Re: group-based judgement

From: spike66 (spike66@attbi.com)
Date: Thu May 30 2002 - 22:25:13 MDT


Harvey Newstrom wrote:

>> Well, 63%. But lets not get all mathematical. {8^D
>
>
> This is off-list because I am sick of arguing online. I may drop out
> of the list.

aww harvey dont get discouraged. this latest argument will blow
over. take a week off.

i do find it odd, since i know both you and lee personally, and
both of you are such nice guys. i dont understand why you and he
seem to keep getting into it.

myself i dont argue much onlist, since i recognize my politics
are different than many, and its pointless as all hell. like you,
i dont want to be associated with some of the views posted
on extropians. such as samantha's, HOly schlaMOly. {8^D

> If you reject all the kloongs and only pick fleebs, then your 10
> mushrooms per meal are all fleebs. If every tenth fleeb is bad, on
> average you will get one bad fleeb every meal. Every single meal will
> make you sick.

the way that is calculated is thus:

suppose you drop two coins on the floor. the chance of at
least one being heads is 1-0.5^2. or 0.75

if you randomly choose and devour 10 fleebs, knowing that
10% of fleebs are bad, then your chance of suffering gastronomic
distress is 1-0.9^10 or about 65.13%. similarly, if you choose
and devour 5 kloongs, your chance of barfing is about 1-0.8^5
or about 67.23%. if one in a jillion is bad on average and
you randomly choose and devour exactly a jillion, your
probability is 1-1/e, or 63.212%. {8-]

isnt that a cool function? it works because the
limit as n approaches infinity of (1+1/n)^n = e and
(1-1/n)^n = 1/e. i am sooooo cooled out by this,
i lie awake at night marvelling at it all. there aint a
god, but if there was, she would be a mathematician.

harvey dont go away pal, we love you man.

we value your balancing influence. we value your
perspective on security. we grok your sense of fair
play. lay out a few days and let the corbin difficulty
be bygones. certainly it wasnt my intent to get you
irate, and i really dont think it was his either. you
guys just disagree. {8-] spike

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>
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