From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Sat Jun 15 2002 - 11:51:58 MDT
On Saturday, June 15, 2002, at 12:14 pm, Hal Finney wrote:
> it might not be long before we do have a world
> where there is a divide between those who are born naturally and those
> who have been screened.
Even if everybody decided to switch to genetically-engineered babies
today, it would take a year to get these kids born, and another 21 years
to get them to voting age. Even if the technology was ready today, it
would be 22 years minimum before the first ones showed up.
But the technology isn't ready today. It will take 5-10 years before we
can completely rewrite the human genome. It will take another 5-10
years to get through animal and human trials before we can even ask the
FDA or governments of the world to allow it.
We're talking 22 years minimum if the technology were ready today.
We're talking 27-32 years if the technology is available today. We're
talking 32-42 years if it has to go through FDA and government
approvals. Who knows how many additional years to gain public
preference over traditional mating.
I doubt that the movie GATTACA could reasonably occur in real life until
after 2050.
-- Harvey Newstrom, CISSP <www.HarveyNewstrom.com> Principal Security Consultant <www.Newstaff.com>
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