From: mark@unicorn.com
Date: Thu Feb 11 1999 - 06:04:14 MST
Since we're back on the subject, here are my predictions of what we're up
against:
1. Government systems failure: A large fraction of these systems are not
going to work, and they will not be able to just hire people to replace
computers as others have suggested. If they were to admit defeat and
switch back to a paper system now, that might work. But not on Jan 1st
2000.
2. Riots: these are pretty much inevitable around the millenium anyway,
and the bugs will just make them worse. Lack of government handouts due
to broken computer systems will make them doubly worse. I won't be
surprised to see troops patrolling the streets by the end of the year.
3. Bank runs: these are pretty much inevitable late this year. The
government can shut down the banks to stop them, but that will make
matters worse. They're already printing out more money and that's
not going to solve the problem. Fractional reserve banking is in deep
doodoo, and people's faith in it will drop even further when the Euro
conversion problems become more widely known (e.g. a Dutch bank just
admitted that it's failing to process about 10% of all Euro transactions,
and claim that most other banks are the same). If they can't get that
right, they're unlikely to get their Y2K fixes right either.
4. Stock market collapse: this is pretty much inevitable late this
year. How low it will go is another question, but I don't think the
bottom will completely drop out of the market because many will take
advantage of the situation to buy up shares at low, low prices.
5. Foreign problems: most of this message is about the US, Canada and
Europe; outside of those areas, well, Russia is doomed, Japan is
doomed, China is in big trouble, and so are many other Asian countries.
That's a big problem for the rest of us, because we rely on a lot of
imports from Asia: see Sun's recent comments on Asian Y2K problems and
their implications for computer manufacture. The semiconductor industry
itself is extremely reliant on Asian suppliers.
I won't even mention oil; the Middle East is almost as doomed as Asia.
Luckily Canada and Europe have plenty of oil and the US could bring
new wells on-line if it has time to do so.
6. War: with many US military systems out of action and most of the US
armed forces trying to keep 'order' at home, North Korea, Iraq and other
coutries will take advantage of it to settle old scores.
7. Civil war: given the general level of chaos, various groups
are going to take advantage of it to settle old scores; I wouldn't want
to be in DC in Jan 2000. If martial law lasts too long it will turn into
a civil war in the US and possibly the more extreme European states.
8. Big business collapse: at least a few big organisations are going to
collapse, either because they're just broken or they're no longer able
to make enough money producing non-essential items to survive. Hundreds
of thousands or millions of new unemployed will just add to the general
problems.
So even if 90% of Western computer systems are actually fixed -- and I
expect they will be in the private sector -- we're still in for a hell
of a time. I'd be surprised if we're back to anything close to 'normal'
life before the middle of next year.
Mark
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