Re: poly: Re: Why interest rates may stay low

In a message dated 3/23/98 2:15:41 PM, hal@rain.org wrote:

>Robin writes:
>> We seem to be confusing each other. It seems we both agree that a large
>> number of projects with huge returns later should induce huge investment
>> now in rights need for those later returns (like near-solar mass).
>> So the lack of much investment in this now (far below anything that would
>> "test this upper limit of investment supply") suggests investors don't
>> anticipate such huge future returns. From which I conclude that such
>> huge future returns are unlikley. What do you conclude?
>
>Isn't that like the economist joke:
>
>| Two economists are walking down the street. One sees a $100 bill lying
>| on the sidewalk, and says so.
>|
>| "Obviously not," says the other. "If there were, someone would have
>| picked it up!"

Well, that's a cute joke, but Robin had a serious question that deserves an
answer. There are a *lot* of smart/rich/persuasive/powerful people on this
planet, yet almost negligible investment on these hypothetical super-projects.
When so many capable people decide these investments would be a dud, you
have to consider the possiblility that they're right.
Received on Mon Mar 23 22:29:57 1998