From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Sat Nov 16 2002 - 14:12:12 MST
On Sat, 16 Nov 2002, John K Clark wrote:
> We're a long way from being able to model even one person on a computer and
> you're talking about figuring out how billions of them interact, and that
> doesn't even count the weather, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and lots of
> other stuff that can effect an economy. Moore's Law is no help because it
> works both ways, the individuals in the economy will be getting smarter and
> more complex too.
I disagree. "Economy" by definition implies decisions on how to allocate
funds/resources. I do not spend 18 hours a day executing such decisions.
Economic decisions probably consume ~10-15 minutes a day determining what
to buy at the grocery store and perhaps an additional couple of hours
a month for the decisions/bill paying regarding economic "necessities".
Sure there are the extreme examples you cite -- but even 30+ recent deaths
due to tornadoes isn't going to disrupt the economy significantly except
in very local situations.
Moore's Law isn't making individuals smarter or more complex -- its letting
them run Quicken faster so they can deal with the economic drudgery that
1st world economies seem to require which in turn gives them more time
to watch ER reruns or go hiking in the Cascades (or browse the ExI list
wondering why there isn't more "significant" content here...).
Robert
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