Re: QUICKIE PREDICTION NEEDED

From: Doug Bailey (transhuman@mindspring.com)
Date: Fri Oct 23 1998 - 20:00:49 MDT


Kathryn Aegis wrote:

>By the year 3000, it goes almost without saying that most humans will
>have the means and opportunity to evolve to the transhuman stage. My
>question--will we have seen the first posthuman(s) by then? How many?
>In what form?

Lately, I've grown less fond of the word "human". It complicates the
situation.
Transhuman. Posthuman. People have such a hard time wrestling with the
definition of "human" or coming to grips with (or communicating) our growing
technological prowess and the "human" condition. It is much easier if you
view
our current form as nothing more than what the random engines of emergent
complexity created for us. Our identity can not be reduced below that of
conscious information processing systems, i.e., our "minds".

The trend is to increase our information processing characteristics. The
abilities
to acquire, process, retain, synthesize, utilize and synergize information
and
the information that emerges from those activities will continue to be
increased.
Concomitant with these objectives will be increased consciousness. By the
year 3000, we'll have abandoned the biological prostheses we currently
inhabit
for forms more amenable to the aforementioned objectives. Most of us will be
weak SI entities embarking on the self-modification path I've described in
an earlier
posting. Individual identity may become a relic as intelligent entities
converge on
the same state. This assumes that the number of possible states for higher
intelligent
entities decreases as intelligence increases.

To supplement my remarks concerning the term "human", it can be argued that
there are posthumans and transhumans among us already. Whether you look at
the corporate entities of scientist and computer, human and prosthesis
(artificial
organs, limbs, etc.), increased longevity, etc. Many people living today
would be
viewed as transhuman by our ancestors. Some would probably be viewed as
posthuman
or nonhuman. I think it is less confusing to treat ourselves as I've
described above.
Admittedly, it would be even more difficult to explain to the general public
how we should
not think of ourselves as human versus trying to convince them to become
transhuman.

Hope this helps,
Doug Bailey
doug.bailey@ey.com
transhuman@mindspring.com



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