From: Joe Jenkins (joe_jenkins@yahoo.com)
Date: Thu Mar 18 1999 - 13:05:58 MST
---"Michael S. Lorrey" <retroman@together.net> wrote:
>
> Joe Jenkins wrote:
>
> > Consider the "ultimate generation gap" - that gap between mortality
> > and immortality. My best conservative guess for defining this gap
is
> > as follows:
> >
> > Birth Date
> > <1957 "mortal generation"
> > 1957 - 1967 "The real generation X" (grey/fuzzy area)
> > >1967 "Immortal generation"
> >
> > note: this is for the overall population, early adaptors of
technology
> > and cryonics subscribers are exempt.
>
> I am guessing that this is based on average life expectancy. Note
that > the
> current average includes people of all ages.
Really, I thought we had some recent discussion on this list that
future medical technology was factored in and people with different
ages had different life expectancies. So much for my memory :-)
[snip]
> It all depends on when you expect life extension technology to become
> available. I'm thinking the next ten to fifteen years. We won't need
> nanotech to become immortal, IMHO, just good genetic engineering based
> health care. Come down with a flu one week, you are immortal the
next. We
> will need nanotech to revive those cryo'ed, but those still living
under
> retirement age today should make it, for the most part.
So, what I call "the real generation X" is just above retirement age
as per your forecast. That would mean most cryonics subscribers are
mitigating a much smaller perceived risk than I had assumed.
Following your forecast, I am 25 years ahead of "the real generation
X". That means it is unlikely that I'll reach an age where it is
difficult to procure life insurance to fund a needed cryonics
suspension.
If I were to face near term anticipated death because of some freak
disease that just happened to be incurable between now and then, I
could use my 401K money to set up suspension arrangements and let my
family have the half a mil insurance that is subsidized by my company.
That pretty much covers most of the risks that can be mitigated if you
also consider accidents that cause brain damage or that occur in
situations where suspensions cannot begin in a reasonable time. Add
to that murder or suspected foul play incidents that will require
autopsy and were pretty much at a 99% chance that my death will not
require prearranged cryonics. Why would I want to spend $500 a year
starting now for that measly 1%. A lot of people on this list put
cryonics at 50% or less probability of success. I put it at 90%, but
don't subscribe for these other reasons. I take calculated risks with
my life every day. In this case, I sacrifice that 1% for my $500
techno gadget every year.
Chances are that I will sign up eventually, but it won't be for that
1%. It won't be charity either. It will be to support the research
needed to benefit the situation described above where I could have
reached into my 401K savings.
Joe Jenkins
joe_jenkins@yahoo.com
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