From: Paul Hughes (planetp@aci.net)
Date: Sat Sep 26 1998 - 18:08:13 MDT
John Clark wrote:
> I don't agree with Robin, I think the singularity will happen, however
> if I was arguing Robin's case I know what I'd say, change is slowing
> down. Even in technologically advanced parts of the world the change
in
> daily life between 1899 and 1949 was greater than between 1949 and
> 1999.
I agree with almost all of your points. There is no single invention or
scientific discovery since 1949 that has been as transformative as any
of the
other ones you mentioned prior to 1949. I would like to add to your
list the
very disappointing progress made towards wide-spread space exploration,
development and migration. When I was a kid in the 1970's I fully
expected
that I would at least be helping to build an O'Neil colony at L4 or L5
by now.
Every single popular book on the subject, such as by Gerald K. O'Neil,
T.A.
Heppenhienmer and G. Harry Stine had ignited my enthusiasm and
expectations
that shaped my entire young adult life - including my initial decision
to study
engineering and physics in college. Needless to say I am neither - a
decision
that was hastened by the 1986 Challenger explosion.
** However, I disagree with your conclusions about change slowing down.
Granted there has not been any major scientific advancement or
technological
development. But there has been widespread social and political changes
that
have occurred around the world based on those early 20th century
advancements.
Youth nowadays experience more worldwide culture in an afternoon of TV
than any
of our grandparents did in a decade. We are exposed on a daily basis to
thoughts, ideas and images from around the world that constantly
challenge our
world view and personal outlook. Air travel has made the world a much
smaller
space, with millions of people moving around constantly. A visit to
California, particularly LA or the Bay Area will push this point home.
It is
so cosmopolitan now that a comparison to life of those areas even 20
years ago
is like talking about a completely different planet.
The internet has accelerated the pace of memetic evolution off the
scale.
Unfortunately this memetic evolution has not yet brought us fundamental
advancements in basic science or technology.
To clarify yours and my position in computational language -- there has
been
very little change in agents (fundamentals), but massive unpredictable
change
in the interactions *between* those agents. It's not the TV so much as
the
fact that there 100's of millions around the world. Its not the
computer so
much as it is the 100's of millions of them linking up through the
internet.
That is what's making the difference, especially on a local and personal
level
and I strongly suspect on the global-political arena as well. I still
think
nation states will wither away as more cybernetically organized
co-operatives,
both business and private, take their place. History will see such
changes
(those taking place now), as punctuated ones comparable only to the
agricultural and industrial ones of the past.
Paul Hughes
planetp@aci.net
http://www.aci.net/planetp
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