From: Damien R. Sullivan (phoenix@ugcs.caltech.edu)
Date: Sun Sep 13 1998 - 21:54:59 MDT
I was struck by Vinge's referring to bacterial conjugation and the nature of
corporations. Particularly the latter, when I recalled Sasha's liquid
intelligence ideas. And by his response to Robin, and mention of _Metaman_
(which I've read.) Most of this will be recap, but perhaps presented
differently. First, some literary abuse:
Civilizations in the High Beyond produce artifacts not producible in the Lower
Beyond, even when understood there, which are sold in exchange for raw
materials and art. They can do this because physical conditions in their Zone
allow higher bandwidth, and thus more complex forms of organization. The
individuals are similar to those Below, but organized better, and probably
educated better through those organizations. Even when understood, the High
Beyond is not imitable due to conditions below. Individuals from Below
trickle on High, but the High Beyond itself extends only slowly Below.
Civilizations in the West make products not producible in the Rest of the
world, even when understood there, which are sold in exchange for raw
materials and art. They can do this because cultural conditions in their Zone
allow more trust and reliable contracts, and thus more complex forms of
organization. The individuals are similar to those elsewhere, but organized
better, as well as educated better through those organizations. Even when
understood, the West is not imitable due to conditions elsewhere. Individuals
from the Rest trickle to the West, but the West itself extends only slowly
elsewhere.
Analysis: in the High Beyond authorial magic allows greater linking of
computers and people which can run more complex factories and design the
products for those factories. In the West (northwestern Europe, North
America, Australia/New Zealand, Japan) mass literacy, general reliability of
contract, general trustworthiness, reliability of property, a common bourgeois
ethic, and a working price system allow greater linking of people in companies
(and service-providing governments) which can flexibly organize people for
projects exceeding anyone's grasp, and do so for long periods of time.
More abuse:
The Great Link of the changelings of Star Trek's Dominion is a massive ocean
of minds, freely exchanging thoughts and experience. Changelings should be
capable of forming organisms and structures large and small to handle a huge
diversity of tasks for varying lengths of time. We haven't actually seen
much, but it got me thinking:
The Great Market of western civilization is a massive ocean of human minds,
using language, writing, and prices to exchange thoughts, experience, and
desires. In it people are capable of forming structures and superorganisms
large and small to handle a huge diversity of tasks for varying lengths of
time. In Silicon Valley companies rise and dissolve and have their components
rise again in some other combination over and over, merging and splitting and
recycling. Liquid intelligence? Look there. Elsewhere the huge structures
of Motorola and others are coming together to erect Iridium and Teledesic;
presumably they'll link less closely after those are built. 30 years ago a
huge structure crystallized out of the Great Market, when enough components
agreed to send a bit to the Moon. When that was found to be unsupportable it
dissolved, and companies and factories turned to other purposes. 55 years ago
the Market responded to threat by coalescing into a huge war machine,
producing tons of materiel and soldiers until the threat was vanquished. Then
that machine mostly died and dissolved as pieces broke off and reformed
civilian firms.
Conclusion? Much of what we anticipate has already happened, at fast rates,
and with the creation of sharp dichotomies. I already hear that no one person
can fully understand a Boeing 747, or MS Excel. We can already produce
superintelligences capable of producing things our minds aren't big enough to
grasp. The consciousness isn't superhuman, but a human CEO makes decisions
based on superhuman levels of prior processing, and with superhuman (in
complexity, not just gross scale) consequences.
So, what would change if our dreams came true? Everything and not very much.
Direct neural connections and liquid intelligence at the subhuman level,
would be revolutionary for individuals, redefining (or throwing away) what it
means to be human. But above the human level not much would change.
Efficiency could increase a great deal -- lower training costs, being able to
get more precisely the thinker you need, perhaps greater reliability and
honesty, since less individual self-interest. But the type of process would
be exactly the same as the West has today.
One might think that with direct links posthumans couldn't make the
stupidities a corporation can, if it has a stupid CEO or a smart CEO gets
wrong data. And possibly it wouldn't make the same errors -- I really can't
model that. But consideration of the existence of malapropisms, and people
who seem to speak faster than they think, and all sorts of cognitive slips and
errors and seeming contradictions in individual people should quickly remove
any conviction that direct neural links are any guarantee of posthuman pure
sanity and rationality.
So from the human point of view we can change things a lot by changing our
species. But that's not the traditional Singularity. As far as superhuman
accomplishments and beings go the Singularity happened already. Or we're in
it: a product of language, money, writing, and law to allow cooperation to
form large and long-term but flexible (and self-modifying!) firms.
(Which explains why Iain Banks' Culture has never Transcended: no money.)
Of course, if we take the Singularity at its most basic level, an inability of
an SF writer to imagine stories after a certain level of progress, then the
dissolution of human beings into an inhuman soup of thinking abilities would
qualify, even while an economist was observing nothing more than a modest
increase in GNP.
-xx- Damien R. Sullivan X-)
Evolution: "uber alleles"
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