From: Emlyn O'regan (oregan.emlyn@healthsolve.com.au)
Date: Mon Oct 28 2002 - 21:02:29 MST
I'm still getting 0.6662, after inverting the random number generation to
make sure that it wasn't affecting the result, after checking the program to
see if it has any obvious faults; nada. Maybe I should post the source, so
someone can figure out why Lee's result differs from mine?
Emlyn
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Lee Daniel Crocker [mailto:lee@piclab.com]
> Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 13:26
> To: extropians@extropy.org
> Subject: Re: Math question
>
>
> > (Emlyn O'regan <oregan.emlyn@healthsolve.com.au>):
> > A question for LDC, a probability-competent individual, out
> of curiosity;
> >
> > It took me about 20 minutes to code up and trivially test
> my brute-force
> > solution, and 40 seconds to do the run which got the final
> answer. How long
> > did the calculations below take you to do? I am guessing
> that this is
> > everyday stuff for you (remind me never to play cards for
> money with you),
> > so I figure it didn't take too long. Our answers came out
> close enough that
> > I'd call the two solutions equivalent (although I'd say 2-1
> odds on a head
> > is a little more marginal).
>
> I don't have a spreadsheet on my computer at work, so I had to resort
> to the paper-and-calculator method. Took about 15-20 minutes (it was
> a slow day at work :-). As it turns out, I did make a small mistake--
> the subtraction for the final numerator. Redoing on Gnumeric at home,
> I get an exact final answer of 692336/1042380, or 0.66418. I
> was a bit
> low, but 2-to-1 is still a good bet.
>
> --
> Lee Daniel Crocker <lee@piclab.com> <http://www.piclab.com/lee/>
> "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein
> and past,
> are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used
> or modified
> for any purpose, without permission, attribution, or
> notification."--LDC
>
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