From: Reason (reason@exratio.com)
Date: Tue Aug 06 2002 - 23:47:47 MDT
--> Samantha Atkins
> > Phil Osborn wrote:
> >
> >>Looks like a good time to start considering putting
> >>some money on the market. Of course, the more of us
> >>who invest, the more those stocks rise, right?
> >>
> >>Who knows how many eager would-be bulls are out there
> >>just champing at the bit waiting for the hot tip from
> >>the bright guys and gals at the cutting edge?
>
>
> My advice, for what it's worth, is stay the hell out of the
> stock market except to get rid of existing stocks and sell short
> (if you know enough to do so). The worse is, imho, very far
> from over.
But of course the best advice is to diversify more than you already are,
whatever the market is doing. No reason not to take the long term view.
There's the school of thought that says it's all over (for various good
sounding fundamentals reasons) and there's the school that says we're headed
for DOW 4000 (for various good sounding fundamentals reasons).
My 2c: historically speaking, the markets are way high. Companies average
P/E ratios of twice the historical average during boom-bust midpoints. So
either you believe that the effects of certain fundamental general
improvements in technology mean that businesses now merit this higher P/E
valuation, or you don't. If you don't, then you should act as if the DOW is
headed for 4000 sometime over the next couple of years. If you do, then
we're done with the worst of it.
Politics aside, of course. Goverment, often at the behest of large incumbent
business concerns, can screw the markets up the point of collapse with
comparatively little effort.
Reason
http://www.exratio.com/
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