From: Nick Bostrom (bostrom@ndirect.co.uk)
Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 - 16:43:22 MDT
Here is the last section of the FAQ. After allowing a few days for
people to comment on this, it's time to write up. Experienced
transhumanists who want to contribute in the writing up stage should
email me personally (n.bostrom@lse.ac.uk). A preliminary draft will
later be put up on a web page and anybody will be able to suggest
further modifications, using CritLink.
PRACTICALITIES AND THE TRANSHUMANIST PROGRAM
[I have suggested answers for three of these questions. I found the
first two questions rather difficult to answer in a meaningful way in
just a few paragraphs. I'm not satisfied with my replies to those
two.]
What evidence is there that it will happen?
Many of the developments that transhumanists discuss are already
happening: e.g. the Internet, imperfect mood drugs, genetic
engineering and advanced medicine are part of today's reality. Some
are near-future developments that nobody really doubts will happen: it
is obvious (barring a major cataclysm) that we will have faster
computers that will support some forms of virtual reality; wearable
computers; neurological prostheses; much more powerful genetic
engineering tools that will make it possible to choose many traits of
our offspring; improved mood drugs; advanced collaborative information
filtering structures on the Internet, etc.
As for superintelligence and nanotechnology, see the questions about
these. When these two technologies are developed, it will be possible
to cheaply manufacture most material structures that are compatible
with physical law. Thus, it should be feasible to: colonize the
universe by sending out self-replicating probes; upload biological
brains; reanimate cryonics patients; experience full-blown virtual
reality; have control over our emotions and mental states - which
means that boredom and suffering could be replaced by a sense of deep
meaningfulness and excitement, for example.
These transhumanist prospects will not happen within a hundred years;
won't it take more like a thousand years?
Considerations about what is permitted by physical laws can tell us
what is in principle possible. Theoretical exploration of plausible
design-paths can be used to make a case that certain technologies,
such as nanotechnology, will eventually be practically feasible. It is
harder, however, to argue rigorously for when this will happen. The
uncertainty in the time-scale is partly due to our ignorance of
exactly how hard some developments will be, and partly to the fact
that the speed of progress in a specific area depends on how much
resources are made available, which in turn is determined by
hard-to-predict social and economic factors.
Most transhumanists think that superintelligence and nanotechnology
will both happen in less than a hundred years, and many believe that
they will happen well within the first third of the next century.
(Some reasons for believing this are outlined in the sections about
these two technologies, respectively.) Once there is both
nanotechnology and superintelligence, a wide range of special
applications should swiftly follow.
Many transhumanist goals can and are successfully pursued with
currently available tools. There is not a sharp distinction between
transhumanist prospects and other worthwhile goals. Humans have always
endeavoured to improve things, including themselves. Transhumanists
just want to continue this process of human self-augmentation, even to
the point where we will redefine some of the features and boundaries
that are currently seen as fundamental to human nature.
What if it doesn't work?
Then we would presumably back to status quo. But the issue is not
whether it will work so much as what will work and how and when. With
many potentially transforming technologies already available and
others uncontroversially on the line, it is clear that there will be
large scope for human self-augmentation.
As for the more superlative transhuman technologies, such as
nanotechnology and supertintelligence, they are reachable through
several independent paths. If one path turns out to be blocked, we can
try another. This adds to the likelihood that it will be possible to
reach the target.
If nevertheless for some unforeseen reason we can't develop molecular
nanotechnology and superhuman artificial intelligence, and not the
things that these technologies would make possible - uploading,
reanimation of cryonics patients, indefinite life-spans etc. - that
would be disappointing. We could find some solace however in all the
useful things that we would no doubt have discovered on the journey:
new tools for genetic engineering, mood-drugs, information technology,
faster computers, new useful chemicals, new medicines and organ
transplantation techniques, more compact computer memories. And in
other areas of life and science the field of possibilities would still
be wide open.
How could I become a posthuman?
Isn't the possibility of success in cryonics too small?
Will the people of the future be interested in restoring you?
What recent progress has been made towards transhumanist goals?
How can I become involved in transhumanism?
_____________________________________________________
Nick Bostrom
Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
London School of Economics
n.bostrom@lse.ac.uk
http://www.hedweb.com/nickb
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