From: marc_geddes (marc_geddes@yahoo.co.nz)
Date: Sat Jul 13 2002 - 00:59:41 MDT
[quote from: Anders on 2002-07-12 at 15:10:26]
On Fri, Jul 12, 2002 at 12:08:06AM -0600, marc_geddes wrote a charming
semi-rant on how political inertia and dogma on Earth is making the move
to Mars a necessary option.
Thanks Anders ;)
While I think space colonies are very good things and wholeheartedly
would support any realistic project to achieve them, I think the basic
idea of the post is wrong. The exit strategy doesn't work for us.
The exit strategy consists of moving somewhere else (or possibly isolate
oneself in an enclave) if society doesn't fit and build a new one from
scratch. It worked great in the Americas. The basic problem is that this
only works for relatively low-tech societies: by moving away you cut
yourself off from the economic infrastructure of the larger society, and
this will by necessity make your own economy far less complex. Building
an economy complex and large enough to sustain both chip foundries and
advanced medical biotech requires quite a bit of work and a sizeable
population - or that you are a part of a larger economy. This means that
setting up a transhumanist space habitat would take a lot of our time
and effort directed simply into building the basis for the economy that
would in the long run be used to develop the advanced tech we speak
about. Most likely the rest of the world economy - despite statism and
inertia - would outrace this project.
Er... an 'exit strategy' is not what I had in mind. I certainly don't think
that transhumanist Mars colonies would entail 'cutting ourselves off from
the
economic infrastructure of the larger society' . I was thinking of something
along the lines of Robert Zubrin's ideas.
We would still be trading with Earth and we would own space based businesses
on Earth. We would be in constant contact with Earth, including full
exchange
of information via Earth and Mars based internets.
The reason I advocate the Mars colonies is to escape restrictive regulations
on technology, reduce the risks of techno-disasters (by relocating
state-of-the-art-research to Mars), and experiment with new political
systems.
One of the ironies in my BIGV sf setting is that the extropians who
colonized the planet Atlantis
(http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/Game/BigIdeas/atlantis.html) got the free
high-tech society they wanted - but missed out on the Singularity at
home in the solar system. Ten billion normals can out-invent and
out-think 10,000 transhumanists.
I don't think so. Remember that even on Mars we can have full access to
Earth
based research via the internet so we will know everything going on back
home. Further more, we will not have to work under restrictive Earth-based
regulations. I have read a paper somewhere (and I will try to find the
article) which claims that 50% of all valuable scientific research is done
by
the brainest 1% of the academic community. (or some such figure) My bet
would
be on the 10,000 transhumanists to beat the ten billion normals.
Second, if one believes that luddites and anti-tech groups will become
so powerful that they block all transhumanist technology on Earth, why
do one believe they would let it continue on Mars (or L5, the asteroids
etc)? This is the same problem as the various proposals for oceanias and
living on international waters have. It might be too expensive and
troublesome to hunt people across interplanetary distances, but if it
is, then one has to wonder about how troublesome it would be to colonize
across the same distances.
Well, it's the fear of techno-disasters that anti-tech groups claim to be
most
concerned about. Why should they worry when the research is space-based?
On
Mars there is no eco-system to destroy, and the people in the colonies would
be volunteers.
Third, dreaming about the free state, libertopia, oceania and so on is a
waste of political thinking. It is *fun* drafting constitutions and
thinking up better ways of doing things (I do it all the time). But it
is also a way of avoiding having to deal with pre-existing conditions
which means one can play even if one's understanding of politics and
social psychology isn't that good. As long as it isn't put to the test
the flaws will not show.
The purpose of the space colonies would be to test new politicial ideas for
use back on Earth.
I think we can achieve far more by building things *here*. Yes, there
are plenty of fools around and oppressive structures. But there are also
lots of people, resources, a huge international economy to supply us
with equipment and many more with the same vision. How many of us would
be willing just to move from our current houses and jobs to go to Alaska
or New Hampshire to help the libertarians? if you are not seriously
considering that, what about going to *Mars*? On the other hand, many
more would be willing to participate in new institutions and systems
(some possibly illegal in some jurisdictions) that could circumvent,
undermine or change current institutions. Ideas are powerful, and ideas
can change stasist and statist systems. I actually think it is a more
feasible to create a pro-progress, pro-freedom region on Earth than to
build a Mars colony. The latter is a problem that can be phrased in
technology, but will in the end come down to the same problems of
ideology, economics and politics that are needed anyway to change things
here.
I'm not so sure. It may become neccessary to establish a Mars colony
precisely in order to create a pro-progress, pro-freedom region on Earth.
There is the argument from existential risk - that's a big argument for
space
colonies. It may simply be too risky to fully develop bio-tech, nano-tech
and
AI on Earth. If something goes wrong - grey goo. At least in space
colonies
disasters would not affect the people back home.
By all means go to L5, Mars and the stars (and I might even go with
you!), but be aware that it is not the only solution.
O.K.
-- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! asa@nada.kth.se http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/ GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y ---- This message was posted by marc_geddes to the Extropians 2002 board on ExI BBS. <http://www.extropy.org/bbs/index.php?board=61;action=display;threadid=52429 >
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