From: Technotranscendence (neptune@mars.superlink.net)
Date: Wed Nov 13 2002 - 17:55:57 MST
Thought this might be of interest.
Cheers!
Dan
http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/
Film recommendation: "Black Narcissus" on Criterion DVD.
From: Dennis May determinism@hotmail.com
To: Starship_Forum@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 13, 2002 6:59 PM
Subject: [Starship_Forum] Re: Fermi and K-Pax
Monart Pon wrote:
>I tend to be agnostic about the real (versus fictional) existence of
ET.
>I recognize at least the possibility of ET, and only a small
probability
>of ET because of some eyewitness reports and documents.
I view it likely that intelligent life
in the universe is abundant but space
faring technological civilizations
fairly sparse in density. Such groups
in space appear rarer than they are out
of military concerns.
It would seem to me that there are three
plateaus to cross and many intelligent
species may remain at one plateau or
another for long periods of time:
1. The borderline conceptual level:
chimps, dolphins, elephants, and such.
Millions of years can be spent on this
plateau. Most all become extinct before
advancing.
2. The hunter-gatherer level: conceptual
skills, language, some tool use is evident.
Ten or hundreds of thousands of years on
this plateau should be common. Many become
extinct on this plateau - some of our human
cousins being an example.
3. The borderline industrial level: there
have been numerous human civilizations prior
to the industrial revolution. When each failed
most of what was learned was lost. A particular
set of circumstances must exist for a civilization
to reach industrialization. It is no sure
bet that industrialization will involve reaching
into space at anything near the pace it has for
humans.
One of my college physics professors is a serious
UFO researcher. From what I've seen most
researchers are considerably less serious. I have
seen little effort at data mining from the tremendous
amount which is available. If someone is doing it
they are not advertising to any great extent.
Dennis May
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