From: Dan Clemmensen (dgc@shirenet.com)
Date: Thu Oct 03 1996 - 17:18:12 MDT
Robin Hanson wrote:
>
[SNIP]
> The whole issue is about the rates of change. You have been claiming
> that this technology will produce much faster rates of change and
> economic growth than we have seen with other technologies, and I have
> been asking for your reasons. In the above, you simply repeat your
> claim of faster change several times, but do not give reasons.
>
1) Assumption: the compuer component contributes non-trivially to the
intelligence of the entity, once the entity comes into existance
2) Observation: computer hardware and software technology are advancing
at an empirically-observed exponential rate known as "Moore's Law",
which we both agreed is unlikely to change in the near future. This
rate is dramatically faster than the 30-year sustained rates of
increase
of the other technologies you mention.
3) Assumption: a more-intelligent entity can develop
intelligence-augmentation
faster than a less-intelligent entity.
4) Conclusion: This is a fast-feedback loop.
Best I can do concisely, Robin.
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