From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Thu Aug 01 2002 - 15:17:07 MDT
Samantha, responding to Brian wrote:
> I don't think it is that simple.
And I would agree. I've been chasing a reference around
the net for the last couple of days that occurs in the
NSF report on converging technologies -- a quote that Robert
Lucky, author of Silicon Dreams, "claimed" that humans
could only absorb data at a rate of 50-55 bits per second.
(http://itri.loyola.edu/ConvergingTechnologies/Report/NBIC_B_HumanCognition.pdf)
This raises a number of issues as to whether that is data
that can be "memorized" or "recognized" because the bandwidths
for these functions are very different.
But I would say (from a stockholder/taxpayer perspective) that
the burden of proof rests on the shoulders of the telcoms
that a significant majority of people need/want fiber bandwidth
to the final mile. I'm quite content with my NY Times "data"
feed at ADSL speeds (multi-hundred-K bits/sec) when it seems
to me that the constraint on how fast I am served data resides
on the server end of the connection, and not the client end.
Fiber for the final mile doesn't buy me anything unless I'm
willing to "pay" to upgrade the NY Times servers. I'm
unwilling to do that unless it costs me < $1.00/month (to
pick an arbitrary figure low enough that it falls beneath
my attention threshold).
People have argued that "movies on demand" and/or "immersion"
in VR worlds will drive the need for high bandwidth to the
final mile. I'm not buying it. I can rent a variety of
movies (VHS or DVD fmt) at my local grocery store and have
yet to be enrolled into EverQuest as a form of "must have"
entertainment.
Make the case -- someone show me why I "must have" a
data feed at higher than 50-55 bits/sec...
Robert
N.B. Perhaps worth reading might be "FEASTING ON THE GIANT PEACH"
by George Gilder, published in 1996.
http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~gaj1/feastgg.html
One can exponentially expand the connectivity of people but
one can't exponentially expand their ability to absorb the
information presented by that connectivity. At least not
at this time.
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