From: John K Clark (johnkc@well.com)
Date: Mon Dec 09 1996 - 21:58:46 MST
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In talking about The Singularity we have, quite rightly, concentrated only on
those things we know are possible, but I'm in a silly, irresponsible mood
today. I don't want to talk about humdrum things like Immortality,
Nanotechnology, Super Human Intelligence or Uploading, I want to talk about
things that are thought to be impossible, or at least not proven to be
possible.
I am certain that the first 7 things on the following list are impossible.
The question is, am I not only certain but correct too? I've included my own
estimate of the probability that the statements are wrong. The error estimates
are based on nothing but my gut feeling and so are probably worthless, but
these are the odds I would give if I were betting.
1) Faster than light travel is impossible.
Probability of error .00000001%
2) Faster than light signaling can not be done.
Probability of error .0000001%
3) We can never communicating with the past.
Probability of error .0000001%
4) Inertia-less space drive would violate today's physics and tomorrow's too.
Probability of error .00001%
5) Spinning super conductive disks will never create an anti-gravity effect.
Probability of error .00001%
6) Picotechnology is impossible because structures would not be ridged.
Probability of error .001%
7) An advanced extraterrestrial civilization will never be discovered.
Probability of error .01%
8) A Quantum Computer will not be made in the next 15 years.
Probability of error 30%
9) A Quantum Computer will never be made.
Probability of error 60%
10) Nothing in the future will surprise John Clark.
Probability of error 100%
11) My error estimates are correct.
Probability of error unknown.
John K Clark johnkc@well.com
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