From: N.BOSTROM@lse.ac.uk
Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 - 17:39:54 MDT
>There was nobody in this reference
>class before the last century. Perhaps this implies that with 90%
>probability, everyone will forget their history sometime between 2010 and
>3000 AD.
Yes, that is an interesting observation.
>Could some combination of a Singularity and interstellar migration
>render the past infomationally inaccessible, and convince most people that
>the human race endures from everlasting to everlasting?
Or they will all buy into the Hedonistic Imperative (http://www.hedweb.com)
and not bother about history any longer.
I don't know. If it turns out that the DA holds water then the question about
the reference class becomes very pressing. You are right that there might
be an interpretation other than doom soom. This is a problem I would
like to think think about if nobody sinks the DA.
All the best,
Nick
_______________________ Reply Separator _______________________
Subject: Doomsday or merely the End Of History?
Author: Carl Feynman <carlf@atg.com> at :external_mail
Date: 15/7/97 4:11 PM
Mr. Bostrom--
I just read your paper on the Doomsday Argument (not as closely as I should
have). I am intrigued by the reference class "people who know their
approximate place in human history". There was nobody in this reference
class before the last century. Perhaps this implies that with 90%
probability, everyone will forget their history sometime between 2010 and
3000 AD. Could some combination of a Singularity and interstellar migration
render the past infomationally inaccessible, and convince most people that
the human race endures from everlasting to everlasting?
--Carl Feynman
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