From: Alexander 'Sasha' Chislenko (sasha1@netcom.com)
Date: Fri Jan 22 1999 - 00:44:48 MST
In the State of the Union Address, Clinton suggested that
some quantitative projections:
- number of elderly Americans set to double by 2030
- Social Security trust fund will be exhausted by 2032
- total budget surplus in the next 15 years will be 4 trillion dollars
- the proposed investment plan of 60% of the budget surplus will keep
Social Security sound for 55 years.
These figures should be based on careful models of economic growth,
inflation rates, longevity, and other related factors for the next
15-30-55 years.
I wonder if these estimates are published.
I would be particularly interested in seeing the estimates for
the error margins in these forecasts... (If this is at least an
attempt to produce serious statistics, the data of this scale and
importance should be backed up _very_ carefully).
Is the U.S. government, the ultimated legal entity in the country,
responsible to any degree for its statements? I.e., would anybody
there suffer if these projections appear to be complete bogus?
I would find it more likely that there will be no budget surplus
in the next 15 years, the next 30 years will see dramatic changes
in demographic patterns because of changes in global economy and
health-related sciences, and that Social Security, U.S.A, and
American dollar will not exist in their current form in 55 years.
I am not sure humans will exist in their current form at that time,
either, but being a responsible person, I would not make forecasts
with a large margin of error :-)
Apparently, at least one of these two forecasts is seriously
delusionary. Which one(s), do you think? And more importantly:
does it matter?
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Alexander Chislenko <http://www.lucifer.com/~sasha/home.html>
<sasha1@netcom.com> <sasha@media.mit.edu>
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