From: Dan Fabulich (daniel.fabulich@yale.edu)
Date: Sat May 09 1998 - 21:28:15 MDT
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
GBurch1 wrote:
>2000
>Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
Processors double in power. 1 GHz are available but mostly unaffordable.
400-500 MHz drops below $1000.
Interface changes little; flat screens are still expensive, CRTs drop
slightly. Speech recognition gets good enough that it's almost more
efficient for dictation, if it weren't so expensive and proofreading
weren't so tedious. Some few products are made available based on EEG
mind-reading. Mostly just switches, and a few toys. Cost, coupled with
training time, makes them unfeasible for other purposes.
Netscape releases its first official upgrade based on open-source research;
Microsoft's browser loses little market share thanks to its licensing
restrictions. Windows 2000 is put off to Win2001. Office incorporates new
speech recognition software; sucks compared to competition, but used anyway.
The biggest pipes have doubled and their number increased by 150%. Smaller
ISPs start vanishing. More documents are written in XML than HTML;
searching is still difficult.
>Communication Technology:
Cell phones get cheaper, even more ubiquitous. Quantum computing is
looking more and more feasible as a tool to break codes. NSA is silent
about its own progress. Quantum cryptography is still too expensive for
most.
>Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
More work with neural nets made to do more and more useful things. Nobody
passes the Turing test. More progress in artificial neurons; finer muscle
control available. Still exhausting. Several treatments for Alzheimers,
none of which seem close to a cure, all of which seem to help ease the
symptoms somewhat.
>Genetic Science and Technology:
Genome project still coming along nicely. No human clones anywhere, as far
as the public is aware. Some private testing still going on, but not
making much progress, and it is increasingly difficult to find scientists
who will help, not so much because of the worldwide ban, but because of the
100% failure rate. Progress is still being made, but cloning supporters
must fight for every step.
>General Medicine:
A highly invasive and extremely painful treatment for AIDS becomes
available, involving treating the bone marrow in all of the major bones
individually. Most AIDS patients don't consider it worth the pain, or the
expense.
Improved artery treatments; no cures on the horizon.
Angiostatin-endostatin work, but nowhere near as well as they did for mice.
Submitted for FDA approval as a less invasive treatment, but not a
replacement for other mechanisms. Research in the direction of treating
cancer by starving its blood supply increases.
Cryonics research continues, but no breakthroughs or significant
improvements. Slight improvement in cell damage prevention.
>Other Biology:
More germline engineering of farm animals. Animal rights activists in an
uproar, firms required to label products which have ingredients which come
from genetically engineered life.
The FDA takes more flak. It still doesn't care.
>Power Technology:
Power market somewhat deregulated in a few areas; some suffer, due to
government regulations still in place, which make life difficult for power
firms. Failures blamed on the free market.
A few scattered sources of new energy, but no new compelling alternative
technologies become available. No progress in cold fusion.
>Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology
CPU chips start to move away from lithography and towards something else.
(Not precisely certain what.) Nanotechnology makes more progress, most of
which is still theoretical. No one looks like they're about to build an
assembler yet. Those inside the field say that the going is slow; those
outside the field still think it's just around the corner.
More use of MEMs in military technology. We don't hear much about it.
>General Transportation Technology:
The clean car movement: electric, hybrid, etc. continues to progress.
Clean cars become almost as good as gas guzzlers, but much more expensive
to maintain. Government considers subsidizing the extra costs.
>Aeronautics:
Little advance in consumer market. The military keeps on working on
whatever it's working on. We don't hear anything at all about it.
>Space Technology and Development:
More of the private sattelite companies start seeing the light at the end
of the tunnel. Two seem ready to go online "real soon now." Mir is
finally put to rest; no replacement looks ready for the next two or three
years. Lunar ice studied. Some talk of private ventures into space; a few
expensive private Earth orbit shuttles, but no real market to speak of.
>Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
A tiny upstart brokerage starts selling stocks with digital-bearer
settlement. It's cheaper, but not all that much cheaper, thanks to
remaining government regulations based on book-entry finances. Other
companies consider it, but payoffs look distant. Microinvesting becomes
more common in the US. Digital cash has not caught on; people stick with
SET, which works OK.
