From: John Grigg (starman2100@lycos.com)
Date: Sat Jun 15 2002 - 17:58:29 MDT
Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>
> We're talking 22 years minimum if the technology were ready today.
> We're talking 27-32 years if the technology is available today. We're
> talking 32-42 years if it has to go through FDA and government
> approvals. Who knows how many additional years to gain public
> preference over traditional mating.
>
> I doubt that the movie GATTACA could reasonably occur in real life until
> after 2050.
>
Brian Atkins replied:
I hope Hal and everyone else here who still has dreams of "bio" technologies
having any real chance of coming before AI takes this estimate and sticks
it deep in their heads and cogitates a bit more on what a truly realistic
view of the future is likely to be.
Going back to your question the other day Hal about whether we should worry
more about bio and nano coming first, I hope this helps. As for nano think
about it like this: we don't really have anything really to worry about
there until we get the fully fledged final stage of it ("drextech"). What
comes before that is a long string of intermediate stage technologies which
will have many spinoffs, including- you guessed it- extremely powerful
computer technologies. We'll get massively powerful computer hardware well
before drextech.
(end)
Brian, I just KNEW somehow that either you or Eliezer would make this needed correction!! : ) I actually prefer your scenario to the "Beggars in Spain" one written in novelized form by the gifted science fiction author Nancy Kress.
By the way, Damien REALLY disliked GATTACA! But it happens to be one of my favorite films.
best wishes,
John
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