From: Nick Bostrom (bostrom@ndirect.co.uk)
Date: Tue Sep 08 1998 - 18:27:57 MDT
One can argue for the singularity without making assumptions about
the software complexity problem of getting from human to
superintelligence. The reason is that with nanotechnology, so-called
"weak superintelligence" would be sufficient. The argument goes like
this:
The nanotech-uploading argument
In the first half of the next century, we get molecular nanotechnology
in the sense of a general assembler. Using nanotechnology, we can
upload humans. Nanotechnology also makes it possible to build
computers that are fast enough to run an upload as high speed. Drexler
has sketched out a simple mechanical nanocomputer the size of a sugar
cube with a processing power one million times that of a human brain.
Hence we can run the best human brains at a speed where after one day
they will have experienced more than two thousand subjective years
each. During this time they will almost certainly have managed to
design more effective architectures such as electronic nanocomputers
and quantum computers. Since the uploads can control a molecular lab
at molecular speeds, they are not slowed down by having to rely on
humans to carry out trial-and-error testing. If the uploads have a
sufficient stock of raw materials, they can easily build themselves
larger and faster computers to run on, and they can design and build
machines that can get them even more raw materials. All this can
happen in less than 24 hours. If the uploads so decide, they can of
course go then on to quickly transform Earth into more computers and
launch vehicles for von Neumann probes. It is perfectly possible that
the singularity happens before uploading takes place, but this
argument shows it will happen no later.
Nick Bostrom
http://www.hedweb.com/nickb n.bostrom@lse.ac.uk
Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
London School of Economics
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