From: Philip Witham (p.j.witham@ieee.org)
Date: Thu Nov 11 1999 - 16:10:14 MST
>Here's a question for our aerospace professionals (and space groupies like
>me): How quickly after the development of a general purpose programmable
>assembler could a completely "de novo space program" be developed, and how
>many (or rather, how few) people with what expertise would be necessary to do
>it?
As long as we are fantasizing about this, let's define the rules properly.
You said:
>(i.e. the ability to make diamonoid structures of arbitrary size and
>complexity and thence the ability to extract basic elementary chemicals
>pretty easily),
and,
>Given state-of-the art CAD circa, say, 2015
And I'd add that said CAD was written and tested ahead of time for use with
your general purpose assembler. And that you can obtain the use of same without
government/military/Luddite mob oversight. And you have a launch site far from
control by any hostile government (for example, far from the U.S. government).
And, assuming that pre-general-purpose-assembler nanotech does not make your question
a moot point,
My answer is: one person. Not very long to get to orbit, months, but a long time to
self-sufficiency. More people, much less time, to a point. I think a networked
bunch of space enthusiasts like us could do a very respectable job in a few years,
given fatal motivation. You are asking for complete independence from earth? Much harder
than partial independence.
Maybe a good question would be: what would be the optimum number of people for the
project? I think about 200, and they all get to go up as soon as possible. A genetically, socially stable village.
Goals in order might be:
-Transport to earth orbit
-low orbit space station, initially a few folks (and an assembler: station grows
and morphs)
-Transport up an enormous mass of raw material and propellants, far more than
immediately needed, then: material independence from earth.
-Trans lunar transport and lunar landing
-Lunar mining (and another outpost, more people)
-Efficient launch of mass from lunar surface (mechanical, forget that silly
mass driver idea)
-Completely closed cycle life support, with only propellants and carbon supplied
from stores
-Large space colony(s), send up a whole lot of us like-minded folk
-Asteroid and Mars mining and colonization, sustainable independence from earth
It's a lot to contemplate, and it won't come easily. As has been mentioned in other
replies so far, pre-design would help a lot, but I guess that wouldn't start in earnest until the assembler appears immanent. And there is always a lot to learn about reality.
On the other hand, if the goal is to get-the-hell-out-of-here ASAP without being
detected, I imagine:
A secret development project among a handful of fanatics begins, to design and
simulate the whole shebang before launching anything. Some time passes. Then, with
no warning, from the depths of the ocean rises a 100,000,000KG launch vehicle
carrying 200 colonists and a whole lot of raw material. A luck has it, only one
ocean going ship is destroyed by the sound footprint (10 KM from the launch site in
mid-ocean). 2,000,000KG makes it to earth escape velocity on a Hohman transfer orbit
to mars or the asteroids. The Earth's military goes on high alert and prepair to
launch until they realize the ship isn't coming back. On the way there, the
colonists figure out how to survive.
-PW
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