From: Mike Linksvayer (ml@justintime.com)
Date: Sun Sep 05 1999 - 02:10:10 MDT
"Robert J. Bradbury" wrote:
> Interestingly enough, I think one of my comments, perhaps
> on the aging piece, drew a query from someone in Japan
> asking "who are you?". I gave them a short bio, and
> asked some questions, but the reply indicated that they
> could not reply in English.
I read an article recently which spurred me to think that
Japan "could be, should be" a hotbed of longevity research:
"IN ECLIPSE -- A special report.; Empty Isles Are Signs
Japan's Sun Might Dim" from the August 1, 1999 New York Times.
Unfortunately this article doesn't seem to be available online
for free anymore.
The gist of the article was that Japan is aging very quickly
and will experience sharp declines in population during the
next century. The result being that Japan's relative importance
in the world will decline. The existence of once bustling
islands that now have only a few elderly residents (that
the government nevertheless spends huge sums on to ensure
ongoing regular ferry service and all modern conveniences
as a matter of honor and obligation) was used to introduce
this point.
The article considered three things the Japanese could do
to prevent this loss of stature and cope with the problems
of a shrinking workfoce supporting a growing elderly
population:
* Have more kids. It isn't happening, even with monetary
incentives.
* Make the remaining workforce more productive. There's
no good reason to believe that the Japanese workforce
will increase its productivity any more rapidly than
the rest of the world.
* Liberalize immigration. No way that's going to happen.
Apparently Chinese and Korean residents are considered
highly undesirable.
So, two further options present themselves and support my
contention that Japan "could be, should be" a hotbed of
longevity research:
* Keep people youthful longer so they can work longer --
vitality extension.
* Keep people alive and youthful much longer so they can
work longer and make the projected population decline
less precipitous -- lifespan extension.
These approaches would solve the problem of having a shrinking
workforce to support a growing pool of retirees. However,
(don't tell the Japanese) it may not do much to address the
"problem" of declining international importance, as life
extension technologies should benefit people everywhere.
However, (do tell the Japanese) if they take the lead in
developing these technologies, Japanese companies will
profit tremendously and Japan will have no worries about
declining economic importance for a long time to come.
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