From: Ken Kittlitz (ken@audesi.com)
Date: Fri Feb 12 1999 - 10:04:57 MST
At 10:44 AM 2/11/99 -0800, Max More wrote:
[Regarding Y2K...]
>If we can agree on some specific claim about unrest in the US and some of
>these other points, I'm willing to bet money against the doomsayer view.
I can't resist putting in a plug for the Foresight Exchange, an online
implementation of Robin Hanson's Idea Futures concept. The exchange has a
number of claims related to the consequences of Y2K; thus, interested
parties can bet (trade) based on what they think those consequences are
going to be. The exchange doesn't use real money, but it's possible to
track who has traded on which claim at what price, for reputation purposes.
Some of the Y2K claims:
Claim bid/ask/lst Short description URL
-------------------------------------------------------
Y2Kdth 56/ 60/ 60 >=200 deaths caused by Y2K bug
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Y2Kdth
Y2Kstk 51/ 64/ 60 Y2K closes US Stock trading
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Y2Kstk
Y2Knuc 75/ 88/ 85 Y2K % Nuke Plants operational
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Y2Knuc
Of course, the prices may be somewhat biased: someone who really expects
dire Y2K consequences will figure that the exchange is unlikely to be
operational next year, meaning that they wouldn't be able to collect on
their winning predictions.
------
Ken Kittlitz Administrator, Foresight Exchange
AudeSi Technologies Inc. http://www.ideosphere.com
http://www.audesi.com personal: http://www.wendigo.com
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