From: Charlie Stross (charlie@antipope.org)
Date: Wed Oct 16 2002 - 17:06:42 MDT
On Thu, Oct 10, 2002 at 09:52:32AM -0700, Samantha Tennison wrote:
> And here is another surprise from Europe: If present
> demographic trends continue, Europe will become
> muslim. Recently at an Ecunumerical conference in
> England, the head of the Anglican Church called for
> assistance in assimilating Muslims into the
> communities. The leaders of the Muslim church said
> that Muslim's *do not* assimilate, and they they will
> in fact assimilate Europe, and that the majority of
> Europe will be subject to conservative muslim law!
Disagree strongly -- at least in the short (10-100 year) term.
Western Europe is increasingly turning away from religion in general;
less than 60% of the UK's population believe in any kind of deity,
for example, and the level of overt religiosity on display in the USA
is quite disconcerting to one of us who visits you guys. It's not just
the UK, either; about the only seriously religious states left in the
region are Ireland, Poland, and some eastern parts. (Even Italy is seeing
a drastic decline in the viability of the Church.)
There are major demographic trends in train that could upset this, of
course. Chief among these is the collapse in the birth rate in western
Europe, which is being counter-balanced by a level of immigration
from the south and east that is increasing to a level comparable to
immigration into the US from Latin America. Many of the immigrants
are from muslim countries -- but it would be a mistake to view them as
fundamentalists. For example, Germany's large Turkish minority are muslim,
but there's relatively little tradition of wahabite-style fundamentalism
there.
Moreover an interesting demographic trend turned up in the USA recently;
in addition to the birth rate among first generation immigrants being
high, the birth rate among the established older ethnic groups has
begun to rise from the sub-replacement levels of the 1970's and 1980's.
It is possible that the birth rate in the EU will reverse its decline,
within a matter of a few years -- we simply don't have enough data to
know what conditions gave rise to it and what may cure it.
Basically, if the original European populations continue to reproduce
at an average birth rate of 1.1 children per female, then in a few
generations the main population will change to an immigrant base; and
if those Muslim community leaders can hold it together they *might*
stand a chance. But I wouldn't bet on it; an evening spent wandering
around pubs in Bradford will show you just how much respect for
the Koranic injunctions against alcohol the second and third generation
muslim population of the UK has ...
-- Charlie
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