From: mark@unicorn.com
Date: Tue Mar 09 1999 - 05:00:22 MST
Jason Jones [frjones@swbell.net] wrote:
>I'm SORRY I can't give you a source other than the discovery channel, but
>from what I had seen on that show the major evedience for global warming
>was a 1 degree F increase in the world's total average temperature.Anyone
>seen anything like this?
There are numerous problems with this 'evidence'. Firstly, even if you
accept the surface temperature data, then the temperature today is only
a fraction of a degree higher than it was at the beginning of the 19th
century! This is why most of the pro-warming arguments discuss temperature
changes from the mid-19th century to today, because there was a major drop
in temperature around 1820, and that significantly inflates their figures.
Secondly, various people have shown problems with the surface temperature
data. One temperature measuring station used in many studies showed a one
degree change... but when someone actually went there and looked at the
station they discovered that over the last couple of decades bushes had
grown around it blocking out a cold wind; compensating for the wind effect
removed the increase. The other stations are not evenly distributed, and
many are near airports or in cities where the temperature will be rather
higher than average. The global measurements by satellite show almost no
change in the last few decades.
So the basic global warming issues are:
1. What is the 'correct' temperature for the planet?
We don't know.
2. Is the temperature changing?
We don't know.
3. If so, are the changes the result of human action, or are they
natural variations?
We don't know, though the evidence seems to show much larger natural changes
than anything supposedly caused by human activity.
4. If so, will this have a worse effect on us than closing down industrial
civilization?
We don't know, but I find it strange that many of the pro-warming folks
love to trumpet the glory of Gaia, their wonderful self-regulating global
organism, yet then turn around and tell us that actually Gaia isn't
wonderful enough to handle a small increase in carbon dioxide.
Given another twenty years we may know the answers to many of these questions,
but today we just don't have enough data and rely on dubious computer models
instead.
Mark
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