From: Robin Hanson (hanson@econ.berkeley.edu)
Date: Fri Jun 25 1999 - 12:13:28 MDT
Hal Finney wrote:
>> the world *is* in fact rather different, but doesn't look radically
>> different exactly because most people don't *want* it to look much
>> different. This contrasts with the goal of SF authors/readers to portray
>> a shockingly different future, and explains why the real future looks
>> more familiar than the old SF future.
>
>This is an unusual perspective and not intuitively obvious. Are there
>examples of innovations which have been shoehorned into an inherently
>unnatural form for the sake of familiarity? Maybe things like the
>mouse-and-windows computer interface? Although you could argue that
>the old command lines were more familiar to typewriter users...
The human element is such a large part of most technological systems that
I'm not sure what the "natural" human-ignoring form of a system would be.
My mind boggles.
>> the world economy ... is now about four times larger than in 1969.
>
>... U.S. GDP has doubled from 1969-1995. ... Probably in third world
>countries the changes since 1969 are more obvious.
Yes! The period of a century ago which we recall as being one of fast
technological change was a period when the US was growing faster than
the rest of the world.
Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar FAX: 510-643-8614
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 510-643-1884
after 8/99: Assist. Prof. Economics, George Mason Univ.
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