>Personal Lifestyles:
Pagers and cell phones get really really REALLY ubiquitous, starting to
seriously change the way people live. People continue to work harder and
consume more.
>Law and Government:
The government surplus starts to get spent. No real welfare reform.
Social security hacked up in an attempt to withstand the Boomers. Those
who know brace for impact; those who don't keep on spending.
>Art and Entertainment:
No new movement towards computer art; keeps growing, but no faster than the
art industry itself, maybe even a little slower. Some new projects which
are interesting, but don't change anybody's lives.
>2005
>Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
Processors quadruple. 4GHZ processors drop below $1000. Speech
recognition looks really good. Those trained in EEG switches start finding
a market for their efforts. Networks get AWFULLY fast; Internet continues
its centralizing trend.
>Communication Technology:
Cell phones are everywhere; everyone has them. Pagers all but vanish.
Computer vidphones and phone companies reach a standards agreement.
Quantum computing is used to break a simple DES code. NSA is silent about
what it's got. Those who need to stay secure pay the exorbitant cost of
quantum cryptography.
>Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
Scientists start reaching some conclusions about how the mind works.
Spinal regeneration technology starts bearing serious fruit. Artificial
neurons are indistinguishable from the originals. Full body transplants
start being able to use their new bodies, though control sucks.
>Genetic Science and Technology:
Genome project finished. A human is successfully cloned; a black market
begins to develop. DNA analysis becomes regular; treatments prescribed
within a day.
>General Medicine:
AIDS cure is available, but inconsistent. Some people walk away as if
they'd never had the disease, others find the virus make a comeback which
scientists find exceptionally difficult to treat. Heart disease continues
to make progress; no breakthroughs, just slow and steady. Cryopreservation
makes more progress. Looks chancy; sometimes animals manage to escape
alive, most die shortly after reanimation. VERY few animals can survive
reanimation twice.
>Other Biology:
Nearly ALL products made with germline engineered plant/animal products.
Market gets used to the idea.
>Power Technology:
Oil shocks start to return, but thanks to various other energy sources, it
doesn't hurt much. Governments which chose to subsidize alternative energy
find revenues drop as prices want to rise with oil. Power still government
controlled in most areas.
>Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology
"Smart" materials used in various areas, though not nanotechnologically
based. Still no assembler.
>General Transportation Technology:
Clean cars subsidized, gas can barely compete. Government takes a beating
as prices want to rise with the oil market.
>Aeronautics:
Faster planes; the military lets us know about a breakthrough or two.
>Space Technology and Development:
Majority of sattelites are private. Private launches to the moon seem
eminent.
>Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
Digital bearer-settlement starts to become more common. Physical stock
markets are all but empty. Digital cash companies are still around, now
fighting to get people to accept digital gold futures in exchange for
goods. Credit cards still the most common way to do business for
consumers. Real cash is still around, however.
>Personal Lifestyles:
You can't get away from the rest of us. :)
>Law and Government:
Areas with smaller governments have flourishing governments; those with big
tax-spend governments have seen their government take MAJOR hits over the
last several years. NOW privitization begins in earnest, as the government
can barely afford to pay for their services.
>Art and Entertainment:
?
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: PGP for Personal Privacy 5.5.3
iQEVAwUBNVUezPJQm6Y3yAfNAQH2dwf+NkuN3shNAhs0LgE9eu1DL7W4FwNeoY1y
kySw0WMy/ZhXlQW8cViHoZ/3toKny2PrJeDP8mD5kev9qesSZlzUJLDCsQVWHMMH
66si420Imj03FHRqFbdFvdq4R5bfcFj3FnzEUwsOccwhz/LVXnUYV3JHuOUwkKXz
nmOt/5uLVGvaeu/U7V3U3e5sAH4RH2z20T+ZU63VgyuGv0OesCyLjwt1tWsj72Xd
2qN/r89W3zMZIfc+c22f15+OLyQ8RERY4uv27w4LYESSYWzdGregefc9fuBEH2i/
eZ+i+q2Mb9rm0ZKGXi7qyOu8+/VH1rGEVvamw2A8U6rT6FRz/E8QyQ==
=gRec
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
-TODAY IS A GOOD DAY TO LIVE-
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 14:49:04 MST