From: Michael Lorrey (mike@lorrey.com)
Date: Sat Dec 12 1998 - 15:00:14 MST
Damien Broderick wrote:
> At 04:35 PM 12/11/98 -0500, Han Huang wrote:
>
> >1 in 160 --
> >the average US risk of being a victim of violent crime in 1997. Using
> >the 1 in 160 figure, over the next 50 years, one has a 27% chance of
> >being a victim of a violent crime.
>
> Hardly (as Mike would say). Unless there's a rule in the USA that people
> who've been assaulted once are left alone thereafter, your chances remain
> 1/160 to the end of time (all demographics being equal).
Yes, and that is still an average. If you narrow down by passive features
like your demographics, geographics, and existing personal habits, you can
get the odds to near astronomical levels. Just not having a criminal record
reduces your chances at least four fold, if not more. Not living within x
miles of an urban center is another good move, as is having a decent income.
Neophility does have an evolutionary disadvantage here, a neophilic is more
likely to get into dangerous situations than someone more habitual and
conservative. The only times I have been a crime victim was when I was in a
big city (San Fransisco, Seattle, Burlington).
Mike Lorrey
PS (Damien): You really enjoy goofing on me, don't you?
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