00 E .58 .70 .60 10000 5487 3292.20 ESR - - - - - - EXI 1.00 3.00 1.30 10000 3025 3932.50 FAB - - - - - - FCP - 1.00 - 80000 4320 - GHG .01 .30 .01 10000 6755 67.55 GOBEL .01 .30 1.00 10000 767 767.00 GOD .10 .20 .10 10000 1000 100.00 H .76 .76 - 30000 18750 - HAM .01 .30 .20 10000 5000 1000.00 HEINLN .01 .25 - 10000 - - HEX 100.00 125.00 100.00 10000 3368 336800.00 HFINN 2.00 10.00 .75 10000 1005 753.75 IMMFR .25 .80 .49 10000 1401 686.49 JFREE .01 .15 .10 10000 3000 300.00 JPP .25 .26 .25 10000 2510 627.50 LEARY .01 .20 .20 10000 100 20.00 LEF .01 .15 .30 10000 1526 457.80 LEFTY .01 .45 .30 10000 3051 915.30 LIST .40 .75 .50 10000 5000 2500.00 LP .01 .09 - 10000 - - LSOFT .58 .60 .58 10000 7050 4089.00 LURKR .06 .07 - 100000 - - MARCR - - - - - - MED21 .01 .08 - 10000 - - MLINK - .09 .02 1000000 2602 52.04 MMORE - .10 - 10000 - - MORE .75 1.25 .75 10000 3000 2250.00 MWM .15 .15 1.50 10000 1260 1890.00 N 20.00 25.00 25.00 10000 98 2450.00 NEWTON - .20 - 10000 - - NSS .01 .05 - 10000 - - OCEAN .11 .12 .10 10000 1500 150.00 P 20.00 25.00 25.00 1000000 66 1650.00 PETER - .01 1.00 10000000 600 600.00 PLANET .01 .10 .05 10000 1500 75.00 PPL .11 .25 .10 10000 400 40.00 PRICE - 4.00 2.00 10000000 1410 2820.00 R .49 2.80 .99 10000 5100 5049.00 RAND - .06 - 10000 - - RJC 1.00 999.00 .60 10000 5100 3060.00 ROMA - - - - - - RWHIT - - - - - - SGP - - - - - - SHAWN .01 1.00 - 10000 - - SSI - .05 - 10000 - - TCMAY .40 .63 .75 10000 4000 3000.00 TIM 1.00 2.00 1.00 10000 100 100.00 TRANS .01 .05 .40 10000 1511 604.40 VINGE .20 .50 .20 10000 1000 200.00 WILKEN 1.00 10.00 10.00 10000 101 1010.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 419374.53 ------------------------------ End of Extropians Digest V93 #217 ********************************* &