From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Wed Dec 29 1999 - 18:37:17 MST
Max More wrote:
>
> thanks to computer and communications technology. The Singularitarians
> among us may be expecting these gains to keep accelerating. While I don't
> see that, I am pretty bullish on the tech sector for 2000.
Speaking as a Singularitarian, I don't expect anything one way or the
other. The Singularity is about the rise of greater-than-human
intelligence. After Moravec tried to calculate when AI would match the
human brain using Moore's Law, people started thinking that the
Singularity had something to do with the graphs. It doesn't. The
Singularity happens whenever AI or IA become possible. The graphs are
only tools for predicting that.
Speaking personally, I've been expecting a stock market crash any day
now since 1994. I still do.
> Can we expect to see a continued growth in productivity (needed to keep
> stock prices rising and economic growth high and rising without inflation)
> due to information technology in the next year, five years, and ten to
> twenty years? Many of us think that economic growth will really accelerate
> if nanotech and AI come about together. But what about the period *before*
> those two drivers hit full force? Thoughts?
Yes. You'll see them in the new millennium.
--
sentience@pobox.com Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
http://pobox.com/~sentience/beyond.html
Typing in Dvorak Programming with Patterns Writing in gender-neutral
Voting for Libertarians Heading for Singularity There Is A Better Way
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 15:06:13 MST