Re: group-based judgement

From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Thu May 30 2002 - 12:34:11 MDT


On Thursday, May 30, 2002, at 11:13 am, spike66 wrote:

> Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>
>>> You collect two kinds of mushrooms, the
>>> fleebs and the kloongs. 10% of the fleebs will give you
>>> diarrhea, whereas 20% of the kloongs will. You know that
>>> most will not harm you at all, but you know that devouring
>>> a kloong is twice as dangerous as eating a fleeb.
>>
>> In your above example, picking the "good" mushrooms will statistically
>> make you sick every tenth mushroom. If you eat 10 mushrooms in a
>> meal, you still get sick 100% of the time.
>
> Well, 63%. But lets not get all mathematical. {8^D

This is off-list because I am sick of arguing online. I may drop out of
the list.

If you reject all the kloongs and only pick fleebs, then your 10
mushrooms per meal are all fleebs. If every tenth fleeb is bad, on
average you will get one bad fleeb every meal. Every single meal will
make you sick.

--
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP <www.HarveyNewstrom.com>
Principal Security Consultant <www.Newstaff.com>


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