From: Chris Hind (chind@juno.com)
Date: Tue Jan 07 1997 - 23:04:28 MST
>I found the following site run by the US Air Force (my old service) on a
>study done by the Air War College on the US and the Air Forces future in
>2025. They worked with futurists and scientists to project several
>alternative futures. The one which most of us see as most likely and
>most beneficial, they view as the most scary possiblity, which is rather
>unsettling.
Not suprising. Kind of reminds me of a snippet from this one episode of the
Simpsons:
Lawyer asks the question "What would the world be like without lawyers?"
(Picture bubble shows him thinking about people holding hands around the
world)
Lawyer replies, "Ughh! Chilling!"
>> Lots of stuff there. Could you tell what view you mean, and where it is
>> at the site?
>The scenario that I associated with our goals, is one they described as
>having exponential tech growth with "horrifying" increases in the power
>of individuals and small groups.
The text follows. You can find it at http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/index.htm
>Alternate Futures
>
>Study participants used a forecasting technique known as alternate futures
to help them envision an array of future worlds in which the U.S. must be
able to survive and prosper in the year 2025. The 2025 team studied the
works of respected futurists, then identified their own factors or drivers
of change in the future. More than 100 individual drivers were considered.
Ultimately the three drivers most relevant in terms of structuring the
environment affecting U.S. security in the next century were chosen.
>
>American World View. The U.S. perspective of the world which determines
its willingness and capability to interact with the rest of the world, and
ranges from domestic to global.
>
>TeK. The differential rate of growth, proliferation, leverage, and
vitality of scientific knowledge and technical applications and their
consequences. This driver ranges from constrained to exponential. When
constrained, evolutionary changes are occurring and it is possible for
nations or groups to preserve technological monopolies and advantages. When
change is exponential, revolutionary technological changes are possible and
nations or groups are unable to preserve technological leverage, monopolies
and advantages.
>
>World Power Grid. The generation (sources -- social, political, economic,
military, etc.), transmission (directions, resistance, speed), distribution
(number and types of actors) and control (influence, leverage) of power
throughout the world. This driver ranges from concentrated to dispersed.
The world power grid is concentrated when a few actors have the means or
will to influence others and dispersed when many actors can effectively
influence world events.
>
>The 2025 team used the creative but disciplined alternate futures
procedure to describe various plausible future worlds, each separate and
distinct, and each offering different security and planning challenges. In
the first world, the U.S.'s military might is constrained by many world
players with other forms of power. A second world depicts the extreme
impacts of a future dominated by multinational corporate giants. A third
world is a scary future in which information and biogenetic technology is
dispersed, giving individuals and small groups untold power. In a fourth
world, the U.S. loses its status as a superpower to an Asian colossus. A
fifth future envisions a world marked by fundamental changes in the social
structure, environment and the international security system, making it
difficult for the United States to determine how best to exert its power
and influence. The final world depicts how a major conflict in 2015 could
shape events in 2025.
"Every obstacle is a stepping stone to your success."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Chris Hind (chind@juno.com) Upward, Outward, ACTION!
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