From: William (williamweb@hotmail.com)
Date: Fri Dec 13 2002 - 10:00:47 MST
Avatar,
Your analysis below is extremely accurate in my opinion. Thanks for
saying this better than I probably could have. (I'm saving it for future
reference.) - Bill.
> Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2002 04:18:31 +1100
> From: "Avatar Polymorph" <avatarpolymorph@hotmail.com>
> Subject: RE:
>
> Since there have been lots of posts on Iraq, I thought I might put up a
copy
> of a letter of mine. This has absolutely no bearing on my personal views
on
> war, violence or any conflict in Iraq. It is purely an assessment. Also, I
> am fully cognizant of oil politics, Venezuela, etc. I might also add that
I
> am certain that many western countries, Australia and Japan included,
could
> have minor nuclear weapons capability within several hours of an
> "emergency", whatever their official stated governmental positions.
>
> Avatar
> =======================
>
> The impending US-UK war with Iraq is not primarily due to oil, terrorism,
> biological or chemical weapons, human rights, dictatorship, punishment
(for
> the invasion of Kuwait) or revenge (for Saddam Hussein's survival of the
> Gulf War) - however influential these factors have been from the
sidelines.
>
> The Iraqi war is due to the non-Western nuclear arms race.
>
> Aerial bombing has already nullified Iraq's current nuclear weapons
> production programme (beginning with the Israeli bombing of its nuclear
> power plant in 1981 and continuing through Gulf War and post-Gulf War
US-UK
> air strikes).
>
> However, the only non-Western nuclear power (China) has already been
joined
> by two others, India and Pakistan, with between several and several dozen
> atomic bombs each.
>
> The "Axis of Evil" was and is next in line. Iraq, Iran and North Korea
have
> all attempted to construct atomic weapons. This process is a continuing
one
> in Iran and North Korea, and has halted for the moment in Iraq.
>
> The US has belatedly realized the danger of having allowed the Indian
> sub-continent to enter the atomic arms race which had stabilized in
Western
> countries. Unlike South Africa, these countries will not voluntarily
rescind
> their nuclear weapons acquisition programmes. The US has convinced the
other
> Western nuclear powers that action is necessary.
>
> The invasion of Iraq is a demonstration of will intended to intimidate
Iran
> and North Korea. If it does not succeed in disturbing their acquisitions
> programme, it is highly likely that an aerial campaign will be fought
> against Iran and that China will be placed under enormous pressure to
> acquiesce to similar action in North Korea. They will be picked off one by
> one by the West.
>
> Many commentators would judge such a possibility to be ridiculous, given
the
> risks involved. However, these risks are not military risks at the
strategic
> level. It is likely that unmanned US fighter planes will be joining
unmanned
> US surveillance planes in the skis above Iran and North Korea.
>
> Finally, having dealt with the "Axis of Evil" the US will not allow
Pakistan
> to retain its nuclear capability. India may have achieved a fait accompli
> and joined China as a permanent nuclear power, due to its sheer size. The
US
> will however be reluctant to allow India, an unstable marginal democracy
> only tentatively allied to the West, to add to the non-Western (Chinese)
> nuclear arsenal at a time when the US and Russia wish to reduce their own
> overall weapons numbers. (An uncontrolled non-Western nuclear arms race
> could in itself easily double or treble the numbers of non-Western nuclear
> arms, raising them to a thousand and altering the global strategic
balance.)
>
> The September 11 attacks have demonstrated to America that a rogue State
> driven by ideology (Afghanistan) is capable of ruthless tactical attack
> despite the inevitability of retaliation. From a military perspective the
US
> believes it must prevent State-level atomic attacks from occurring. Apart
> from invading Afghanistan (punishment for September 11) and developing
> anti-ballistic missile systems, this entails halting the non-Western
nuclear
> arms race by force, following the "demonstration" of consequence about to
> play out in Iraq.
>
> _________________________________________________________________
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