From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Fri Aug 23 2002 - 19:45:07 MDT
On Fri, 23 Aug 2002, spike66 wrote:
> I did the calcs and confidently predict the probability of a space elevator
> in the next 15 years at zero. The probability of a space elevator in 25
> years at verrry near zero. Probability in 50 years, assuming no singularity
> and optimistic assumptions regarding material science, ~20%.
Based on what assumptions? This statement is even more handwaving
than I typically do.
> I derived the equation for the mass of a space cable about 10 years
> ago and published them in an appendix of an engineering paper.
> I should resurrect those. spike
Indeed you should spike so we can compare it with any numbers in
the NIAC study papers.
Furthermore, if your collision numbers are realistic, we should
be communicating them to the people promoting the development
of this idea so we can stop spending money on the idea if its
a complete boondoggle.
Get thee up off thoust lazy butt and cook us up some beef!
Robert
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 09:16:23 MST