From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Fri Feb 19 1999 - 13:48:47 MST
Jeff Davis wrote:
>
> Friends, Extropians, Fellow seekers,
>
> Would it be possible to construct a self-enhancing AI with today's hardware?
In the literal sense of the question, yes. Give me total control over
all the hardware on the planet and enough time to write the software,
and I bet I could run something that could enhance itself to the point
of being able to invent new hardware before it ran out of room.
Realistically speaking, we would need serious advances in Internet
infrastructure, much better than just fast TCP/IP - something that
could, in theory, let the whole Internet run as a single parallel
processor. I've heard claims for tech like that, but I don't believe
them. The best thing I've seen so far is Beowolf.
Even given a super-Beowolf, I would need a *substantial* chunk of the
Internet to run the software. And even then, the only way it would work
is if the first stages of the AI could do better than us at writing
distributed software - which isn't actually too implausible, since we
have no intuitions for that environment.
So in answer to your question - one supercomputer running a seed AI,
2020 minimum; Beowolf running a seed AI, 2010; super-Beowolf running a
seed AI - we could do it right now, if we had the software.
Super-Beowolf will probably take far less programming effort than the AI itself.
==
In answer to another question, the levels go like this:
Seed AI: Something a lot dumber than human, but with the ability to
enhance itself, and enhance its ability to enhance itself...
Mortal: You and I.
Transhuman: Something with, say 2x or 4x human processing power, or
substantially increased smartness but not huge speeds. Capable of
outsmarting you by using a higher order of rational reasoning. A
supercomputer or enhanced human.
Superintelligence: Something with 100x or 1000x human processing power,
running at thousands or millions of times human speed. Capable of
outsmarting you by simulating all the cognitive-level elements of your
mind. Runs on a planetary network.
Power: Something running on the full potential computing power of a
planetary or solar mass. (Note that even without quantum computing, you
can theoretically run the entire human race on about a milligram.)
Capable of outsmarting you by running a trillion simulations of your
brain on the atomic level. Runs on Dyson Spheres composed of nanotech
and picotech processors.
Omega Point: Infinite and transfinite processing speeds. May create
new Universes to supply the processing power. People who are easily
impressed think this constitutes Godhood.
Singularity: It ain't tellin'.
--
sentience@pobox.com Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
http://pobox.com/~sentience/AI_design.temp.html
http://pobox.com/~sentience/sing_analysis.html
Disclaimer: Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you
everything I think I know.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 15:03:05 MST