From: Amara Graps (amara@amara.com)
Date: Fri Jul 19 2002 - 12:18:58 MDT
spike66, Tue Jul 16, 2002 11:59 pm:
>The motorcycle vs bicycle risk debate is very complicated. If we
>restrict risk to looking only at risk of death, then it depends on how
>you count it.
Yes, any risk assessment is complicated. I tried to find some data
where we could compare apples to apples.
-----------------------
Here's some data from Great Britain:
Motorcycle Road Accidents: Great Britain 1998
http://www.transtat.dft.gov.uk/facts/accident/mcycle/mcycle98.htm
"Key Statistics
* 24,969 Injury Accidents Involving Motorcycles
* 498 Motorcyclist Deaths
* 5,944 Serious Injuries
* 18,168 Slight Injuries"
Pedal Cyclists in Road Accidents: Great Britain 1998
http://www.transtat.dft.gov.uk/facts/accident/bicycle/cycle98.htm
Key Statistics
* 158 Killed
* 3,154 Seriously Injured
* 19,611 Slightly Injured
"1. (i) 22,923 pedal cyclists were killed or injured in
road accidents in 1998, making pedal cyclists the fourth
largest group of casualties, after car occupants,
pedestrians and TWMV users. "
^^^^^^^^
(two-wheeled motor vehicle)
-------------------------
>As a function of distance, bicycles are about twice as risky as
>motorcycles per mile. As a function of time in participation,
>motorcycles are about twice as risky as bicycles per hour or riding.
This makes no sense to me. Data please? (Take your time, though.. I'm
leaving for more travel late next week and won't be able to follow this
up until August-sometime)
The British Transportation discussed the 'distance parameter':
http://www.transtat.dft.gov.uk/personal/cycl_acc.htm
"The number of people killed or seriously injured provides a very simple
measure of the danger of travel by a particular mode of transport.
However, it makes no allowance for the number of people using the
particular mode of transport, or the distance travelled. These can be
taken into account by calculating casualty rates. The most commonly used
rates are based on the two measures of exposure which are generally
readily available: numbers in the population and vehicle-kilometres.
Other rates are also used, such as per trip or per hour, but reliable
data are less readily available."
[...]
"Rates per vehicle-kilometre are more useful when considering the
relative safety of operation of a particular type of vehicle (or their
drivers) and in comparisons of casualties by road type (major and minor
roads; built-up and non built-up areas). However, from the perspective
of passenger safety, such rates do not allow for differences in vehicle
passenger capacity nor differences in occupancy."
[...]
and further down on that page:
"Table 19 shows the different rates of injury per passenger-kilometre for
five modes of travel. Motorcycles were the most dangerous mode in this
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
respect, with 1,510 KSI casualties per billion passenger-kilometres.
Walking and cycling were about half as dangerous, with car, taxi and bus
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
travel many times safer."
-------------------------
>So if you want to ride all day, the safety minded person takes a
>bicycle. If you need to ride to Sacramento from here, the safety minded
>person rides a motorcycle.
I'm really skeptical, Spike. I couldn't find data for the 'time
parameter' though.
>Even those figures are subject to debate.
I'm sure .... :-)
>If risk includes risk of injury, the picture gets even murkier.
In risk assessment, does one include the 'benefits' ? I'm not sure
but I think that we should include the happiness factor for air running
through a motorcyclist's ears and the cardiovascular and other health
benefits for pumping the bicycle pedals.
-------------------------------
On this 'Alternatives to the Automobile' page,
http://www.ucolick.org/~de/AltTrans/roadsafety.html
the author wrote an excellent essay, the part most relevant to this
discussion is: "Road Safety, Part III: Measuring Risk " and "Road Safety
Part IV: How Does Cycling Compare? " He says:
"We could also compare the risk of other activities of which we have some
intuitive "risk perception". What's the risk of dying per million hours
of exposure to a wide range of activities? According to Failure
Associates, a professional risk assessment firm, the numbers look like
this:
Skydiving 128.71
General Flying 15.58
Motorcycling 8.80 <----
Scuba Diving 1.98
Living 1.53 <---- !!
Swimming 1.07
Snowmobiling .88
Motoring .47
Water skiing .28
Bicycling .26 <----
Airline Flying .15
Hunting .08
It seems a little odd that cycling should be safer than living! But all
this means is that if you were magically immune to every other kind of
risk, and you did nothing but ride a bicycle 24 hours a day, you would
live far longer than the average person. In reality, some other higher
risk (or inevitable old age) will eventually catch up with you. It's
pretty intuitive that skydiving should be a hazardous activity, but most
people would be surprised to find that cycling rates as safer than
swimming! And most people would hotly deny that cycling is safer than
driving (motoring)."
-------------------------------
>Either way, my concern for you, my evil/good twin, is not injury
>sustained while riding the bicycle, but rather that in your touring you
>will wander into the wrong neighborhood, where there are those who would
>do you harm.
My bicycle is faster than running humans, even when it is loaded
with gear ...
[My Steed (Port Sines, Portugal)
http://www.amara.com/parkedbike@Sines_50.jpg ]
However, running little ugly dogs are a different matter. I have trouble
outbicycling them, unless I'm on a downhill.
>This being said, I have suggested before in this forum that there
>should be a universal GPS map or database to clue people where to
>stay out of. This would be a much more effective safety device
>than a helmet.
I think that you're removing the challenge and the joy of discovery this
way. Learn to be smart, using your wits, your senses, your intuiton,
and your observational skills.
>spike
For you, some beautiful pics:
Seaguls at Cabo da Roca, Portugal (A. Graps 21 June 2002)
http://www.amara.com/seagulls@cabodarocha_70.jpg
Sesimbra, Portugal (A. Graps 23 June 2002)
http://www.amara.com/sesimbrawall+beach_50.jpg
Amara
-- ******************************************************************** Amara Graps, PhD email: amara@amara.com Computational Physics vita: ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt Multiplex Answers URL: http://www.amara.com/ ******************************************************************** "Whenever I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race." -- H. G. Wells
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