From: Camp, Christopher (CCamp@omm.com)
Date: Thu Dec 05 2002 - 15:31:18 MST
I did some research and found the following sources investigating the
relationship between economic growth and life span.
http://www.corp.aventis.com/future/downloads/PDF/fut0202/En_2_2002_health_an
d_wealth.pdf
<http://www.corp.aventis.com/future/downloads/PDF/fut0202/En_2_2002_health_a
nd_wealth.pdf> - a short overview on the relationship between health (life
span included) and economic growth. The article mentions work done by the
economists R.W. Fogel and Robert Barro. Barro claims that a 10% increase in
life expectancy could translate to a 0.4% increase in econ growth. For the
US this would mean an extra $400 billion (2001 $'s) for the coming year
(based on 2001 GDP according to the US Dept. of Commerce BEA -
http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm <http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm> )
Fogel wrote - A Theory of Technophysio Evolution, with Some Implications for
Forecasting Population, Health Care Costs, and Pension Costs - which has
some interesting documentation and speculation on the health/lifespan/econ
issue. http://www.ssri.niu.edu/dl/fogel.html
<http://www.ssri.niu.edu/dl/fogel.html>
Barro's book (which I have read only a review of) seems to have some good
info too - "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical
Study"
When I think about the possibilities of extreme life extension the economic
implications seem to be some of the most pressing. It is promising to see
some substantial work being done that shows that increased life spans may
actually make us wealthier.
Another question to consider - what is the maximum productivity for
unmodified humans, modified humans and which modifications will have the
greatest impact on economic growth. Maybe forecasting the productivity of
potential modifications (calculating some expected rate of Return on
Investment) will help decide which modification to undertake first. A
series of actual and hypothetical production possibility curves would be
useful - I have not found any work in this area but I think a well argued
paper on this subject would be a useful memetic tool for the transhuman
movement.
Chris
-----Original Message-----
From: Ramez Naam [mailto:mez@apexnano.com]
Sent: Saturday, November 30, 2002 9:12 AM
To: extropians@extropy.org
Subject: economic growth through longer lives?
A few months ago I was reading something that referred to a mainstream
economist who has posited that much of the economic growth of the 20th
century in the western world has come as a result of longer lives. The
basic idea is that longer life has allowed greater worker accumulation of
skills and experience which have in turn benefited the economy.
Does anyone know which economist this is or have a reference to his work?
thanks,
mez
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