From: Phil Osborn (philosborn2001@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Aug 20 2002 - 20:08:22 MDT
OK, so I already had positions with some real losers -
so far - Geron and Alteon... If I had not just moved
and couldn't find my share certificates, I would've
definitely cashed out of Geron at $50 - now at about
$5. o'well.
But, I figured, I've got a little case to throw
around, so what looks good. My criteria:
1> I have to know something about the company. I'm
not playing the numbers here.
2> I have to have some degree of expertise in the
field of products that gives me an edge in grasping
the real value of the company.
3> The stock must be at a near low.
4> The prospects must be good - or the price must be
REALLY good on a higher risk.
So: my picks = Neotherapeutics (neot), Ceradyne
(crdn), Liquid Metals (lqmt).
So I bought in about ten days ago. So far, Ceradyne
has gone down slightly - about 6%, Neotherapeutics has
gone up 40%, and Liquid Metals by about 80%. I
suspect that all of them are still much undervalued,
but I could be totally wrong.
Neot, in particular, which I spend only a token amount
on, is at 0.14 now, up from 0.10 where I bought in.
This is WAY, WAY down from a year ago, when the stock
was several dollars per share, but there's a
significant chance the company could go under as well.
Both Ceradyne and Liguid Metals appear to have very
strong fundamentals, both in their product line and
the underlying market demand for it, as well as
extremely good future prospects, and excellent
internal stability. My guess is that both companies
will go to $20 before year's end, even if the U.S.
gets into a stupid military conflict in Iraq. In
fact, that could push both companies a lot higher as
they both specialize in advanced materials ideal for
military use - although with thousands of other major
applications barely touched so far.
So, let's see how stupid I look at year's end.... ;)
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