Re: poly: World Economic History

Hal writes:
>> Doubling Time Dominant Period DT factor WP factor
>> ------------- ------------------------- --------- ---------
>> 500,000 yrs 1M B.C. to ~300K B.C. ? 9
>> 140,000 yrs. ~300K B.C. to 5000 B.C. 4 6
>> 860 yrs. 5000 B.C. to 1700 155 196
>> 58 yrs. 1700 to 1900 15 11
>> 15 yrs. 1900 to 2000 4 37
>
>Can we identify these periods with technological innovations?
>
>1. Descent of man
>2. Discovery of fire
>3. Beginning of agriculture / writing / arithmetic / cities / civilization
>4. Industrial revolution / renaissance
>5. ???
>
>I'm just guessing on these, mostly. 5000 B.C. is often cited as the date
>of the start of civilization. 1700 is a little late for the renaissance
>but a little early for the industrial revolution.
>
>The curious one is the 1900 date. What happened then?

These dates are when the new term can to dominate the sum. But they
influence the sum before that date. So the first major sign of the new
mode should show up before those dates.

Curiously, scientific publications and other measures of science had
been doubling at the recent rate of every 15 years for several centuries
before 1900.

>This does not give us much reason to expect a new transition in the next
>few decades, although of course we have other reasons to expect new
>technologies to make a difference.

And also other reasons to expect them not to make a difference.
Received on Sun Jun 7 02:58:01 1998