From: Hal Finney (hal@rain.org)
Date: Mon May 11 1998 - 11:41:58 MDT
I posted last year about a set of predictions by the "resident futurist"
at British Telecom labs, at:
http://btlabs1.labs.bt.com/library/on-line/calendar/index.htm
They are sorted by technology and then by date within categories.
Unfortunately there is no accompanying discussion or justification,
which is a shame since the dates he gives seem implausibly optimistic.
For example, in 1998 in the biotech/medical field he predicts the use of
artificial muscle in heart transplants; home diagnostic systems with
daily health check-up; virtual reality based exercisers in homes; AI
based elderly/handicapped support devices; and an artificial pancreas.
By 2000 he further predicts artificial blood; disability assistance
devices using thought recognition; full personal medical records stored
on smart cards; and artificial ears.
I won't say he's going to be wrong about all of these, but I'd be surprised
if more than one or two of these nine items occured in the predicted time
frame.
Hal
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