From: Amara Graps (amara@amara.com)
Date: Fri Nov 15 2002 - 08:20:55 MST
Follow up on previous email. This page does a better job at
summarizing and predicting places and rates and times for the Leonids 2002.
(Remember, the next storm is 2099)
http://comets.amsmeteors.org/meteors/showers/leonidprediction.html
Gary Kronks 2002 Predictions
(Revised as of Nov. 8, 2002)
*New mathematical models were introduced during 1999* which successfully
predicted the date and times the Leonid meteor stream would reach
maximum in that year. Unfortunately, these same models failed to
adequately model the intensity of the displays. Although slight
improvements were made for the 2000 and 2001 displays, no model received
a perfect score. With three years worth of strong displays behind them,
astronomers are trying again in 2002, knowing that this will be the last
chance for storm-level displays from the Leonids for nearly 100 years.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
First Predicted Maximum: 3:48 to 4:04 UT on November 19
1767 dust trail; Favors western Europe
Hourly Rate Predictions: 810 to 2000 (Asher & McNaught), 3500
(Lyytinen), 5900 (Jenniskens), 3400 (Vaubaillon & Colas), 2000
to 5200 (Langbroek)
European Local Times
of First Peak on November 19
*Eastern European Time: 5:48 to 6:04 a.m.* (includes Athens, Bucharest,
Helsinki, Istanbul)
*Central European Time: 4:48 to 5:04 a.m.* (includes Amsterdam,
Barcelona, Berlin, Madrid, Paris, Prague, Rome, Vienna)
*Western European Time: 3:48 to 4:04 a.m.* (includes Dublin, Edinburgh,
London)
*2:48 to 3:04 a.m.* (includes Azores)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Second Predicted Maximum: 10:23 to 10:47 UT on November 19
1866 dust trail; Favors North America
Hourly Rate Predictions: 2900-6000 (Asher & McNaught), 2600
(Lyytinen), 5400 (Jenniskens), 3000 (Vaubaillon & Colas), 2400
to 5700 (Langbroek)
US, Canadian, and Mexican Local Times
of Second Peak on November 19
*Eastern Standard Time: 5:23 to 5:47 a.m.* (includes Atlanta, Baltimore,
Boston, Detroit, Indianapolis, Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, Miami,
Toronto, Washington DC)
*Central Standard Time: 4:23 to 4:47 a.m.* (includes Chicago, Houston,
Kansas City, Little Rock, Mexico City, Milwaukee, Minneapolis,
Nashville, St. Louis)
*Mountain Standard Time: 3:23 to 3:47 a.m.* (includes Albuquerque,
Calgary, Cheyenne, Denver, Edmonton, Phoenix, Santa Fe)
*Pacific Standard Time: 2:23 to 2:47 a.m.* (includes Las Vegas, Los
Angeles, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle)
-- ************************************************************************ Amara Graps, PhD | Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik Heidelberg Cosmic Dust Group | Saupfercheckweg 1 +49-6221-516-543 | 69117 Heidelberg, GERMANY Amara.Graps@mpi-hd.mpg.de * http://www.mpi-hd.mpg.de/dustgroup/~graps ************************************************************************ "We came whirling out of Nothingness scattering stars like dust." --Rumi
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