From: Phil Osborn (philosborn2001@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Jun 18 2002 - 21:49:33 MDT
Somewhere back there in the posts of the past week,
there was one from some person who challenged
everything I said in a prior post from his position of
authority, so of course I tended to discount
everything he said, as my experience is that arguing
from authority carries a very high likelihood that the
position is utterly wrong. In addition, I have a
pretty good record of prognostication in the areas in
question, altho I'm always happy to learn if I'm
wrong.
Anyway, the gist of my post was that perhaps real AI,
or at least smart enough simulations of such to cause
interesting legal delimnas, might sneak in the back
door via the gaming scene in the "near future." By
that, I was thinking five to ten years. There was a
news brief in the papers a month or two back to the
effect that Intel said that they were going to have
processors for desktop running at 2,000 GHz within
five years. Similar news had been reported from IBM
re their ultra-hi-density drives, and someone else -
anybody recall who? - said something similar about
memory, all in the same near-term frame of up to five
years.
With that kind of processing power, it will be possile
to have much smarter characters - and to train them at
home with lots of really big simulations of
simulations before letting them out to play in a
"real" game.
Then, of course, there's CYC, which is supposedly
available for public experimentation. So, all we need
is a few people like the guys who blew the whole video
rendering market wide open with the Toaster, and
things start getting really interesting.
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup
http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 09:14:54 MST